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February 2019 Observations


yotaman
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It's been a steady mix of wet snow and sleet for the past couple of hours. Temp down to 33.4 IMBY. This has gotten colder more quickly than anticipated.

I've got a nice slushy accumulation on my back deck. The driveway is also beginning to accumulate the sleet pellets. Over performing, for sure, here in Hickory!

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So I’m noticing that my temp is falling a couple degrees faster than most of the hi-res guidance, even accounting for the earlier onset of precip than what was shown. Even the NAM is a degree too warm. I’m wondering if that since the models are showing rain, but we’re actually seeing lots of frozen precip at the surface; that the models are slow to cool because they aren’t accounting for atmospheric heat being removed to melt the snow/sleet.

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3 minutes ago, WSchew said:

So I’m noticing that my temp is falling a couple degrees faster than most of the hi-res guidance, even accounting for the earlier onset of precip than what was shown. Even the NAM is a degree too warm. I’m wondering if that since the models are showing rain, but we’re actually seeing lots of frozen precip at the surface; that the models are slow to cool because they aren’t accounting for atmospheric heat being removed to melt the snow/sleet.

Plus you have to take into account that as frozen precip (snow/sleet) melts it takes heat from the air. It's the opposite of freezing rain which adds heat as it freezes. 

Edit: I didn't read your last line ^_^

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2 minutes ago, bannerdude said:

Sleet is accumulating on most elevated surfaces here. Haven't seen snowflakes yet.

See that heavy/bright band running through Durham into north Wake County:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0C-1-24

You want to be just north of those returns (which represent sleet). 

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