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Overrunning Set-Up/Ice Storm 2/5-2/8


Frog Town

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AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ROCK
ISLAND...NORTHWESTERN MERCER...SCOTT...EASTERN MUSCATINE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CST...

At 547 PM CST, strong thunderstorms were located near Fairport, or
near Muscatine, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Sleet and half inch hail are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Davenport, Moline, Rock Island, Bettendorf, Muscatine, East Moline,
Durant, Silvis, Eldridge, DeWitt, Milan, Le Claire, Coal Valley,
Hampton, Port Byron, Walcott, Blue Grass, Buffalo, Andalusia and
Rapids City.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 74 in Iowa between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 280 and 306.
 Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 1 and 4.
 Interstate 74 in Illinois between mile markers 1 and 6.
 Interstate 88 between mile markers 1 and 6.
 Interstate 280 between mile markers 1 and 18.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to ponding of water on roadways. With temperatures in the upper 20s
to low 30s, rapid icing is also possible on surfaces.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storms. Lightning can
strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside
a building or vehicle.
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23 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Power went out for a few mins.  Hope it doesn't go out for good.  Glad the heaviest frz rain is almost done.  It sounded like a summer night there for awhile.  Most thunder from a cold precip event I've ever seen.

Yes, the amount of frequent lightning and thunder was really impressive! Heck, most of our recent warm, thunderstorm events didn't have that much of a light show! 

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN is up to 0.71" of precip so far.  Very impressive.  My station gauge is frozen up and showing 0.00" for the day.  Guessing at least half an inch of precip has fallen.

Fortunately if the rain falls that fast it’s extremely hard to have decent accretion - so that’s a plus on the ice accums part for many in the sub. Hoping to get into some of what you got over there - wouldn’t mind some thunder and lightning to go with my ice.

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2 minutes ago, ams30721us said:

Yes, the amount of frequent lightning and thunder was really impressive! Heck, most of our recent warm, thunderstorm events didn't have that much of a light show! 

Yeah if it wasn't so cold out I would have loved to head outside of town and try to get some lightning shots.

 

2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Fortunately if the rain falls that fast it’s extremely hard to have decent accretion - so that’s a plus on the ice accums part for many in the sub. Hoping to get into some of what you got over there - wouldn’t mind some thunder and lightning to go with my ice.

Yeah no doubt the fast precip rate cut into the accretion.  Have probably a few tenths or so.  If this much precip fell over a longer span it would have been a lot worse.

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37 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN is up to 0.71" of precip so far.  Very impressive.  My station gauge is frozen up and showing 0.00" for the day.  Guessing at least half an inch of precip has fallen.

I've had my Davis freeze like that a few times. I have two CoCoRaHS  gauges as a manual backup. Sounds like a mess out there. It must be neat to experience a zr thunderstorm.

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It's like a tropical downpour right now, and still only 31.

Rain is way too heavy to have much, if any, accum though. With heavy rates like this you need temps in the mid-20's or lower.

So looks like QPF amounts will work out, but ice accrual amounts will under-perform due to high rates in a more marginal temp environment.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

It's like a tropical downpour right now, and still only 31.

Rain is way too heavy to have much, if any, accum though. With heavy rates like this you need temps in the mid-20's or lower.

So looks like QPF amounts will work out, but ice accrual amounts will under-perform due to high rates in a more marginal temp environment.

probably a good thing. 1/2 inch of ice would not be good at 25 degrees.

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DTX AFD update mentions the possibility of an upgrade to warning.

Quote

In response to the choice of headlines, the possibility remains that
at least a portion of the Winter Weather Advisory may require an
upgrade to an Ice Storm Warning. Flexibility exists within the
headline decision making process. Rather than working off of strict
threshold guidelines, consideration is given to specific details of
the event-at-hand for the anticipated impacts. With regards to icing
events, considerations include impacts to travel, potential for
power outages, and recovery/response time. Regarding this particular
event, widespread travel difficulties are anticipated due to icy
roadways late tonight through Wednesday morning. However,
temperatures warming above freezing during the late morning and early
afternoon should help to improving travel relatively quickly for
treated surfaces. What is of high confidence for this event is the
negligible wind, forecasting easterly winds of less than 15 knots
throughout the entirety of the event. This is expected to limit the
amount of power outages across the area. Isolated power outages will
remain possible due to convective rainfall rates.

No significant changes were needed for the grids, no changes are
being made to the headlines.

 

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