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February Banter 2019


George BM
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Was thinking about how I grade winters this morning. We all do it. To me am A is reserved for the truly epic winters. 1987, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014. 

I might be a tough grader on an A but those are probably the only ones I’ve experienced. 

I am probably an easier grader on a C “average” or D “bad”. Seems some throw anything worse than good unto the F category.  To me an F is reserved for the equally god awful winters like 2002, 2008, 2012...

But what about a solid good B winter.  I realized there are 3 ways a winter can get into the good category for me. 

1.  An HECS. I love big storms. I don’t care if it’s a one hit wonder if I get a 20” snowstorm it’s at least a B winter. 

2.  A string of “good” storms. 3 or more 5”+ snowstorms or two 8”+.  When I was in VA that bar was three 3”+ storms or two 6”+.

3.  A 10+ day period with solid snowcover and cold or 2 different 7 day periods like that.  That was probably more like a 7 day period in VA or two 5 day periods. 

The final snowfall total isn’t as important as getting one of those 3. I’ve had winters with below my median snowfall that I enjoyed way more than winters I beat median but nickel and dimed my way there and never held snowcover long. 

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8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Serious question. Why does every model always show a -nao at the end of every run that never verifies?

This is an educated guess but I think there are some background pattern influencers like enso sst that argue for a -NAO. But the mjo has been muting it. The NAO has been mostly neutral to slightly negative. The guidance is not properly calculating the mjo at range. 

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19 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Here is his general recipe. What do you think?

IPA Recipe

The objective is to make an IPA with an IBU no more than 50 and ABV around 6.0%. I used the following online calculators to get the required numbers and proportions for the recipe. This procedure will be done 3 times, and each batch divided in 2 for fermentation using different yeast strains. This will make a total of 6 different beer brews with each using a different yeast.

https://www.brewersfriend.com/allgrain-ogfg/

https://www.grainfather.com/brewing-calculators

https://www.hopsteiner.com/ibu-calculator/


Batch size: 23L
Grain weight: Approximately 6 Kg
Boil Time: 60 min

Based on this, 19.7 L of mash water is required

Grain Specifics:
5.5 Kg of Maris Otter
0.3 Kg of Crystal 40L

Based on this, the pre-boil Original Gravity is 1.051
Estimated Final Gravity is 1.018
Estimated ABV is 6.1%

For the hops:

Columbus has an alpha acid percent of 15%
Quantity to be used: 8.5 grams

Citra has an alpha acid percent of 12%
Quantity to be used: 15 grams

Cascade has an alpha acid percent of 6%
Quantity to be used: 28 grams

Add columbus early in the boil for bittering, then some Citra more towards the middle of the boil, and then Cascade would be added last for aroma and flavor. Target is around 45 IBU. I dont want the hops to be too strong as the goal is to detect flavor characteristics imparted by the different yeast strains.
 

Add Columbus first, at the beginning of the boil. 
Add Citra next, in the middle of the boil. (30 mins in)
Add Cascade last, towards the end of the boil. (45 mins in)

Estimated IBU = 44, using Tinseth method

Looks good!  Let us know how it all turns out.

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41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think my target period is a little after his but either way same result. More snow. 

My target period is basically from next weekend through the end of snow season. I don't have any specific windows. Just have unusual confidence with getting more snow this month (and hopefully March)

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40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think my target period is a little after his but either way same result. More snow. 

MJO looking more positive for the second half of February as you say.  I can't help but to feel a little cheated.  The MJO has been taking its sweet time meandering around the warm phases most of Met winter.  The only two times it was even briefly good there was some action around.  The northern SE got a big hit in early December and the southern half of your area got a nice hit in mid January.  I cant help but to have the feeling that this winter really "wanted" op be epic, if it hadn't been crashed.

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30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Question: All of our biggest storms (like the ones that were an area-wide 12-24+ inches) coastal runners? Or were there some instances of a juiced up slider that moved slowly or something?

Most of our big storms come in 2 pieces and contain both a defined mid level and surface low and also a trailing upper level low . The front side is warm air advection snow which is lower ratio and then colder/higher ratio snow as the surface and upper level lows track east and then north of our area. Upper level low snowfall is my favorite. High ratio and heavy rates. We had a taste of that with the good storm in Jan.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Was that pathetic personal foul call a payback for the NO non call on that dude?

I really don't understand NFL football anymore. Guy catches  pass, but gets tackled TOO SOON. Personal foul. WTF?

Yeah I don’t know what that was.   You have to give him a chance to become a runner?   When did that become the rule?

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10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Was that pathetic personal foul call a payback for the NO non call on that dude?

I really don't understand NFL football anymore. Guy catches  pass, but gets tackled TOO SOON. Personal foul. WTF?

I'm not sure why they bothered with that explanation.  It was clearly helmet to helmet.

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm not sure why they bothered with that explanation.  It was clearly helmet to helmet.

The official on the field said hit to defenseless receiver, and the on air dude gave that bullshit explanation backing it up. I didn't see a clear replay, but maybe it was that. Not the call though.

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