February Banter 2019

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

appreciate the feedback from Boston

Yeah, I like how he/she came in the storm thread to tell us about how aggressive the warm layer has been. Because none of us have been following that and harping on it for days.

[mappy]

Just now, snowfan said:

Yeah, I like how he/she came in the storm thread to tell us about how aggressive the warm layer has been. Because none of us have been following that and harping on it for days.

at least they did it in the banter thread. 

[nj2va]

17 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Yeah, less qpf and warmer if anything from yesterday. NWS is going to bust hard with that ridiculously overzealous map they started way too high with. Good rule of thumb, especially in these CAD/marginal temp situations is to start low and take em up the closer you get as need be. Not the other way around as the public now has the wrong idea in their heads.

Phew, without your expertise none of us would know what to expect.  You should get a job at LWX.

[Jandurin]

i'd rather LWX go high than low anyway

get people off the roads as much as possible

if you underforecast something like this and a ton of people are on the road it could be real ugly

[BombsAway1288]

21 minutes ago, mappy said:

appreciate the feedback from Boston

No Problem!

15 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Yeah, I like how he/she came in the storm thread to tell us about how aggressive the warm layer has been. Because none of us have been following that and harping on it for days.

 

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Phew, without your expertise none of us would know what to expect.  You should get a job at LWX.

From what I've been reading in the other thread, as recent as yesterday evening, all I was seeing was most people with snow goggles on getting all excited because LWX has DC is the 6-8" zone. Just trying to bring people back to reality and share what trends the models have had this year regarding situations of mid-level warmth being underdone on the models. I think the faster push of the ML warmth was starting to be reflected in the 06Z models this morning whether you guys like it or not.

[BlizzardNole]

57 minutes ago, snowfan said:

...For this storm, you're safe going in expecting the following to happen.......1) we will get a short period of snow accumulating 1-4" depending on your area. 2) That will be followed by a period of sleet going into the early afternoon before transitioning to ZR. 3) The surface cold air will be tough to scour out as it always is, so even while roads may get to that state of just being wet in the late afternoon, raised surfaces/trees will still glaze. 4) eventually we go to light rain/drizzle as we all rise above freezing.

All in!  Four inches would put me at a cool 25" for the winter which is damn good considering how the winter has been for the MA and NE as a whole.  I just looked at snowfall at Boston Logan -- only 8.4" for the whole winter (3.4" for biggest event), and predicted for just 1-2" from this before flipping to rain.  Areas west have fared much better of course but still.  Snow fans up there must be crawling the walls.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

No Problem!

 

From what I've been reading in the other thread, as recent as yesterday evening, all I was seeing was most people with snow goggles on getting all excited because LWX has DC is the 6-8" zone. Just trying to bring people back to reality and share what trends the models have had this year regarding situations of mid-level warmth being underdone on the models. I think the faster push of the ML warmth was starting to be reflected in the 06Z models this morning whether you guys like it or not.

We really don't need someone from Boston coming in and telling us how to track a storm. 

[Jandurin]

tbf i get it

what have they had to track lately?

[BombsAway1288]

Just now, mappy said:

We really don't need someone from Boston coming in and telling us how to track a storm. 

Relax bud. I'm not trying to hurt your ego and tell you guys how to track a storm. As I pointed out last night when everyone was getting all giddy because the inaccurate 18Z snowmaps were dumping on DC, I was just trying translate what the trend has been all year with these types of storms which as been more north than modeled 24+ hrs out and a quicker translation over to sleet and rain. That's all.

I think we continue to see the models warm with the 12Z runs as we draw closer. If that's not the case and you guys do get 6"-10" area wide then I was wrong and congrats. I just don't seeing it play out that way

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

tbf i get it

what have they had to track lately?

Feel free to head up to their subforum the next time they are getting a storm and tell them to keep their shit in check and see the response you get. then report back  

[mappy]

Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

Relax bud. I'm not trying to hurt your ego and tell you guys how to track a storm. As I pointed out last night when everyone was getting all giddy because the inaccurate 18Z snowmaps were dumping on DC, I was just trying translate what the trend has been all year with these types of storms which as been more north than modeled 24+ hrs out and a quicker translation over to sleet and rain. That's all.

I think we continue to see the models warm with the 12Z runs as we draw closer. If that's not the case and you guys do get 6"-10" area wide then I was wrong and congrats. I just don't seeing it play out that way

please dont call me bud. nor do i have any ego issues. i get that Boston is pretty lame this year, but we really don't need your input. thank you again though. 

[mappy]

Just now, wxtrix said:

this storm isn't going to shift enough north to give you a decent snowfall. <sad trombone>

 

 

[BombsAway1288]

Just now, wxtrix said:

p sure I'm getting 3-4 times the amount of snow you are going to get.  sucks to be you.

uumm okay. I never said anything about WV not getting as much snow. And for the record, I'm expecting less than an inch from this before the changeover due to the precip shield just getting eaten up by the time it gets up here.

Anyway, you're the one that lives in West Virginia so tbh, it sucks to be you in reality

[BombsAway1288]

1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

this storm isn't going to shift enough north to give you a decent snowfall. <sad trombone>

I never said it was genius. I'm not expecting anything

[mappy]

1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

uumm okay. I never said anything about WV not getting as much snow. And for the record, I'm expecting less than an inch from this before the changeover due to the precip shield just getting eaten up by the time it gets up here.

Anyway, you're the one that lives in West Virginia so tbh, it sucks to be you in reality

but she has more snow than you, so i think it evens out. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

uumm okay. I never said anything about WV not getting as much snow. And for the record, I'm expecting less than an inch from this before the changeover due to the precip shield just getting eaten up by the time it gets up here.

Anyway, you're the one that lives in West Virginia so tbh, it sucks to be you in reality

Your last line kinda belies the whole "I'm just here to help guys!" act.   You know everyone here, including you, are snow bunnies.  We know the dangers and biases.  It's tough figuring out why you think you need to saunter down here to tell us something we know already?

[BombsAway1288]

Just now, mappy said:

but she has more snow than you, so i think it evens out. 

When I said sucks to be you living in/from West Virginia I was talking about the fact that it sucks to be from there and not comparing seasonal snowfall totals.

I think DCA has more than Boston does this year.

[PhineasC]

LOL SNE

[Fozz]

Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

When I said sucks to be you living in/from West Virginia I was talking about the fact that it sucks to be from there and not comparing seasonal snowfall totals.

I think DCA has more than Boston does this year.

If you're going to post in someone else's subforum, then you aren't going to be well received if you make ignorant comments about where our posters live.

[mappy]

Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

When I said sucks to be you living in/from West Virginia I was talking about the fact that it sucks to be from there and not comparing seasonal snowfall totals.

I think DCA has more than Boston does this year.

Right, so not only have you come south to tell us how to track our snowstorm, help us keep our expectations in check (thanks, what would we do without you), you are also now making fun of one of our subforum members about where she lives. 

You are making a wonderful first impression. 

[BombsAway1288]

Just now, wxtrix said:

well that sucks, huh?  I'm expecting 6-7" from this storm, maybe more. I'm looking forward to seeing heavy snow again.  all you have to look forward to is sad trolling.

Not trolling. Was just pointing out that the ML warmth has been underdone on the models this year up here and everyone got all offended. Yeah, this year has sucked here but I'd much rather be here for snow then where your sub-forum is. Climo

[NorthArlington101]

where is snowchaser? I need good Charlottesville vibes to keep me going

 

[mappy]

Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

Not trolling. Was just pointing out that the ML warmth has been underdone on the models this year up here and everyone got all offended. Yeah, this year has sucked here but I'd much rather be here for snow then where your sub-forum is. Climo

please go back to where "here" is. 

[BombsAway1288]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Your last line kinda belies the whole "I'm just here to help guys!" act.   You know everyone here, including you, are snow bunnies.  We know the dangers and biases.  It's tough figuring out why you think you need to saunter down here to tell us something we know already?

TBH I didn't really know you guys were all over the under doing of the ML warmth. From what I was reading last night, everyone was posting these snowmaps and talking about 6-10" of thump before a changeover. As you can see in my post from last night, I was just reminding everyone about the ML warmth push which some people seemed to be poo pooing. Sorry I didn't have time to go back 8 pages to read and analyze every persons opinion.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

There could be a lot more value added to this post (the dynamics? R/S line? Best qpf?)

what might have been more important to note is the best frontogenesis and UL jet send the dynamics and forcing into SW PA up across the PA pike. As a result, there is less of a dynamically driven envirOnment to produce good rates and in tandem to that snow growth in the GZ. 

The general Synoptics have moved north somewhat, but the NAM’s evolution at levels other than the surface has gone north more consistently than its output verbatim. Just my two pennies. 

smart ass replies like this because you had a problem with me asking you to provide more information, is why i left this place for a while. 

enjoy your snow. 

[BombsAway1288]

1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

no, you weren’t. you are mad that you’re—once again—not getting a big storm so you slithered into our forum just to be a horse’s ass. that’s why you are getting flack, not because we don’t know our own climo.

 

I'm really not though. Yeah it's been a shitty year here but there's going to be ratters and regression. I got 4" yesterday so I'm happy as a big in sh*t for this year. My first post last night ended with a "good luck".  If anything, I was happy for your area/DC area for having a "good" year this year compared to us because the last 3 years have been crap in the Mid-Atlantic. That is until I got attacked.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

TBH I didn't really know you guys were all over the under doing of the ML warmth. From what I was reading last night, everyone was posting these snowmaps and talking about 6-10" of thump before a changeover. As you can see in my post from last night, I was just reminding everyone about the ML warmth push which some people seemed to be poo pooing. Sorry I didn't have time to go back 8 pages to read and analyze every persons opinion.

Of course you didn't have time. Or any interest. Trolls don't need to read for context.

[Fozz]

6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

TBH I didn't really know you guys were all over the under doing of the ML warmth. From what I was reading last night, everyone was posting these snowmaps and talking about 6-10" of thump before a changeover. As you can see in my post from last night, I was just reminding everyone about the ML warmth push which some people seemed to be poo pooing. Sorry I didn't have time to go back 8 pages to read and analyze every persons opinion.

There's a BIG difference between talking about what particular runs and their snow maps show, and thinking that those maps with the 6-10" totals will actually verify. We all know the issues with that WAA and the warm layer, as well as the uncertainty about where the banding will set up.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, mappy said:

smart ass replies like this because you had a problem with me asking you to provide more information, is why i left this place for a while. 

enjoy your snow. 

I think you have me confused with someone else? 

My post has value. Yours doesn’t really. That’s all. 

My thinking aligns with Hoffman’s in that for those outside these bands tossed north by a warm front, there are most certainly going to be winners and losers. @Amped made a great post yesterday talking about this. Precip driven by an adjoined warm front and WAR feature will have a less than perfectly uniform QPF distribution and in the case of our warm nose nudging north quickly at h7, there will be discrepancies in snow that could loom large (2” vs 6” in a 25-30 mile range).

[dailylurker]

Sucks going to bed thinking I'm in for 4-6" and waking up to models saying 1-2" of slop then flooding rain.