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February Banter 2019


George BM

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8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

That's not all the time.. I lived in Sedona for 2 Winter's and the most they got was 2". I think they average 3", with normal January highs around 59. 

It’s highly elevation dependent. Sedona averages 18” a year though. Flagstaff averages a little over 100” and some of the higher peaks in that area average over 250”.  Arizona snow bowl ski resort near there averages 260”.  A lot of that snow (like other southwest ranges such as the Sierra and San Juan’s) comes in sporadic big dumps. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s pretty similar in that the best dynamics are down by you guys at the base of the high but we are also seeing similarities up here now too in that models generated squat up here with that event beyond 72 hours and slowly produced more and more QPF as they resolved the overrunning.  I ended up with over 5 inches and according to most models 3 days out would have had nothing 

No one cares what NYC gets from this in the MA forum.

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Actually 15-21" in Prescott is a really big deal. They average about as much as DCA... maybe a little less.

For sure...I was referring to that area of 30-50” he referred too along the Mogollon Rim. That area averages about 150-200” a year.  This does look like a significant storm for some lower elevation cities that don’t typically get big snow like Prescott. But he made it seem like that area of AZ doesn’t get snow when big snowstorms are fairly common in that general area. This one does seem to be affecting unusually low elevations in the area more than normal. I do think that 1967 storm I brought up gave Prescott 20”+ though. 

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Just now, Scraff said:

Plenty of time for snow chatter over the next 2 days. So how bout that Caps 1st period!? Ovi with number 41. I think he can get 60? Fingers crossed, though all I really care about is “back to back”. B)

My buddy is at the game and sent me a video on IG of the Ovi goal...the place erupted.  So many caps fans there. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

For sure...I was referring to that area of 30-50” he referred too along the Mogollon Rim. That area averages about 150-200” a year.  This does look like a significant storm for some lower elevation cities that don’t typically get big snow like Prescott. But he made it seem like that area of AZ doesn’t get snow when big snowstorms are fairly common in that general area. This one does seem to be affecting unusually low elevations in the area more than normal. I do think that 1967 storm I brought up gave Prescott 20”+ though. 

Flagstaff is a good place to live if you want every winter (or at least most of them) to be like 2009-10.

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s highly elevation dependent. Sedona averages 18” a year though. Flagstaff averages a little over 100” and some of the higher peaks in that area average over 250”.  Arizona snow bowl ski resort near there averages 260”.  A lot of that snow (like other southwest ranges such as the Sierra and San Juan’s) comes in sporadic big dumps. 

no they don't. Flagstaff is about the same as us. 

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22 minutes ago, Ji said:
40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
I over reacted to the NAM earlier. Euro came back south at 18z. Euro/Gfs/fv3/rgem/ggem/icon all target somewhere between northern VA and the PA line.  NAM is still north but often when it’s by itself is when it’s off on a tangent. 
Goalposts keep narrowing and we are still between them!  Fv3 is my favorite so far. It seems to have the most liberal thump coverage and best target trajectory to get the most in here happy.

You overreact lol? Nonsense

Some of us can only aspire to someday attain your pinnacle of calm rational level headed emotionally stable reactions to the weather. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

They average 101.7” according to the National Weather Service. 

https://www.weather.gov/media/wrh/online_publications/TMs/TM-273.pdf

and shut up Chuck. 

Yeah, that is close, at least within 80 inches or so. Course I knew it wouldn't be close, first off, DC doesn't have a ski resort like 5 miles outside it's city limits....

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Off to the airport for a day trip to Boston...best part is no reading the board today as the reality sets in for others that this is and always has been a solid mix storm but not a bomb like some want. New final call for mby lol.

2.8" snow .55 qpf as sleet .45 qpf as 31 degree rain .30 qpf plain rain.

72 degrees on Friday 

Hugs and kisses all wish me luck...flying Southwest 

 

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41 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

I'm mentally preparing myself that this storm busts very low and I end up with an inch of slop, and nothing but green grass by the end of the day as it all turns to rain sooner than advertised

Outside of areas in N MD and S PA, the 6-8 snowfall forecasts in the metros seem(ed) a tad bullish. The warming aloft is real, and without the ideal front end thump, those amounts likely wont be realized. I did a point and click around the DC area and noticed the 3-7" snowfall forecasts. Its a pretty good "cover your ass" call. So if its ends up 2-3, all good. But if its more like 6-7 or even 8, still a good call.

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6 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Not to dump on your party guys but just beware of the quicker flip to sleet/freezing rain. The mid level warmth push has been underdone (at least up here) on the models 24+ hours out in the storms like this one this year.

Also, the RGEM has been terrible 24+ hours out this year also, last year too if I remember correctly. Idk what happened to that model. I used to be so spot on. Maybe it'll actually perform this storm as it does have support.

Either way, good luck down there. Got 4" here today in what has been one of the worst winter seasons of recent memories here.

C6BC1288-A98D-4781-A84A-09E0D36EC77A.jpeg.a5dde2dc285215b599219d7a06f8cce0.jpeg

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Not feeling this one?  Nws seems overly bullish to me. 

I'm not sure 6-8" is possible before the flip. I could see totals being similar to November's storm, where I got 5.5" I think 4-6" is more reasonable for our areas. More for you than me. 

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Anyone expecting more than 2-4, yes.

Well outside the favored areas, yes. Lot of people are hugging snow models and it's gonna burn their asses. 

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