February Banter 2019

[Jandurin]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That was good! The certification is for issuing warnings and being able to do lots of great stuff with AWIPS. Huge step in my forecasting career. I'm pretty excited! 

[Rvarookie]

I wonder if the ground will ever dry out. Only get a day or two of half assed sunshine around these parts before rain and mud. 

[H2O]

43 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Sometimes I can't browse the site because of the drivel. There's some people on here that need to grow up. I'll throw some jokes around, but some people in here are way too serious about stuff out of their control. It's maddening. It's okay to be disappointed, but anger, constant deb on things, and being hostile to others is just out of line. I miss your contributions. Hope you're doing good Andy. 

Its bad.  And the effort to call people out and get them to post better for some reason causes more problems.  Its supposed to be a distraction, hobby.  Not how someone should value their life and worth on if it snows.

i would like to post more and get back to having fun but not when its a drag.  

Thanks for the kind words.  You might be one of the few that does miss my goofiness.  Its been nice to not deal with all the negativity so in that regard I am doing well.  Hope you are doing good too, Scott.

[ErinInTheSky]

23 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I’ll be fishing in Ashburn today.  

There a decent spot with water temps? Until temps hit 48 on the ponds around here, 4MR is the only place I see any action.

[jaydreb]

Just now, supernovasky said:

There a decent spot with water temps? Until temps hit 48 on the ponds around here, 4MR is the only place I see any action.

Temps probably are still too cold but I’m tired of fishing the same spot!

[wxdude64]

32 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That was good! The certification is for issuing warnings and being able to do lots of great stuff with AWIPS. Huge step in my forecasting career. I'm pretty excited! 

Awesome! Good luck. After you are certified, see if you can color in the radar with a HECS for the area last week of Feb.

[nw baltimore wx]

9 hours ago, nj2va said:

Caps playing well so far.  Great bounce in their skate.  

 

8 hours ago, nj2va said:

Ovie with his 39th goal of the season!

 

8 hours ago, nj2va said:

And Oshie with his 500th career point.  Caps are showing their potential tonight.

Dang, that's a nice win.  Too bad I can't stay up for west coast games!

[ErinInTheSky]

18 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Temps probably are still too cold but I’m tired of fishing the same spot!

Well even if you don’t catch anything a bad day fishing is better than a good day working. Tight lines my friend.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Sometimes I can't browse the site because of the drivel. There's some people on here that need to grow up. I'll throw some jokes around, but some people in here are way too serious about stuff out of their control. It's maddening. It's okay to be disappointed, but anger, constant deb on things, and being hostile to others is just out of line. I miss your contributions. Hope you're doing good Andy. 

 

12 minutes ago, H2O said:

Its bad.  And the effort to call people out and get them to post better for some reason causes more problems.  Its supposed to be a distraction, hobby.  Not how someone should value their life and worth on if it snows.

i would like to post more and get back to having fun but not when its a drag.  

Thanks for the kind words.  You might be one of the few that does miss my goofiness.  Its been nice to not deal with all the negativity so in that regard I am doing well.  Hope you are doing good too, Scott.

Totally agree here, and I think WxWatcher made a similar commentary on the subject the other day.  Heck, last year Bob made a specific thread calling this out because it got so bad.  While I get the disappointment and frustration on how things have gone, do we need to see tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth with every comment in the medium range and specific event threads?  It really has gone downhill the past couple of years it seems; sometimes it's unreadable to wade through pages of "next, this sucks, cancel winter!" posts just to get a few good pieces of information on what's going on.  And some of the comments are just flat out incorrect and "out there".  A few humorous cuts are great, but the constant negativity gets really old.

I in no way claim to be the best or most knowledgeable poster on here, and sure, I can get just as frustrated when things don't work out, but I at least try to keep that to myself.  I try to post things that are relevant, ask a question, add information however I can, and even throw in the humorous/snarky comment.  There are a lot of knowledgeable people on here who have better and faster access to information on here than I do, and I always look to them for the intelligent discussion and input.  So... @Bob Chill, @showmethesnow, @psuhoffman, @MillvilleWx, and a few others I probably forgot on here...please don't let the trolls or trollish comments push you away from this site.  Your input is valuable and always appreciated despite some who flood these pages with crap.  And @WxWatcher007, don't get pushed out either...the whole Reaper personality and Panic Room are a hoot, and I'm sure many like the humorous diversion!

Somehow, I almost feel like I made this same post a year or so ago!  Twilight Zone or something...

Oh, and P.S... Millville, best of luck on the Radar Certification...really cool!

[nj2va]

54 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

 

Dang, that's a nice win.  Too bad I can't stay up for west coast games!

Did you remember to take your V8 and calcium supplement?  

[Stormpc]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ve been waiting a long time for this. 

Unreal. You can see the mid February sun angle evaporating that dirt on contact. Fail! We suck. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Unreal. You can see the mid February sun angle evaporating that dirt on contact. Fail! We suck. 

Now that is some funny s*it!

Wait...are you indirectly saying the Reaper sucks because the dirt he uses evaporates in the strong February sun angle? 

[showmethesnow]

47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ve been waiting a long time for this. 

 

I can't describe how grief stricken I am.

Just kidding @H2O. Your a good egg. 

 

[NorthArlington101]

As someone whose been shilling the ICON since the start of winter... this is a day of vindication for me.

Oh, and this Saturday storm is the worst. Waste of time and effort. Garbage. One of the worst things I’ve tracked.

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

As someone whose been shilling the ICON since the start of winter... this is a day of vindication for me.

Oh, and this Saturday storm is the worst. Waste of time and effort. Garbage. One of the worst things I’ve tracked.

And then it just went off-the-farm and showed a SECS with a cutter.  Lol!

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

13-14 was a fluke, a complete aberration.  It should have been a skunk.  When I said "stroke of good fortune" .... there ya go.  If you're counting on that again, then good luck to you.  

I moved this to banter because this is cluttering up the long range thread when there are legit things to talk about there, and this UBER long range discussion is more speculative than anything else.  

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

No, 2012-13 was the neutral that followed two Ninas. 2013-14 was the second neutral winter in a row.

 

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah that's what I meant (he had said neutrals following ninas were crappy, so that's why I mentioned that year, lol)

We have no idea what next year will be yet.  My statistical analysis was purely based on odds in any given year without factoring in any of that.  We won't get a good idea of what the enso state of next year will be until late Spring or Summer.  Once we figure that out we will have a better idea what our prospects are.  I wasn't trying to imply I think next year really will be good/bad or anything...just looking at the statistics to see if having a bad year this year changes the probabilities at all...it does not.  

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nope, not counting on that by itself...but rather...history. We don't stay below average snowfall 6 consecutive years very often at all (only happened once in over 136 years of records). Even 4 consecutive years is kinda rare. So history argues against your 2023 theory (that and the fact that no enso forecast can be confidently made this early)

My theory was completely a joke. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, H2O said:

Its bad.  And the effort to call people out and get them to post better for some reason causes more problems.  Its supposed to be a distraction, hobby.  Not how someone should value their life and worth on if it snows.

i would like to post more and get back to having fun but not when its a drag.  

Thanks for the kind words.  You might be one of the few that does miss my goofiness.  Its been nice to not deal with all the negativity so in that regard I am doing well.  Hope you are doing good too, Scott.

I was just talking with CAPE the other day about missing you around here lately...you are missed.  So is Mappy.  Is it really that much worse this year than last year?  Just seemed like more of the same crap the last few years to me.  

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My theory was completely a joke

Oh yeah I know...but EastCoastnpz seemed to almost take it seriously...lol

[nj2va]

39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

As someone whose been shilling the ICON since the start of winter... this is a day of vindication for me.

Oh, and this Saturday storm is the worst. Waste of time and effort. Garbage. One of the worst things I’ve tracked.

You definitely were on the hot to trot icon tour this winter.  Enjoy your vindication day.

[EastCoast NPZ]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yeah I know...but EastCoastnpz seemed to almost take it seriously...lol

I do take it seriously.  We are had a nino this year.  We will likely have a nina, or two, before we get another.  Check out our nina snow climo.  Neutrals following nina are not much better.  

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I do take it seriously.  We are had a nino this year.  We will likely have a nina, or two, before we get another.  Check out our nina snow climo.  Neutrals following nina are not much better.  

Trust me I know about nina climo...never trust anything in it, lol But the thing is, this was a very weak El Nino. Sometimes those can be followed up by another nino (gonna check some data on that, though)

[snownut]

13 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I do take it seriously.  We are had a nino this year.  We will likely have a nina, or two, before we get another.  Check out our nina snow climo.  Neutrals following nina are not much better.  

It has been a surprising season here in the PNW.  All the outlooks were warm & dry. LOL  

Feb has been like living in a snow globe shaker here and looks like a good sized snowstorm middle of next week 

The snow pack is actually normal to slightly above normal.   It has been too stormy for skiing many days this month. 

Sunshine & snow showers today with a 92" base at the mountain base. 

My family back in VA has been keeping me updated on the endless wet there.  My brother had bad ice storm damage at his home in Clearbrook this week. 

Take care!

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Trust me I know about nina climo...never trust anything in it, lol But the thing is, this was a very weak El Nino. Sometimes those can be followed up by another nino (gonna check some data on that, though)

That would be interesting to see if there is a correlation there. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, snownut said:

It has been a surprising season here in the PNW.  All the outlooks were warm & dry. LOL  

Feb has been like living in a snow globe shaker here and looks like a good sized snowstorm middle of next week 

The snow pack is actually normal to slightly above normal.   It has been too stormy for skiing many days this month. 

Sunshine & snow showers today with a 92" base at the mountain base. 

My family back in VA has been keeping me updated on the endless wet there.  My brother had bad ice storm damage at his home in Clearbrook this week. 

Take care!

Good to hear from you, Duane.  Yeah, ice-storm just missed to my north.  Literally, by 2 miles.  Sounds like your winter has been good.  Hope all is well!

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I do take it seriously.  We are had a nino this year.  We will likely have a nina, or two, before we get another.  Check out our nina snow climo.  Neutrals following nina are not much better.  

And that might be why this year wasn't great.  We ended up with more neutral enso conditions than nino in terms of the response.  The SST was solidly weak nino but the MJO and SOI which affect the actual weather not the SST didn't respond.  

We have had good nina years.  1996 of course... 2000 wasn't a bad year with a couple nice storms in the middle of the winter.  Better than most years!  Not saying we want a nina but it doesn't necessarily mean we are doomed.  Our odds of an above average snowfall year are about 16% in a nina...but they are only about 27% overall so its not like we go from a good chance to none...we go from crappy to extra crappy odds.  

Really...frankly, if you subtract moderate nino's which are almost all good.... our odds of a good snowfall winter are simply really low ~20% in any given year.  

So I am not optimistic like Maestro...but I don't think there are any signs we are more likely than normal to have a bad winter next year either.  The numbers say at this point we have the same odds next year as we would any other year.  Once we know some of the pattern drivers like enso and such we might be able to make some educated guesses, but look how those turned out this year!

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Starting to get that #nowhere land look again (except for the stuff over Russia). 

[snownut]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Good to hear from you, Duane.  Yeah, ice-storm just missed to my north.  Literally, by 2 miles.  Sounds like your winter has been good.  Hope all is well!

My oldest brother lives very close to you? on Wythe Avenue.  He just had new siding but on his home.  

I was in VA in early January but is was a very fast trip for business. I will reach out on my next visit and meet up for a beer. 

Hope you and your family are doing well!

 

[mappy]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I was just talking with CAPE the other day about missing you around here lately...you are missed.  So is Mappy.  Is it really that much worse this year than last year?  Just seemed like more of the same crap the last few years to me.  

Of course you don't think it's bad. why would you. 

[MillvilleWx]

4 hours ago, H2O said:

Its bad.  And the effort to call people out and get them to post better for some reason causes more problems.  Its supposed to be a distraction, hobby.  Not how someone should value their life and worth on if it snows.

i would like to post more and get back to having fun but not when its a drag.  

Thanks for the kind words.  You might be one of the few that does miss my goofiness.  Its been nice to not deal with all the negativity so in that regard I am doing well.  Hope you are doing good too, Scott.

I certainly loved starting my day opening the Banter thread and seeing you're early morning jokes lol. Puts a smile on my face and I'm sure many others.

I'm doing pretty well out here in Texas. Big things happening on the work front for me and the wife and I are doing well. Can't complain. Looking forward to this summer and fall for traveling. Have multiple trips planned all over the place (Texas, FL, back home in the MA, etc). 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

Of course you don't think it's bad. why would you. 

???

Sorry if you thought I meant the personal attacks on you weren't bad.  That was not what I meant, and I wished they had banned him long before they did.  Some of the stuff you put up with directed at you was way out of line.  I was talking about the quality of posts in general.  

I didn't say it wasn't bad...but it seemed just as bad last year and the year before.  Maybe in a slightly different way.  Last year was a non stop stream of people complaining that we were talking about the long range in the long range thread, or people throwing a tantrum every time a long range threat evaporated.  There seemed to be more straight up trolling this year perhaps.  But the percentage of legit to nonsense posts didn't seem any worse IMO.  But I don't always pay attention to that and I am not as picky about strict thread rules as some so maybe I just didn't notice.  

I think I have a different view of what debbing is though.  Sjnokoma and snowstorm23423423 were debbing when they would find any stupid reason to say its bad even when it actually looked good.  But saying it looks like poo when it does look like poo isnt debbing its just being honest.