psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:00 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: That's not all the time.. I lived in Sedona for 2 Winter's and the most they got was 2". I think they average 3", with normal January highs around 59. Expand It’s highly elevation dependent. Sedona averages 18” a year though. Flagstaff averages a little over 100” and some of the higher peaks in that area average over 250”. Arizona snow bowl ski resort near there averages 260”. A lot of that snow (like other southwest ranges such as the Sierra and San Juan’s) comes in sporadic big dumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:14 AM, SnowGoose69 said: It’s pretty similar in that the best dynamics are down by you guys at the base of the high but we are also seeing similarities up here now too in that models generated squat up here with that event beyond 72 hours and slowly produced more and more QPF as they resolved the overrunning. I ended up with over 5 inches and according to most models 3 days out would have had nothing Expand No one cares what NYC gets from this in the MA forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:13 AM, psuhoffman said: sporadic big dumps. Expand Sounds like the day after drinking a bunch of tequila and eating a huge Mexican dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:13 AM, Fozz said: Actually 15-21" in Prescott is a really big deal. They average about as much as DCA... maybe a little less. Expand For sure...I was referring to that area of 30-50” he referred too along the Mogollon Rim. That area averages about 150-200” a year. This does look like a significant storm for some lower elevation cities that don’t typically get big snow like Prescott. But he made it seem like that area of AZ doesn’t get snow when big snowstorms are fairly common in that general area. This one does seem to be affecting unusually low elevations in the area more than normal. I do think that 1967 storm I brought up gave Prescott 20”+ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Plenty of time for snow chatter over the next 2 days. So how bout that Caps 1st period!? Ovi with number 41. I think he can get 60? Fingers crossed, though all I really care about is “back to back”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:22 AM, Scraff said: Plenty of time for snow chatter over the next 2 days. So how bout that Caps 1st period!? Ovi with number 41. I think he can get 60? Fingers crossed, though all I really care about is “back to back”. Expand My buddy is at the game and sent me a video on IG of the Ovi goal...the place erupted. So many caps fans there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:22 AM, psuhoffman said: For sure...I was referring to that area of 30-50” he referred too along the Mogollon Rim. That area averages about 150-200” a year. This does look like a significant storm for some lower elevation cities that don’t typically get big snow like Prescott. But he made it seem like that area of AZ doesn’t get snow when big snowstorms are fairly common in that general area. This one does seem to be affecting unusually low elevations in the area more than normal. I do think that 1967 storm I brought up gave Prescott 20”+ though. Expand Flagstaff is a good place to live if you want every winter (or at least most of them) to be like 2009-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:22 AM, Scraff said: Plenty of time for snow chatter over the next 2 days. So how bout that Caps 1st period!? Ovi with number 41. I think he can get 60? Fingers crossed, though all I really care about is “back to back”. Expand Another Ovi goal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:39 AM, nj2va said: Another Ovi goal! Expand Maybe he’ll get to 60 tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:13 AM, psuhoffman said: It’s highly elevation dependent. Sedona averages 18” a year though. Flagstaff averages a little over 100” and some of the higher peaks in that area average over 250”. Arizona snow bowl ski resort near there averages 260”. A lot of that snow (like other southwest ranges such as the Sierra and San Juan’s) comes in sporadic big dumps. Expand no they don't. Flagstaff is about the same as us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:49 AM, Scraff said: Maybe he’ll get to 60 tonight! Expand Last time Ovechkin scored 50 or more goals was 2015-2016... and we know what happened that year... He's only scored 60+ once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 5:01 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: no they don't. Flagstaff is about the same as us. Expand They average 101.7” according to the National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/media/wrh/online_publications/TMs/TM-273.pdf and shut up Chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:52 AM, Ji said: On 2/19/2019 at 4:33 AM, psuhoffman said: I over reacted to the NAM earlier. Euro came back south at 18z. Euro/Gfs/fv3/rgem/ggem/icon all target somewhere between northern VA and the PA line. NAM is still north but often when it’s by itself is when it’s off on a tangent. Goalposts keep narrowing and we are still between them! Fv3 is my favorite so far. It seems to have the most liberal thump coverage and best target trajectory to get the most in here happy. Expand You overreact lol? Nonsense Expand Some of us can only aspire to someday attain your pinnacle of calm rational level headed emotionally stable reactions to the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Hmm.. this is their first storm of the season. The SW went into a drought around 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 5:10 AM, psuhoffman said: They average 101.7” according to the National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/media/wrh/online_publications/TMs/TM-273.pdf and shut up Chuck. Expand Yeah, that is close, at least within 80 inches or so. Course I knew it wouldn't be close, first off, DC doesn't have a ski resort like 5 miles outside it's city limits.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Off to the airport for a day trip to Boston...best part is no reading the board today as the reality sets in for others that this is and always has been a solid mix storm but not a bomb like some want. New final call for mby lol. 2.8" snow .55 qpf as sleet .45 qpf as 31 degree rain .30 qpf plain rain. 72 degrees on Friday Hugs and kisses all wish me luck...flying Southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I'm mentally preparing myself that this storm busts very low and I end up with an inch of slop, and nothing but green grass by the end of the day as it all turns to rain sooner than advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 10:17 AM, smokeybandit said: I'm mentally preparing myself that this storm busts very low and I end up with an inch of slop, and nothing but green grass by the end of the day as it all turns to rain sooner than advertised Expand Outside of areas in N MD and S PA, the 6-8 snowfall forecasts in the metros seem(ed) a tad bullish. The warming aloft is real, and without the ideal front end thump, those amounts likely wont be realized. I did a point and click around the DC area and noticed the 3-7" snowfall forecasts. Its a pretty good "cover your ass" call. So if its ends up 2-3, all good. But if its more like 6-7 or even 8, still a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 11:19 AM, WxWatcher007 said: lol y’all are ridiculous. Enjoy your like fourth good winter storm this season. Expand Bitter much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 4:48 AM, BombsAway1288 said: Not to dump on your party guys but just beware of the quicker flip to sleet/freezing rain. The mid level warmth push has been underdone (at least up here) on the models 24+ hours out in the storms like this one this year. Also, the RGEM has been terrible 24+ hours out this year also, last year too if I remember correctly. Idk what happened to that model. I used to be so spot on. Maybe it'll actually perform this storm as it does have support. Either way, good luck down there. Got 4" here today in what has been one of the worst winter seasons of recent memories here. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 11:03 AM, WVclimo said: DT's call: Expand Not bad since winter ended 10 days ago!!! Parts of New England got 6” the other day after that snow ice storm last week and now early March looks COLD. He should cancel winter more often!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 11:57 AM, Scraff said: Good morning! Not sure how much weighting goes into the HRDPS, but it seems to still be a nice beat down on the 6z. Expand Don’t forget the squall line that comes through after. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 i think there are going to be some very disappointed people come tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 12:31 PM, mappy said: i think there are going to be some very disappointed people come tomorrow Expand Not feeling this one? Nws seems overly bullish to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 12:31 PM, mappy said: i think there are going to be some very disappointed people come tomorrow Expand Anyone expecting more than 2-4, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 12:33 PM, psuhoffman said: Not feeling this one? Nws seems overly bullish to me. Expand I'm not sure 6-8" is possible before the flip. I could see totals being similar to November's storm, where I got 5.5" I think 4-6" is more reasonable for our areas. More for you than me. On 2/19/2019 at 12:34 PM, snowfan said: Anyone expecting more than 2-4, yes. Expand Well outside the favored areas, yes. Lot of people are hugging snow models and it's gonna burn their asses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I'm going 2-3" with a 1/4" crust on top before I go 32.1 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 i just love the dispersal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 11:19 AM, WxWatcher007 said: lol y’all are ridiculous. Enjoy your like fourth good winter storm this season. Expand seriously if this verifies even half as good as it can then i'm calling this a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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