George BM Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 The GBMx model looks very intriguing around Valentines Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Most predictable unpredictable LR winter ever. Early Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Mid Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Late Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Ealy Jan - everyone is buzzing about the SSWE and 2 week lag time pointing to Jan 15-20 as the epic pattern rollout. Several new 3 and 4-letter indices are being posted with graphs and multi-color charts that only Galileo can decipher but everyone is told this means fasten your seatbelts a wild winter to remember is coming starting mid Jan. Then, weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2 which is mid Jan. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Mid Jan - epic pattern has been delayed but now has a scapegoat to be blamed and it's name is MJO. weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Late Jan - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. I wonder how this story continues? Been an 'epic' novel so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Most predictable unpredictable LR winter ever. Early Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Mid Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Late Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Ealy Jan - everyone is buzzing about the SSWE and 2 week lag time pointing to Jan 15-20 as the epic pattern rollout. Several new 3 and 4-letter indices are being posted with graphs and multi-color charts that only Galileo can decipher but everyone is told this means fasten your seatbelts a wild winter to remember is coming starting mid Jan. Then, weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2 which is mid Jan. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Mid Jan - epic pattern has been delayed but now has a scapegoat to be blamed and it's name is MJO. weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Late Jan - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. I wonder how this story continues? Been an 'epic' novel so far What's your snow total so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I wonder how this story continues? Been an 'epic' novel so far Epic novel alright. WAR (Western Atlantic Ridging) and Pieces (Pieces of our shattered weenie hearts). *For those who have no idea what I am referencing* http://www.online-literature.com/tolstoy/war_and_peace/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What's your snow total so far? In my sig. Not talking imby snowfall amounts. Patterns......the pattern man. Where's the -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: No seriously where are you currently...I'm traveling up and down the coast and its interesting to see for me In my sig....BN like most of the NE and Mid Atl. Safe travels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: In my sig....BN like most of the NE and Mid Atl. Safe travels. I dont have sigs turned on sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 I actually feel bad for BOS. We can taunt and jeer about how they r spoiled usually but I'm not sure they have recorded more than a couple of inches officially so far......if even that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I dont have sigs turned on sorry 8.4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: I dont have sigs turned on sorry lmao you could fix that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Man the 6z GFS looks like torch and one rainstorm after another. This year reminds me a lot of 2001-2002. I think that was the year that the pattern everyone kept waiting for, never appeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 at least you posted it in banter i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Snowfall in my yard (through February 1) 2017- 3.1" 2018- 3.4" 2019- 21.1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 36 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Snowfall in my yard (through February 1) 2017- 3.1" 2018- 3.4" 2019- 21.1" I looked for your obs post in the obs thread but didn't see it. What do you have in today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 remember last year when these events just wouldn't happen instead of just happening all day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 46 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I looked for your obs post in the obs thread but didn't see it. What do you have in today? 2.5". How did you do up there ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 @jonjon I hope you don't mind a bit of a beer brewing consultation. My friend went with that Everyday IPA, but his teacher didn't want to order the one gallon kits, as it wasn't cost effective. Here is a screenshot of the revised spreadsheet with the list of all ingredients. Following that are the teacher's "instructions" on how to proceed with the recipe. It looks a tad 'greek' to my friend- the specifics of generating the recipe based on maris otter barley. He has the general idea, but has never actually brewed, only watched one demonstration by the instructor using the Grainfather 23L in the lab. Any insights/advice would be appreciated. Thanks. His teacher's comments- You need to ferment at least 10 L a go per batch, and buying as a kit is a very expensive way to do business. Best is to make a standard 23 L batch, then split between 2 small vessels to allow for 2 yeasts in one day of brewing. Please formulate a suitable recipe using marris otter, with a small amount of cystal malt scaled to 20L beer after losses. I’ve ordered all the hops in the kit (Columbus, cascade, citra) so have a think about your addition schedule. Work out all the weights, the volume of mash and boil water, and the estimated SG and IBUs and let me know before you start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 2.5". How did you do up there ? I was shocked to get home from work and measured 4". I'm a little surprised. Thought you would of had more than 2.5? I was under that nice green band on radar that basically sat over the m/d line all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just sitting and watching the snow fall via the lights on my deck. Enjoying the peaceful solace. If this is it for winter, as some have said. I am going to enjoy every last flake of the season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: I was shocked to get home from work and measured 4". I'm a little surprised. Thought you would of had more than 2.5? I was under that nice green band on radar that basically sat over the m/d line all afternoon. That's nice ! You were in a better spot for this one, I guess. I melted the snow that I caught in the Cocorahs gauge and it was 0.18" liquid. So about 14:1 ratios. Seems legit. Temp stayed in the teens for the entire event. Just curious: do you know your elevation there ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 40 minutes ago, WVclimo said: That's nice ! You were in a better spot for this one, I guess. I melted the snow that I caught in the Cocorahs gauge and it was 0.18" liquid. So about 14:1 ratios. Seems legit. Temp stayed in the teens for the entire event. Just curious: do you know your elevation there ? Around 770 Ratios were really good. Especially in the afternoon. Big fluffy dendrites for a couple hours . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 At 20.75 for the season. Only 1.25 behind last year's. The last 3 weeks have been great. 13.25" of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 We talk about the reasons why we love snow so much. Tracking, watching it fall, the transformation of the landscape. This is my view walking down the steps this morning. This does it for me. Looking outside at a seemingly different world. (ignore that vacuum cleaner there by the table) 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Phil predicts early spring. He should post here. Can’t hurt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: We talk about the reasons why we love snow so much. Tracking, watching it fall, the transformation of the landscape. This is my view walking down the steps this morning. This does it for me. Looking outside at a seemingly different world. (ignore that vacuum cleaner there by the table) Spectacular 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Am I the only one that pictures James Carville the 'Ragin Cajun' every time @psuhoffman begins to debate the pattern change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Say anything you want man we obviously interpret your style differently...carry on I’m trying to figure out what the problem is. Not shoot down your opinion. I want to know what it is that I did last night that bothered you and others. I saw something bad on the gefs. I posted about it with a map to illustrate the problem. I qualified it with saying I don’t buy it and this is just saying what it shows. I said I’m not making any judgments until more info. And I only said it once. So what did you want me to do differently? I honestly am not sure how I could have pointed out what I did regarding the degradation in the pressure pattern on the 0z gefs in a less negative way. It was a bad thing after all. So I’m honestly asking what the issue was? Did you think I should have not said anything? Did I not do a good enough job minimizing it because I tried too not make it a big deal. I saw something not good on the gefs and I tried to explain it in the least panic inducing but way possible without simply ignoring it. I might not agree with your point but first I need to know what your point is. Right now I’m not even sure what the issue was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 @C.A.P.E. love that photo. Nothing like that view with a coffee and fire roaring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m trying to figure out what the problem is. Not shoot down your opinion. I want to know what it is that I did last night that bothered you and others. I saw something bad on the gefs. I posted about it with a map to illustrate the problem. I qualified it with saying I don’t buy it and this is just saying what it shows. I said I’m not making any judgments until more info. And I only said it once. So what did you want me to do differently? I honestly am not sure how I could have pointed out what I did regarding the degradation in the pressure pattern on the 0z gefs in a less negative way. It was a bad thing after all. So I’m honestly asking what the issue was? Did you think I should have not said anything? Did I not do a good enough job minimizing it because I tried too not make it a big deal. I saw something not good on the gefs and I tried to explain it in the least panic inducing but way possible without simply ignoring it. I might not agree with your point but first I need to know what your point is. Right now I’m not even sure what the issue was. Its kind of amazing how society has evolved. Rewind to 2007 in the Easternwx days, and meltdowns where common and highly welcome when winter got bad. Panic and pessimism about reality was highly encouraged. Today everyone needs a safe space from it. Anything negative, no matter how much it represents reality, is somehow very very offensive!!! I really think it is just a change in our culture. A negative one IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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