MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 18z hrdps is the happy hr model to hug...if you’re gonna hug... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: 18z hrdps is the happy hr model to hug...if you’re gonna hug... but is it ever right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Heading to McHenry tonight. WWA for 3-6” with locally higher amounts. Should be good conditions for skiing Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 18z hrdps is the happy hr model to hug...if you’re gonna hug... Are there some .2 lollies mixed in?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Are there some .2 lollies mixed in?! Lol no... but .10 to .15 QPF right across DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol no... but .10 to .15 QPF right across DC metro Well at least we are trending in the right direction. Keep up the trend and by 0z we will have .2 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Hrdps has an 8 hour event for us tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Hrdps has an 8 hour event for us tomorrow!I hope we get half of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Anybody wanna chime in on ratios?? What are we talkin’ here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I’d say 12:1 - 15:1 for the corridor with possible higher along the md/pa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 16 minutes ago, T. August said: Anybody wanna chime in on ratios?? What are we talkin’ here. I personally don’t see them being a huge factor because I don’t think the rates will be there but perhaps someone more experienced than I can chime in on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Hrrr has mby at 7 degrees when the snow arrives around 7am . I'm thinking no way that happens but then I checked the 3k and Hderps and they're not a lot warmer .3k is 13 at onset and Hderps is 10 . Now that would be some cold smoke or pixie dust lol. HRR 2m temps have been about 3 to 5 degrees too cold with this air mass. I've been seeing a lot of posts on Wx Twitter about how the HRRR de-couples the atmosphere too quickly and has a cold bias with 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 NWS likes my area for another 1-3 out of this. If it happens what an outstanding two week stretch of winter this has been. Since no one posted the advisory for us western folks here it is: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 327 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 MDZ003-502-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-010430- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.190201T1100Z-190201T2000Z/ Washington-Central and Eastern Allegany-Frederick VA-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral- 327 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. The highest amounts will be near the Allegheny Highlands and Mason-Dixon Line. The steadiest snow is expected between 7 AM and noon Friday. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northwest Virginia and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 3 PM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The hazardous conditions will impact travel with snow covered and slippery roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Yep ...I've heard that as well but the other mesos are pretty freakin cold . Low teens would be fairly rare even It's possible that it could be right tonight for the wrong reasons. We have fresh snow, clear skies and light winds tonight so it could verify pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Down to 10 from a brief high of 16 . Was mostly between 14 and 15 all afternoon. Let's juice this thing up another notch at 0z 12 degrees at new windsor already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Down to 10 from a brief high of 16 . Was mostly between 14 and 15 all afternoon. Let's juice this thing up another notch at 0z This one is all yours. I can feel it. I hope to get flurries but large ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, T. August said: Anybody wanna chime in on ratios?? What are we talkin’ here. Pivotal Weather has Kuchera ratios on some models. 3k NAM has DC at 19:1 at 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Hrrr has mby at 7 degrees when the snow arrives around 7am . I'm thinking no way that happens but then I checked the 3k and Hderps and they're not a lot warmer .3k is 13 at onset and Hderps is 10 . Now that would be some cold smoke or pixie dust lol. I looked at various soundings. Def not going to be big fluffy dendrites. Crystals and dust from what I can tell. Doubt it will be high ratios. Omegas are weak and the DGZ is down all the way to 900mb at times. Could be winter's version of low clouds and drizzle. Lol. You prob have the best chance at an inch or more tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I looked at various soundings. Def not going to be big fluffy dendrites. Crystals and dust from what I can tell. Doubt it will be high ratios. Omegas are weak and the DGZ is down all the way to 900mb at times. Could be winter's version of low clouds and drizzle. Lol. You prob have the best chance at an inch or more tho. Makes sense. My bars haven’t worked out all week but here in east Balt County I guess I’ll put it a 0.5” for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 I am betting on a dusting to a coating, maybe an inch for when i get back from vacation tomorrow. Maybe flight delays. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just returned from driving around and car temp went from 10 down to 3 back up to 11 in 1 mile distance..quite the inversion Stop driving into the sky is my advice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Radiating nicely... 6.8/-1 Radar not looking too bad...it's got a little juice with it. It's yet to battle it out with the apps...so, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 My prediction is a lot of virga, maybe get a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Kleimax said: My prediction is a lot of virga, maybe get a dusting That is my thoughts as well. Not expecting more than flurries due to the dry air. But I will be happily surprised to see more. Hoping Baltimorewxguy gets his biggest snow of the week, which might just be a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 I expect snow on snow. Maybe a solid 1". Win for me. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Nam'ed at the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 mping reports of light snow just west of Columbus OH. Leading edge of precip just reaching that area in the past hour....temps/dews in that area are pretty uniform around 10/0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Down to 12 here. I am trying to remember the last time we had dust fall at these low of temps. We had a cold one in 2015. But I dont think it was this cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: mping reports of light snow just west of Columbus OH. Leading edge of precip just reaching that area in the past hour....temps/dews in that area are pretty uniform around 10/0. High ratios there, cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Nam'ed at the shore. If only lol. My yard needs an over-performer badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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