vortmax Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Impressive disc snippet regarding wind potential: Ahead of the system, rainfall really blossoms in warm advection, however the apex of this seems to largely be north of the area, but with the density discontinuity noted along the front vis-a-vis 850 mb temperature falls from +12C to -6C over a span of 12 hours on Sunday, it would be rather amazing if it failed to rain along the cold front, even with the best forcing to our north. That said, the rainfall will not be the main event with this system. In its wake, the occluding upper level low will drive a mid-level dry slot and associated tropopause fold through the area from Sunday morning onward. This is noted by a drastic drop of the dynamic tropopause well below 700 mb across Lake Erie with an associated ribbon of starkly drier air that penetrates down toward 800 mb signifying some sort of stratospheric intrusion. That said, this will work to essentially shove all atmospheric momentum below this level and likewise allow for the development of a post-frontal 75+ knot low level jet. The progression of this feature through the area is utterly crushing both in terms of the synoptic features driving it as well as the fact it will be coming through during a diurnally favorable period of mixing out to the surface. Further, substantial drying aloft due to the tropopause fold may yield a period of sun concurrent with its passage. This would only further enhance the mixing potential. That said, bufkit momentum transfer suggests in excess of 60 kts (70+ mph) is possible along the Lake Erie shore, through Buffalo, Rochester, and into Watertown. Even elsewhere, where high wind gusts are far less frequent, very strong winds will also be possible given this method. That said, a high wind watch was issued for the entire area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: For the mid week system the euro is the southern outlier at the moment.. Bringing it from wisconsin to VA lol As it squashes the crap out of it.. We will get missed to the north or south. This flipping pattern ALL winter... still waiting on the blockbuster LES event everybody promised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Either the euro is out to lunch or every other model is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 4 hours ago, WNash said: It's not for everybody, and definitely not for me, but I respect the honesty. I get more annoyed when thrillseekers pretend that they're doing storm chasing for science or whatever. In some cases, the videos can be useful for storm analysis. Morgerman spends big for travel and for equipment. Undoubtedly he gathers data that can't be obtained elsewhere and there is no way that selling his videos comes close to making that money back - he reminds me a bit of Richard Dreyfuss' character Hooper in Jaws, who owns his own damn scientific research vessel because he has $$$. But fundamentally people are doing it for the thrills, and it takes a lot of ego to say otherwise (and Morgerman, who without met training claims to "reanalyze" historic storms, always to lower them below the level of storms he has personally experienced, does not lack for ego). I’m all for the thrill chasers. I love the footage they grab. Yep. They do it for the rush- so what!?! I can’t stand the self righteous attitude of the scolders and nannies. It’s your life and you should be able to risk or not risk it as you see fit. ‘Merica!!. If the rescuers don’t want to go in, when crap gets too real, I’m cool with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Para is far enough north to bring rain.. Euro jackpots VA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 New thread time BW! Really think this wind event is going to be something big. NWS has been talking it up for almost a week now and every day the forecast gets more dire. I’ve NEVER seen point and click winds this high... 3 straight hours oh hurricane force gusts. Going to be a lot of damage depending where the strongest winds setup. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 BuffaloWeather - new thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 I haven’t gotten my 2nd office computer set up at new place yet if someone can create one for me. I set up my wife’s but haven’t had time for mine yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I haven’t gotten my 2nd office computer set up at new place yet if someone can create one for me. I set up my wife’s but haven’t had time for mine yet. But you give such nice summaries at the beginning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Really looking like a big event sunday. Could be more widespread that 2017 event and that was a big one in rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 52 minutes ago, tim123 said: Really looking like a big event sunday. Could be more widespread that 2017 event and that was a big one in rochester. I agree completely. The 2017 storm was anomalous and somewhat unexpected in my opinion. The models must have underestimated cloud cover, subsequent mixing, and the strength of the low level jet. We were under a high wind warning but it stuck to the general wording of 60mph with little indication of the catastrophe ahead. We then gusted into the 80's with almost 6 hours of 60mph gusts. I think it only affected a small corridor from Ohio through WNY, at least in regards to bad damage; so that is much different than this upcoming full latitude system. This storm would be an extremely widespread event if models held serve and storm goes sub 980mb. Local power utilities won't be moving around to help out, they will be working in their own cities. The Buffalo to Rochester corridor is somewhat battle hardened with a couple events above 70mph in the last decade or so, plus the usual pummeling from Lake Erie funneling on a yearly basis. Areas further inland that are usually spared may see higher winds than they have seen in potentially 20 years. Those places could get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 The GFS has trended every so slightly North with the surface low for 12 consecutive runs. Not the trend I want for the strongest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Could be a decent event if it comes to fruition so we'll see. GFS is rain now after being snow for a few runs so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 GFS is much further North than 00Z NAM FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: GFS is much further North than 00Z NAM FWIW Yeah this 0z run was a huge step in the wrong direction for all of next week. For ****s sake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 The Winter of let downs as nothing can go our way just once, lol, not even for a wind event can we get lucky, lol?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Teleconnections for our area are just horrible, that simple! The only thing we got going for ourselves is a solidly negative EPO which IMO is being trumped by the persistent -PNA and a super +AO which doesn't change for the foreseeable future. OH and the NAO is solidly +, what else is new, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 FV3 is now also snow for tues-wed so.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Para not to different from the icon.. One would think the euro comes north tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 GGEM a little further South but in the cone but the Euro will say NO way, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Gettin so bad that we're rooting hard for a 3-6" event. lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Ukmet is on the board with the Canadian.. Precipitation struggles to make it this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Could be some nice wrap around for the tug/dacks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Already a high wind warning posted 48 hours out...A major storm system will impact the region this period...with highwinds, potential for lake shore flooding east of both lakes, andaccumulating lake effect snow to close out the period.Headline changes...we will upgrade the high wind watch to a warningfor the entire region as confidence remains high for very strongwind gusts. Model consistency, comparison to previous high windevents and a climatological favored track for high winds supportsthe decision to upgrade. A lake shore flood watch has been expandedto Jefferson and Oswego Counties where high waves crashing into theshoreline may cause beach erosion, and if the ice sheet on thenortheast end of the lake becomes dislodged in the high winds...highwaves may push into the Bays of Jefferson County. Also a northwestwind Sunday night and Monday may shift the ice sheet southward alongthe Oswego coastline, possibly creating an ice jam for creeks andstreams that empty into the Lake.The 00Z models continue to track a deepening, and anomalously deeplow across Lake Michigan and near the SOO Saturday night and Sunday,with a 65 to 75 knot LLJ passing across the region Sunday and Sundaynight. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF as well as the Canadian model alldeepen this low to around 971 to 972 mb Sunday evening.This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 hPatemperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees Celsius through the day),forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail(down to near 500 hPa) across the region will transport very strongwinds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in thelate morning hours and continuing through Sunday night. As the 1.5PV tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon behind a strong coldfront, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow dipping below 1Kfeet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75 mph downwind ofLake Erie and across the Lake Plain. Several past high wind eventshave shown up in the CIPS analogs, including high wind events of Feb10th 2001, Feb 1 2002, Jan 9 2008. The Jan 9th event at the surfacelooks similar to this, with a surface low tracking across the SOOthat deepens to around 971 mb. One difference is the surface highbuilding across the Plains is stronger for our event Sunday...whichwill bring a tighter pressure gradient supporting confidence thatwind gusts 65 to 75 mph will be possible.As the cold front crosses the region Sunday wind gusts will quicklystrengthen from west to east, with damaging west-southwest gustshowling across the region. The strongest winds are expected Sundayafternoon through Sunday night. What will also make this wind eventconcerning will be the prolonged period of damaging winds...withgusts over 60 mph possible for a 12 to 18 hour period. This lengthyperiod of winds battering the region could increase the severity ofthe wind event. Strong winds will persist into Sunday night, thismore of a west to west-northwest direction as the surface low tracksacross southern Quebec.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 00Z EURO says what event for Tues-Wed, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 A whopping 4" is what we have to look forward to during the next 10 days, which is usually the best month for strong EC events, lol! Please let it end already, God! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Lol...the long range is riddled with cutters...even on the New GFS. Absolutely no end to the pattern we have been stuck in. The flow is so extremely progressive we can't get anything to stall out and start forming a new pattern. My call is whatever we get off the lakes Monday and Tuesday will not be impressive due to the strong winds shearing things out. Plus, best moisture will probably be blown to Herkimer county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 New Thread https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52068-upstateeastern-new-york/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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