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24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Have fun with the wind. Personally, I can’t stand it. Too violent. But you guys go ahead and enjoy your “mayhem”. 

Ill be inside with the generator wishing I was on the NW side of this ****

Not you too!  I have no other wind enthusiasts on this whole forum...booooo.  

Check out this sweet hoodie I got from what will likely be the strongest wind storm to ever hit Rochester.  I doubt it will be surpassed in my lifetime, but who knows.  It sucks that they kind of screwed up the stats on the hoodie as there were actually many hundreds of utility crews brought in to handle that storm, (not just 150) and I think more than 130,000 people eventually lost power.  Many of the utility crews were here for over a month.  

IMG_3071.thumb.JPG.4f604edc85de3ba135e571001a3f027d.JPG



Here is a decent post mortem write-up from that event.  Interestingly, peak wind gusts were realized during the early afternoon when the sun was out and mixing maximized the downward transport.  We have that aspect on our side for the Sunday storm as the current models stand, but many days to go and things appear to be trending faster with the last few runs.

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/2017/08/18/windstorm-damage/537351001/

 

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All models, including Meso's are all at least 5-10 degrees too warm at both low lvls and upper lvls, not that it means much as most of the moisture is moving off to our SE anyway, lol. The system that's causing all this nonsense is developing over MO and IO, lol and its headed for The UP, simply disgusting!

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Not you too!  I have no other wind enthusiasts on this whole forum...booooo.  

Check out this sweet hoodie I got from what will likely be the strongest wind storm to ever hit Rochester.  I doubt it will be surpassed in my lifetime, but who knows.  It sucks that they kind of screwed up the stats on the hoodie as there were actually many hundreds of utility crews brought in to handle that storm, (not just 150) and I think more than 130,000 people eventually lost power.  Many of the utility crews were here for over a month.  

IMG_3071.thumb.JPG.4f604edc85de3ba135e571001a3f027d.JPG



Here is a decent post mortem write-up from that event.  Interestingly, peak wind gusts were realized during the early afternoon when the sun was out and mixing maximized the downward transport.  We have that aspect on our side for the Sunday storm as the current models stand, but many days to go and things appear to be trending faster with the last few runs.

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/2017/08/18/windstorm-damage/537351001/

 

You always have me Delta. I’ll take a good windstorm anyday. That’s what we have homeowners insurance, car insurance, generators , ect .. for right ? :rolleyes:

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Here's a few time periods off the 12Z Euro, 10M gusts which I gotta say, don't look all that impressive considering the strong wording from NWS but they did say it was very early.  Didn't post any sustained 10M winds cause there in the low to mid 20Kts so really no need but gusts looked different.

I personally think the KBUF area will see the brunt of this one cause of the open water of the Lake Erie tahts allows that wind to travel up the length of the lake with  othing to buffer it at all so....

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Then the Eastern end gets into it more with gusts approaching 60 in KFZY

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I think the US models have a much better pronounced SLP and quite a bit stronger thats why there's so much difference between models.  Haven't even looked much at the GFS so I will now. 

Got a New HP Chromebook and am putting to the test while having 3 radar tabs open, followed by 2 Satellites tabs and a meso-analysis page open and a few others, with no lag what so ever, and for the price of this thing, I'm super impressed for sure!

 

 

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5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Just remember the last two years we’ve had significant snowstorms in the middle of March so this winter’s far from over. 

For me CNYwx, this Winter is kaput for sure, but can there be a surprise biggie or 2 in March, sure but with the way this yr has been going, I wouldn't bet on it that's a guarantee, lol. If a couple do happen at least we won't have to deal with it sticking around for 2 long after it falls anyway so thats a good thing.

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33 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

For me CNYwx, this Winter is kaput for sure, but can there be a surprise biggie or 2 in March, sure but with the way this yr has been going, I wouldn't bet on it that's a guarantee, lol. If a couple do happen at least we won't have to deal with it sticking around for 2 long after it falls anyway so thats a good thing.

If we can get the SE ridge squished for a few weeks, it would help significantly with the storm track.

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That area of deeper moisture at H700 over OH is starting to blossom even further and its this batch of precip that I think makes it here later on this evening cause the WWA doesn't start till 7PM this evening so we'll see.

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but with this batch of precip, the warm air follows right on its heels or even as it begins it may begin as a mix instead of snow.

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36 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Hurricane Force gusts on the point and click. If this verifies there is going to be a lot of damage. This is looking to be a long duration high impact event. I’ll be getting the power outage supplies rounded tomorrow.

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10 straight hours of 60mph gusts forecast right now.


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And 24 straight hours of 40mph gusts. Pretty close to the dream storm for the wind chasers.  

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Should there be a new wind warning for situations like this. Like extreme wind warning. For 70 plus winds. I think so.

There is an extreme wind warning product. 115mph threshold though...

Extreme Wind Warning

An Extreme Wind Warning is issued for surface winds of 100 knots (115 MPH) or greater associated with non-convective, downslope, derecho (NOT associated with a tornado), or sustained hurricane winds are expected to occur within one hour.


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2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:


There is an extreme wind warning product. 115mph threshold though...

Extreme Wind Warning

An Extreme Wind Warning is issued for surface winds of 100 knots (115 MPH) or greater associated with non-convective, downslope, derecho (NOT associated with a tornado), or sustained hurricane winds are expected to occur within one hour.


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Derecho doesn’t exist

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9 hours ago, vortmax said:

How would this one compare to March 2017? Seems similar timeframe (afternoon mixing with full sun), but slightly weaker event?

 

I really need to pull up some maps from that event but I remember it being highly unusual.  The winds did not form directly behind a cold front, in fact I think they came a day or two after a front passed.  A large and extremely deep storm was cut off and just sitting and filling over Northern Manitoba or Ontario.  This storm was deep enough to still have strong low and mid level winds far from the low center.  On the 8th, a low level jet streak moved across the great lakes during a day with clear blue skies and strong march sun.  Around noon, the inversion broke and these strong low level winds began to mix down to the surface in earnest.  As the afternoon progressed, the winds continued to ramp up with strong mixing ongoing.  As soon as the sun set, things ramped right down and the show was over.  It was basically a 6 hour window of diurnal mixing with a powerful low level jet passing through.  

I just recapped all of that from memory, so I might be a little off. but it certainly wasnt a standard post frontal cold air advection setup like most of our events are.  I remember they popped high wind watches the day before it happened and I kept trying to figure out how and why they thought there would be strong winds.  I even recall telling some friends that the NWS was out to lunch thinking that winds would gust to 60mph.  Oh how wrong was I.  

This next setup is far more traditional with a great isallobaric component, downward momentum transfer, steep lapse rates, and cold air advection.  If we can tap into some clear skies and sun to really mix things up we may be in business for another whopper, here's hoping it all comes together.  

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9 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

These winds could really open the lake back up!!!

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I foresee some major problems for the Niagara river with this storm.  The ice boom is going to get mangled and likely fail leading to some serious pack ice getting pushed down the river.  If enough ice breaks up we might have a strange ice seiche that will only exacerbate the situation.  

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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Strong winds are possible across the region Sunday and Sunday night with potential for gusts to reach 70 mph across the Lake Plain. This has us looking at the top recorded wind gusts on record for our climate stations of #Buffalo and #Rochester. #nywx

No photo description available.
No photo description available.

I remember that '97 storm as I had an s10 pickup tied with boat rope to my parents pine tree that was trying to fall. Ended up saving the tree, but man, that truck was getting lifted up during the higher gusts. 

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