rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Storm to watch day 7/8.. Is this Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Yeah, turns out to be a pretty big east coast snowstorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Storm to watch day 7/8.. Don’t worry it will be over Detroit on the next run, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I don't think we see much rain from tomorrows event so we'll see as the system basically splits and we get left high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 It doesn't even snow here anymore with a NW flow, lol, just horrible, for real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: It doesn't even snow here anymore with a NW flow, lol, just horrible, for real! This lake effect is barely making it on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 bro look again, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 This model is absolutely nuts, seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 day ICON 5 day FV3 Yeah, ill go with the ICON and ill stay away from all US guidance for now on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Yeah, nice little surprise at the moment.. Like some 50-1 fallen from the sky LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 It will be short lived anyway..Gfs has winds backing west and then WSW over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 TT shows sleet as snow.. The Icon only shows snow vs "rain".. The real FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 43 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 5 day ICON 5 day FV3 Yeah, ill go with the ICON and ill stay away from all US guidance for now on! That a boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 That 200 hr euro bomb sure is interesting. I’d never count the euro out! It’s a completely different storm than we’ve seen this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 They are no different, stop using tropical tidbits during marginal situations lol We have a WWA for a mixed bag, which is why the para looks like it does lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 What's more funny is that article I posted the other day was all based of TT snow maps, giving it an even worst name lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 That a boyWell in this instance yeah I have to go with the icon because that's what I believe is going to happen. The snowfall maps from the fv3 are just absolutely atrocious and have been since the beginning of the year except that one storm it did Peg quite nicely and it did hit from days away and everybody knows which event of speaking of.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I mean look at every other model or guidance out there, they all have the same thing, 1-2" a little ice then dry alot, meanwhile the fv3 paints 5 6 in which is just stupidSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Here is the snowstorm on the para.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 ...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY... One of the strongest cyclones in recent memory will pass through eastern Canada Sunday and Sunday night. Medium range guidance packages are in unusually good agreement on the strength and track of the system...including a minimum central pressure that is forecast to be in the vcnty of 970-975mb. The intense system will have several classic synoptic high wind signatures for our region...including a nearly ideal southwest to northeast track and steady intensification as it passes. Closer inspection of the wind profiles from this beast indicate forecast winds of 70 kts as low as 2500 ft and 60 kt winds as low as just 1000 ft. Given moderately strong subsidence in the wake of the system...a large portion of these winds would easily mix to the surface. A more subjective parameter to watch will be the downward penetration of the trop fold...which in looking at the 1.5PVU field...is being advertised to lower to around 650mb. Taking all of these factors into consideration...current guidance suggests fairly widespread wind gusts over 60 mph Sunday and early Sunday night...with the potential for winds over 70 mph. This would make this event the strongest in several years...but given the range of this forecast (Day 5) and model oscillation...will hold off on headlines while beefing up the dangerous threat in the HWO product. As far as some more detailed timing...a powerful cold front associated with the intensifying storm system will plow across our forecast area Sunday morning. This is 3 to 6 hours faster than recent numerical guidance and nearly 12 hours faster than guidance from a couple days ago. Southerly winds will start to increase ahead of the front early Sunday morning...then winds will shift to the southwest and immediately gust to 50 to 60 mph. While winds may slacken a bit in the first hour or two behind the front...winds will then pick up during the midday and afternoon. This is when winds could gust to between 60 and 70 mph...particularly in the corridor that extends from Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier to Rochester and the Thousand Islands region. Lapse rates of 9 deg c/km are forecast from the sfc to the heart of the strong low level jet... giving further reason to believe that the winds will have little trouble mixing. Should these winds verify...we could anticipated widespread power outages from downed trees. There would also be a heightened risk for damage to some structures. Please keep in mind though that at this point...it is ONLY a forecast...albeit one with increasing confidence. It will be important to stay tuned to updated forecasts and possible statements/headlines as we progress through the rest of the week. As a side note...the front will be accompanied by some showers on Sunday...mainly ahead of it...and then several hours after it moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Yay, a wind event, lol, BW and Delta should be intrigued! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yay, a wind event, lol, BW and Delta should be intrigued! I'm intrigued and concerned. Living downwind of lake Erie in the Niagara Frontier these types of events can really spark widespread power outages and plenty of downs trees. I think it was just a few years back that Orleans or Genesee Co's had an 82 mph wind gust...with the freeze/thaw cycle on steroids this year we could be looking at some real issues by Sunday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I agree as I despise wind events as my power almost always goes out with high winds so I pray it gets a lot weaker in the coming days! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 31 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yay, a wind event, lol, BW and Delta should be intrigued! I am very intrigued! A solid high impact wind event could salvage an otherwise dreadful few weeks here. It’s certainly a nice setup and always good to see max winds forecasts during the afternoon when mixing will be maximized. Even during the historic wind event on March 15, 2017 when Kroc gusted to 81mph, i still didn’t lose power so maybe this time I can get into the real action and mayhem. If models continue this way I’ll be charging batteries and running generators on Saturday. Would love to see this one verify. I may decide to park my truck somewhere else this time though, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 This winter has been great for wind and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2019 Author Share Posted February 20, 2019 I own a house now, last wind event bent my door. I’ll pass on those. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 We'll be lucky to see any precip from this event today as its scooting off to our SE pretty quickly. I think we see the dry alot a lot quicker than first anticipated right after KBGM highered snow totals to a few inches, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Also starting to think that system that creates the pretty big wind event for Sunday into Monday may actually shake up the atmosphere enough to perhaps change this horrific pattern we've been in. Its geting late for any real come back and the Sun angle stuff doesn't concern me cause if there's enough cold air around, and deep enough, combined with ample moisture it'll snow but just don't expect it to have any staying power, kind of like this Winter, RLMAO!!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: We'll be lucky to see any precip from this event today as its scooting off to our SE pretty quickly. I think we see the dry alot a lot quicker than first anticipated right after KBGM highered snow totals to a few inches, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Looks like a total split of precip. Interesting that PA getting in on the action for a change, yet nothing up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Looks like KBUF is almost a lock for a win for the first time in years. I guess SYR has a chance if they can get in on a east coast system that leaves BUF high and dry but I think a win is in store for KBUF. The 2018 - 2019 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Buffalo 101.1 73.6 83.2 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Syracuse 84.9 94.2 106.8 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Rochester 71.6 72.0 85.7 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Binghamton 67.5 58.3 43.3 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Albany 40.6 43.2 35.0 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now