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Upstate/Eastern New York


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That a boy
Well in this instance yeah I have to go with the icon because that's what I believe is going to happen. The snowfall maps from the fv3 are just absolutely atrocious and have been since the beginning of the year except that one storm it did Peg quite nicely and it did hit from days away and everybody knows which event of speaking of.

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...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY...

One of the strongest cyclones in recent memory will pass through
eastern Canada Sunday and Sunday night. Medium range guidance
packages are in unusually good agreement on the strength and track
of the system...including a minimum central pressure that is
forecast to be in the vcnty of 970-975mb. The intense system will
have several classic synoptic high wind signatures for our
region...including a nearly ideal southwest to northeast track and
steady intensification as it passes. Closer inspection of the wind
profiles from this beast indicate forecast winds of 70 kts as low as
2500 ft and 60 kt winds as low as just 1000 ft. Given moderately
strong subsidence in the wake of the system...a large portion of
these winds would easily mix to the surface. A more subjective
parameter to watch will be the downward penetration of the trop
fold...which in looking at the 1.5PVU field...is being advertised to
lower to around 650mb. Taking all of these factors into
consideration...current guidance suggests fairly widespread wind
gusts over 60 mph Sunday and early Sunday night...with the potential
for winds over 70 mph. This would make this event the strongest in
several years...but given the range of this forecast (Day 5) and
model oscillation...will hold off on headlines while beefing up the
dangerous threat in the HWO product.

As far as some more detailed timing...a powerful cold front
associated with the intensifying storm system will plow across our
forecast area Sunday morning. This is 3 to 6 hours faster than
recent numerical guidance and nearly 12 hours faster than guidance
from a couple days ago. Southerly winds will start to increase ahead
of the front early Sunday morning...then winds will shift to the
southwest and immediately gust to 50 to 60 mph. While winds may
slacken a bit in the first hour or two behind the front...winds will
then pick up during the midday and afternoon. This is when winds
could gust to between 60 and 70 mph...particularly in the corridor
that extends from Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier to Rochester
and the Thousand Islands region. Lapse rates of 9 deg c/km are
forecast from the sfc to the heart of the strong low level jet...
giving further reason to believe that the winds will have little
trouble mixing. Should these winds verify...we could anticipated
widespread power outages from downed trees. There would also be a
heightened risk for damage to some structures. Please keep in mind
though that at this point...it is ONLY a forecast...albeit one with
increasing confidence. It will be important to stay tuned to updated
forecasts and possible statements/headlines as we progress through
the rest of the week. As a side note...the front will be accompanied
by some showers on Sunday...mainly ahead of it...and then several
hours after it moves through.
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3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Yay, a wind event, lol, BW and Delta should be intrigued!

I'm intrigued and concerned. Living downwind of lake Erie in the Niagara Frontier these types of events can really spark widespread power outages and plenty of downs trees. I think it was just a few years back that Orleans or Genesee Co's had an 82 mph wind gust...with the freeze/thaw cycle on steroids this year we could be looking at some real issues by Sunday evening.

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31 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Yay, a wind event, lol, BW and Delta should be intrigued!

I am very intrigued!  A solid high impact wind event could salvage an otherwise dreadful few weeks here. It’s certainly a nice setup and always good to see max winds forecasts during the afternoon when mixing will be maximized. Even during the historic wind event on March 15, 2017 when Kroc gusted to 81mph, i still didn’t lose power so maybe this time I can get into the real action and mayhem. If models continue this way I’ll be charging batteries and running generators on Saturday. Would love to see this one verify.  I may decide to park my truck somewhere else this time though, haha. 

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Also starting to think that system that creates the pretty big wind event for Sunday into Monday may actually shake up the atmosphere enough to perhaps change this horrific pattern we've been in. Its geting late for any real come back and the Sun angle stuff doesn't concern me cause if there's enough cold air around, and deep enough, combined with ample moisture it'll snow but just don't expect it to have any staying power, kind of like this Winter, RLMAO!!

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1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

We'll be lucky to see any precip from this event today as its scooting off to our SE pretty quickly. I think we see the dry alot a lot quicker than first anticipated right after KBGM highered snow totals to a few inches, lol!

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Looks like a total split of precip. Interesting that PA getting in on the action for a change, yet nothing up here.

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Looks like KBUF is almost a lock for a win for the first time in years. I guess SYR has a chance if they can get in on a east coast system that leaves BUF high and dry but I think a win is in store for KBUF.

 

 
The 2018 - 2019 
Snow Season 
Normal Average 
to Date 
This Time  
Last Season 
Normal 
Seasons Average 
All Time Season  
Snowfall Record 
           
Buffalo 101.1 73.6 83.2 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977)
Syracuse 84.9 94.2 106.8 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) 
Rochester 71.6 72.0 85.7 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)
Binghamton 67.5 58.3 43.3 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017)
Albany 40.6 43.2 35.0 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)
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