CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: No wonder why it is so busy this weekend up here...snow will be ruined AGAIN by the end of the week with another cutter...and then another....What an irritating winter. What model are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The first "cutter" on the euro is pretty much a non event, were talking 0.10-0.15" LE in the form of light snow/mix with surface remaining in the low 30s.. The Next "cutter" goes SE of us into South central PA before transfering off the coast..Verbatim stiill a rain-snow scenerio.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Gfs is also weak with the midweek system with just some light snow..Not going to ruin any snowpacks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The Canadian. Keeping with the pattern. It is either some front end snow and then we flip to slop, or it will cut far NW and bring on warm temps and rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I will say i'm getting sick of this look lol We have missed alot of snow this year because of timing, guess u can say that about every year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 U can't trust any model in the LR, especially the canadian and 0z gfs lol Canadian still owes me my all snow event and 2 feet that it showed 30 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The problem is the three most skilled guidance are non accessible to the public..(EPS,ECM,UK) So we are stuck with the Gfs Para and Canadian lol I think icon will have to be my new go to Free model..haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I’m all in on this little storm. It rarely fails. This type of track will bring bonus snow to the thruway corridor. As long as we can get a N wind component we are solid for 4”+. It’s gonna catch people off guard. Thank god for NO MIXING, NO WIND, NO CUTTING, NO DOWNSLOPE. After that it’s more of the same. That familiar cutter pattern with too anemic redevelopment to hold the cold= RAIN, sleet and crap. Weird question: why are elevation events more common in March and April? Or is that just my imagination? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Lake effect snow isn't for everyone but Meteorologist Lindsay Raychelsays, take it from the kind hearts on the Tug Hill-- when you see the snow fall, slow down, take a breather from what can be a hectic schedule and just try to enjoy it because snow will fall in Upstate NY whether you want it to or not❄ About this website LOCALSYR.COM Life on the Tug Hill: Where heavy lake effect snow brings everyone together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m all in on this little storm. It rarely fails. This type of track will bring bonus snow to the thruway corridor. As long as we can get a N wind component we are solid for 4”+. It’s gonna catch people off guard. Thank god for NO MIXING, NO WIND, NO CUTTING, NO DOWNSLOPE. After that it’s more of the same. That familiar cutter pattern with too anemic redevelopment to hold the cold= RAIN, sleet and crap. Weird question: why are elevation events more common in March and April? Or is that just my imagination? I would have to say that as we get into March and April the increasing sun angle warms the boundary layer even more at lower elevations. Higher elevations obviously benefit from lapse rate cooling and the few degree difference over a thousand foot difference in elevation can be enough to make the difference between snow and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The Euro has a 973 low over the UP of Michigan next Sunday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Like I said. Cutter cutter CUTTER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Sounds familiar: Deeper moisture and lift will continue to reside along the Thruway corridor through the night. This will be amplified by increasing northeasterly flow off of Lake Ontario. A surface low track across Cattaraugus/Allegany County will allow for a period of confluent northeasterly flow and an unstable lake-induced boundary layer to bring additional moisture and instability into the Niagara Escarpment. This will add bonus snow there on top of the synoptic snow. Luckily enough for us, the duration of northeasterly flow does not seem to be all that prolonged given the progressive nature of the system, however it does bring basically the entirety of the Thruway right up to advisory criteria (~4") for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: The Euro has a 973 low over the UP of Michigan next Sunday morning! Maybe it can shake up this horrible pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I just had to share a side note...I just shared on FB about my work situation, and the outpouring of offers to help and kindness from the friends we have made here in this short time...wow....this is such a special place. Offers to buy gas, food, and tools for us...and for us to stay in their homes... Just wow. I don't want to leave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Starting to like next event. I could see this as a half a footer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I wouldn’t be shocked if a couple areas cashed in on marginal warning level amts. Figure Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Ontario counties. Although an advisory should suffice. Thinking skiing at Bristol on Monday might be great! Just a perfect track to squeeze out everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I wouldn’t be shocked if a couple areas cashed in on marginal warning level amts. Figure Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Ontario counties. Although an advisory should suffice. Thinking skiing at Bristol on Monday might be great! Just a perfect track to squeeze out everything. I think anything from the 90 north is 4" to 7" from this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Looks good for you guys on the south shore!! The same wind direction u guys love I hate haha Starting to despise synoptic events that aren't clippers/fronts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I love these PA lows. Just a perfect little set up for the thruway crew. Nothing outrageous but just great fluff! I’d really like to see the RGEM on board. Unfortunately, Oswego and the Tug mostly sit this one out. Hey, u guys have had your fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 It's not the track, it's the downsloping thats a B*tch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Lol...this winter has found every way to screw us over, wolfie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 51 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I love these PA lows. Just a perfect little set up for the thruway crew. Nothing outrageous but just great fluff! I’d really like to see the RGEM on board. Unfortunately, Oswego and the Tug mostly sit this one out. Hey, u guys have had your fun! We have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: We have? Bare ground in much of ROC. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Bare ground in much of ROC. Just saying. Snow retention is good here. Haven't seen a two to three foot event yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 37 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Bare ground in much of ROC. Just saying. I definitely hope you get a good event tomorrow night though. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 0z runs, post NAM, were not good. Lol. Maybe I over sold this one? Haha. Looking more like 2-4 instead of 4-8. Oh well. Here’s hoping we trend back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Beautiful morning. Looks like we had some rime ice form overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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