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Upstate/Eastern New York


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The first "cutter" on the euro is pretty much a non event, were talking 0.10-0.15" LE in the form of light snow/mix with surface remaining in the low 30s..

The Next "cutter" goes SE of us into South central PA before transfering off the coast..Verbatim stiill a rain-snow scenerio..

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I’m all in on this little storm. It rarely fails. This type of track will bring bonus snow to the thruway corridor. As long as we can get a N wind component we are solid for 4”+. It’s gonna catch people off guard. Thank god for NO MIXING, NO WIND, NO CUTTING, NO DOWNSLOPE. 

After that it’s more of the same. That familiar cutter pattern with too anemic redevelopment to hold the cold= RAIN, sleet and crap. 

Weird question: why are elevation events more common in March and April? Or is that just my imagination? 

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Lake effect snow isn't for everyone but Meteorologist Lindsay Raychelsays, take it from the kind hearts on the Tug Hill-- when you see the snow fall, slow down, take a breather from what can be a hectic schedule and just try to enjoy it because snow will fall in Upstate NY whether you want it to or not

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6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m all in on this little storm. It rarely fails. This type of track will bring bonus snow to the thruway corridor. As long as we can get a N wind component we are solid for 4”+. It’s gonna catch people off guard. Thank god for NO MIXING, NO WIND, NO CUTTING, NO DOWNSLOPE. 

After that it’s more of the same. That familiar cutter pattern with too anemic redevelopment to hold the cold= RAIN, sleet and crap. 

Weird question: why are elevation events more common in March and April? Or is that just my imagination? 

I would have to say that as we get into March and April the increasing sun angle warms the boundary layer even more at lower elevations. Higher elevations obviously benefit from lapse rate cooling and the few degree difference over a thousand foot difference in elevation can be enough to make the difference between snow and rain. 

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Sounds familiar:

Deeper moisture and lift will continue to reside along the Thruway
corridor through the night. This will be amplified by increasing
northeasterly flow off of Lake Ontario. A surface low track across
Cattaraugus/Allegany County will allow for a period of confluent
northeasterly flow and an unstable lake-induced boundary layer to
bring additional moisture and instability into the Niagara
Escarpment. This will add bonus snow there on top of the synoptic
snow. Luckily enough for us, the duration of northeasterly flow does
not seem to be all that prolonged given the progressive nature of
the system, however it does bring basically the entirety of the
Thruway right up to advisory criteria (~4") for snow.

 

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I just had to share a side note...I just shared on FB about my work situation, and the outpouring of offers to help and kindness from the friends we have made here in this short time...wow....this is such a special place. Offers to buy gas, food, and tools for us...and for us to stay in their homes... Just wow. I don't want to leave!

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6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I wouldn’t be shocked if a couple areas cashed in on marginal warning level amts. Figure Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Ontario counties. Although an advisory should suffice. Thinking skiing at Bristol on Monday might be great! 

Just a perfect track to squeeze out everything. 

I think anything from the 90 north is 4" to 7" from this event

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