Upstate/Eastern New York

[rochesterdave]

It’s incredible how the microclimate works up there. I truly want to purchase a place that is: 1. On a lake big enough for speed boats 2. Near a small downhill ski place 3. In the BIG snow. 

I cant afford the grand old lakes like Saranac or Placid. Lake George is too expensive and gets less snow. 

I’m really considering Brantingham but it is a bit marginal from what I see. I don’t want to get into Matt’s situation where I’m constantly coveting snow just 15 miles away, you know?

the plan is to dump everything I’ve got into it, get a huge mortgage and then try and tread water by renting it out in summer and winter when I can to make the pymts. My buddy does this same thing with his place on BHam. His place is on water AND by the sled trails. 

Perhaps I’d ultimately be grateful to NOT be in one of those mega zones, as the snow removal and renter issues might be tough. Not many people are prepared to deal with over 12” at a time. 

Brantingham seems to get about half of what Carol gets. 200 vs her 350 or whatever. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 minute ago, WNash said:

Sunshine up here - wondering if this is a good indication that the lake is pretty well frozen up.

Its been snowing lightly the past hour or so here in west falls. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

18 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Its been snowing lightly the past hour or so here in west falls. 

Yeah a couple light returns out that way but barely anything at all, I think this event is over before it really begins not that it was expected to be much in the first place lol. 

[wolfie09]

These type of seasons happen more often then people realize lol 

Thats why it's nearly impossible for carol to keep up an avg above 300 per year..

This is just over the last 10 years, u can pretty much add this year in the stinker cat lol

[wolfie09]

That's 6 years out of a possible 14 with less then 200" for the "heart" of the  tug..

 

[wolfie09]

Snowing pretty good at the moment..

Expected totals bumped up slightly..

[winter_rules]

5 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s incredible how the microclimate works up there. I truly want to purchase a place that is: 1. On a lake big enough for speed boats 2. Near a small downhill ski place 3. In the BIG snow. 

I cant afford the grand old lakes like Saranac or Placid. Lake George is too expensive and gets less snow. 

I’m really considering Brantingham but it is a bit marginal from what I see. I don’t want to get into Matt’s situation where I’m constantly coveting snow just 15 miles away, you know?

the plan is to dump everything I’ve got into it, get a huge mortgage and then try and tread water by renting it out in summer and winter when I can to make the pymts. My buddy does this same thing with his place on BHam. His place is on water AND by the sled trails. 

Perhaps I’d ultimately be grateful to NOT be in one of those mega zones, as the snow removal and renter issues might be tough. Not many people are prepared to deal with over 12” at a time. 

Brantingham seems to get about half of what Carol gets. 200 vs her 350 or whatever. 

Brantingham doesn’t get the big totals that everyone seems to covet, but usually builds a pretty solid snowpack throughout the winter.  They don’t lose the snow as quickly/often as many areas outside of the Tug and Adirondacks.  Farther East it will just keep getting better. 

Also, you don’t really have to worry about being “on the trail” in Brantingham to rent to sledders because sleds run all those roads to get to the trail.  There is usually a nice layer of packed snow/ice on all those roads.  

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Meh... lake wanted to try and gave it a go and said naw not tonight guys... lol...




.

[rochesterdave]

Oh! This pattern is sooo different. Lol. Can we say, “cutter”? 

[TugHillMatt]

It is like there is just limited moisture coming off Lake Ontario this winter. Every event has been weak sauce compared to what it is predicted to be. Even tonight I am doubtful we get the 3 to 5 inches.

I don't know how to explain it. It is like something holding the lake snow back from coming down heavy this winter. Maybe it is all the strong winds and shear? I look outside and it is just light piddly crap.

My location averages 300 inches a winter...supposedly.

[Syrmax]

Out here in Scottsdale AZ...golf trip and although its mild, they've been ratcheting down the temps over the past week. Today was likely the warmest...mid 60s.  Now expecting highs near 60 tomorrow and mid 50s Sun/Mon. I'll still take it.   Saw some girls walking around this evening dressed like its Oswego...its all perspective...

[BuffaloWeather]

30 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It is like there is just limited moisture coming off Lake Ontario this winter. Every event has been weak sauce compared to what it is predicted to be. Even tonight I am doubtful we get the 3 to 5 inches.

I don't know how to explain it. It is like something holding the lake snow back from coming down heavy this winter. Maybe it is all the strong winds and shear? I look outside and it is just light piddly crap.

My location averages 300 inches a winter...supposedly.

The last two years.

 

[wolfie09]

Look at the difference between north and south redfield..

I live directly west of south redfield and they get much less then carol, obviously..

If u look at the last 15 years on the "winter summary page" there has been 6 instances of 300"+ , all in the vicinity of N.Redfield..

[TugHillMatt]

30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Look at the difference between north and south redfield..

I live directly west of south redfield and they get much less then carol, obviously..

Some years South Redfield gets more. Not usually 100+ more...but from seasonal maps it can be 50 to 75 inches more.

[wolfie09]

Oh No doubt, guess the point was no where avg's 300"+ not even carol and shes the exception not the rule..

Quote

Yerdon said the average seasonal snowfall is 288 inches.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

I'd say Carols average snowfall is right around 300". The 2011-2012 skews the totals, but she's had some years around 400". 

[TugHillMatt]

On 2/14/2019 at 11:08 PM, weatherbo said:

I feel so bad for you.  Moving to such a sweet spot after always being teased in MI, only to have an anomalous winter.... maybe it's you.

Haha...seriously! In Michigan, the storms continuously kept missing me to the south...Now they have been missing me a county to the north!

[wolfie09]

Democracy ies

Capital Weather Gang Analysis

The Weather Service prepares to launch prediction model that many forecasters don’t trust
On Dec. 4, the FV3 model from the National Weather Service predicted a major snowstorm for Washington five days later. The storm missed the city. It is slated to become the Weather Service's flagship model in March. (TropicalTidBits.com)

By Jason Samenow

February 14

In a month, the National Weather Service plans to launch its “next generation” weather prediction model with the aim of “better, more timely forecasts.” But many meteorologists familiar with the model fear it is unreliable.

The introduction of a model that forecasters lack confidence in matters, considering the enormous impact that weather has on the economy, valued at around $485 billion annually.

The Weather Service announced Wednesday that the model, known as the GFS-FV3 (FV3 stands for Finite­ Volume Cubed-Sphere dynamical core), is “tentatively” set to become the United States’ primary forecast model on March 20, pending tests. It is an update to the current version of the GFS (Global Forecast System), popularly known as the American model, which has existed in various forms for more than 30 years.

Keep Reading

[The Weather Service just took a critical first step in creating a new U.S. forecasting model]

The introduction of the FV3 is intended as the Weather Service’s next step toward building the best weather prediction model in the world, a stated priority of the Trump administration. The current GFS model trails the European model in accuracy, and it has for many years, despite millions of dollars in congressional funding dating back to 2012, after Hurricane Sandy hit.

[Trump administration official says it’s a ‘top priority’ to improve U.S. weather forecasting model]

Numerous meteorologists who have experience using the FV3 worry it’s not ready for prime time and have been underwhelmed by its performance. For months, its predictions have been publicly available, on an experimental basis for forecasters to evaluate.

When news broke about the Weather Service’s intention to make the FV3 the United States’ primary model, meteorologists unleashed a torrent of complaints and negative reviews on Twitter.

“It has not been good at all,” tweeted Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist for NBC4 in Washington. “Scary that this is what we are about to go with on a permanent basis.”

 

the Weatherboy@theWeatherboy

 

 

...FV3 GFS performance lately...

 

1

5:16 AM - Feb 5, 2019

 

See the Weatherboy's other Tweets

“From what I have seen . . . not impressed,” tweeted Ryan Hanrahan, chief meteorologist for the NBC affiliate Hartford.

"I have no faith in the FV3 [for snowfall forecasts].” tweeted Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at Atmospheric Environmental Research known for his long-range prediction of the polar vortex.

Mike Smith, who recently retired as a senior vice president at AccuWeather, said the FV3 is not an improvement over the model it will replace. “I don’t see any way in which FV3 provides better weather forecasts versus the current GFS,” he tweeted.

Rob Dale@therobdale

 

 

And meteorologists far and wide said "NNNNOOOOO. Even the GFS is better than the FV3....."

NWS EMC Social Media@NWSEMC

 

After being delayed by the government shutdown, FV3-GFS is now tentatively scheduled to go operational on Mar 20, pending successful completion of the 30-day technical test.

 

1

5:44 PM - Feb 13, 2019

Twitter Ads info and privacy

 

See Rob Dale's other Tweets

 

 

The model has tended to overpredict snowfall in the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, setting off false alarms in a region where forecasts are particularly consequential.

In Boston, which has seen just six inches of snow this winter, Eric Fisher, chief meteorologist for the CBS affiliate, remarkedthat the model had predicted “multiple” 30-inch snowfalls.

Here in Washington, we have documented multiple cases in which its snowfall forecasts several days into the future have been erroneously high. In early December, it was predicting double-digit amounts for Washington four days before a storm tracked to the south and no snow fell.

On Monday, the FV3 was predicting double-digit totals for a storm on Saturday in the Washington region, and it now calls for little snow.

FV3 model snow forecast for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Saturday issued on Tuesday. It predicted over 10 inches for Washington, and current forecasts are now for little or no accumulation. (TropicalTidBits.com)

Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, has traced the problems in its snowfall forecasts to predicting temperatures “far too cold in the lower atmosphere” more than a few days into the future.

“One impact of this cold bias is the production of too much snow at low levels — a problem seen consistently around the country,” Mass said in an email. He called the problem “very serious and very large.”

A concern is that if forecasters cannot rely on the FV3, they will be left to rely only on the European model for their predictions without a credible alternative for comparisons. And they’ll also have to pay large fees for the European model data. Whereas model data from the Weather Service is free, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which produces the European model, charges for access.

But there is an alternative perspective, which is that forecasters will just need to adjust to the new model and learn to account for its biases. That is, a little short-term pain is worth the long-term potential benefits as the model improves.

“One can think of the new model as a brand new 2019 automobile replacing your old, trusty grocery getter,” Ryan Maue, a meteorologist specializing in modeling who helps operate the website weathermodels.com, said in an email. “The current GFS model has been adjusted and fine-tuned to squeeze out the best performance possible, but it has reached its time for retirement. . . . Meteorologists will need to adjust their seat belts for the next several months as they get used to the new system.”

The Weather Service stands strongly behind the model. Its director, Louis Uccellini, said the model underwent “rigorous and unprecedented testing and validation” over three separate summers, winters and hurricane seasons..

“The scientific and performance evaluation over the past year shows that the new dynamic core provides results equal to or better than the current global model in many measures, although additional improvements are still needed,” he wrote in a statement. “This upgrade to the GFS establishes the foundation to enable those advancements in the future as we improve data quality control, data assimilation, physics and other upgrades to the model.”

Meteorologists outside the Weather Service do not doubt that, in the long run, the FV3 can improve and help the United States make strides in weather prediction.

“As an optimist, I see the ‘American model’ trending in the right direction and am willing to see how it further evolves,” wrote Marshall Shepherd, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Georgia, in a commentary at Forbes.

The Weather Service’s parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, recently entered an agreement with the National Center for Atmospheric Research to increase collaboration between forecasters and researchers in improving forecast modeling.

In addition, President Trump recently signed into law the Weather Research and Forecast Innovation Act Reauthorization, which establishes the NOAA Earth Prediction Innovation Center, aimed at further enhancing prediction capabilities.

But even while NOAA develops relationships and infrastructure to improve the Weather Service’s modeling, the question remains whether the FV3 can meet the forecasting needs of the moment. Until the problems identified are addressed, its introduction could represent a step back in U.S. weather prediction despite a well-intended effort to leap forward.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Not a big fan of the FV3 so far, hopefully they make improvements. 

[rochesterdave]

Good article. It really does over predict the snow. I can’t tell you how many times it’s painted us with green; while the number of times that has verified was 1. 

[rochesterdave]

I’m starting to like this upcoming storm. It travels a perfect little path for all of us to see 2-4, 3-5”. 

[wolfie09]

Good thing it debuts in spring, NOAA has 8 months to try and alleviate the problem..lol

[wolfie09]

Later Sunday afternoon and evening a modest southern stream system
will track from the Tennessee Valley to about Pittsburgh...from
which point onward it will slide eastward along the Mason-Dixon
line and off the mid-Atlantic coastline later Sunday night and
Monday morning. Over the past couple of days the various guidance
packages have universally trended northward and come into much
better agreement with the track of this system...with all guidance
now suggesting a rough 18 to 24 hour-long period of steady light
snow across much of our region between late Sunday afternoon/Sunday
evening and the first half of Monday. With this in mind have
continued the steady upward trend in PoPs...with these now raised
to categorical south of Lake Ontario and to likely/chance across
the North Country...where a fairly sharp northern cutoff to the
snow still looks to be in place.

Initially the snow should be forced by a combination of weak warm
air advection and DCVA...followed by weak deformation and upsloping
later on in the event. With the more northerly track to the system
and deeper moisture and somewhat better forcing consequently available
to work with...total snowfall amounts between late Sunday afternoon
and Monday have come up a bit more...and now look to range on the
order of 2-4 inches south of Lake Ontario to a half inch to an inch
near the Saint Lawrence River. Should the current northward trend
continue...it is not at all out of the question that amounts could
potentially reach the lower end of the advisory range in places
south of Lake Ontario...a mention of which will be added to the
HWO. Stay tuned...

0z Euro

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Yeah that's a nice advisory event.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro has a bunch of cutters in LR. 

[CNY_WX]

Euro is stronger with the southeast ridge. 

[rochesterdave]

It’s close, but I think it will have just enough rotation to pick up some enhancement on the the south shore. I could see Roc easily verifying advisory amounts. Small chance of 6”. Very small. But these typically over perform near Roc. Not a big deal but fun. 

[rochesterdave]

I actually wrote that up prior to seeing the BUF Disco. Glad to see they are on board. 

[TugHillMatt]

Fluffy big snowflakes coming down this morning. Pretty outside...

[TugHillMatt]

No wonder why it is so busy this weekend up here...snow will be ruined AGAIN by the end of the week with another cutter...and then another....What an irritating winter.