Upstate/Eastern New York

[CNY_WX]

I hit 80 inches today for the season.  Hopefully 100 inches are a given but you never know with the pattern we’re in!

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

So a total crap shoot for the forecast tomorrow...


Likewise, a few hours post-frontal, inversion heights increase
and shear decreases, so lake effect snow showers will start to
likewise develop in the Buffalo area and eventually east of Lake
Ontario. Localized blowing snow will rapidly start to occur in
areas that see snow, however there is little to hang your hat on
at this point that would indicate much in the way of
accumulation. So, the decision was made to stick with wind
advisories rather than winter weather advisories for blowing
snow and wind. Time will tell if that was the best approach, but
for now it seems reasonable.


.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Best guess on the ice is showing a lot of open water tomorrow afternoon...




.

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Best guess on the ice is showing a lot of open water tomorrow afternoon...




.

Well we did receive almost 5" of friction lake effect yesterday and not one model picked that up, in fact there was damn near Blizzard conditions for a good 3 hours late afternoon early evening in buffalo. I would not be surprised at a repeat 2 days after.

[TugHillMatt]

I just look at the models now and just roll my eyes anymore.

WSW flow with EVERY event. My gosh...so tiring. I would rather live 50 miles away and know I am not going to get it rather than sitting on the edge every flipping time. Maybe this is normal.here.

[rochesterdave]

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

I just look at the models now and just roll my eyes anymore.

WSW flow with EVERY event. My gosh...so tiring. I would rather live 50 miles away and know I am not going to get it rather than sitting on the edge every flipping time. Maybe this is normal.here.

Yeah. I definitely think you overestimated what your region typically gets. The crazy stuff is over the high tug elevations north of Redfield. 

IDK. You probably got a foot over the last 36 hrs. Sounds good to me. 

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I just look at the models now and just roll my eyes anymore.

WSW flow with EVERY event. My gosh...so tiring. I would rather live 50 miles away and know I am not going to get it rather than sitting on the edge every flipping time. Maybe this is normal.here.

It’s definitely not normal. It’s an anamoly. Your region probably averages 275-300” on a normal year. Carols at 180” on the year so far. You have to be around 150”? 

[weatherbo]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

I just look at the models now and just roll my eyes anymore.

WSW flow with EVERY event. My gosh...so tiring. I would rather live 50 miles away and know I am not going to get it rather than sitting on the edge every flipping time. Maybe this is normal.here.

I feel so bad for you.  Moving to such a sweet spot after always being teased in MI, only to have an anomalous winter.... maybe it's you.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Meanwhile MI is having one of their best yrs ever, lol, and you moved, isn't it ironic, don't ya think?

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Once again, an advisory for the Eastern Lake Ontario Region, what does that mean exactly? I wont see a 1/2" from whatever comes through tonight so why are we under a WWA, seriously though, what's the reason this time KBUF?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[CNY-WXFREAK]

The next one to watch out for significant accumulations is from next Wed-Fri as all 3 globals are on it now with mostly frozen precip!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

One of the biggest busts in recent memory from WxBell, just absolutely horrific, WoW and the next 16 days in the NE is just ugly. Anyone take a look at Europe?  Their having one of the warmest Jan-Fab periods on record and a warm Europe Teleconnects fairly well with a Strong SE ridge.  Now we can really put a coffin in this Winter, lol, just unreal.

But it doesn't mean it can't snow in the NE cause it most certainly can and probably will as we're in a big battle zone!

[CNY_WX]

850 anomalies over Europe this weekend:

[weatherbo]

4 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Meanwhile MI is having one of their best yrs ever, lol, and you moved, isn't it ironic, don't ya think?

lol, ever?  IDK about that, I'm only around 30" above normal.  Definitely no complaints.

[winter_rules]

As someone who plays in the snow as much as I can, I think the overall frustration this winter in NY and the Northeast is the repeated thaws that seem to be happening more than once per week for the past several weeks.  Total snowfall isn’t far off “normal”, but that doesn’t mean much when snowpack is repeatedly reduced or even wiped out completely in between snowfalls.  Snowpack, not total snowfall, is what matters to anyone who “uses” the snow for hobbies. 

 

To that point, this is what TugHillMatt should try to focus on - his consistent snowpack which might increase or decrease but never really disappears until April. This is nearly always the case in his location and points North and East from him.  I was on the East side of Tug Hill and then over toward Forestport/White Lake/Old Forge yesterday and Tug Hill, as always this time of the year, has plenty of snow on the ground and 6ft snowbanks along the “snow tunnels”, i.e. roads.  This is in +/-2,000ft ASL areas that haven’t had any major snowfalls (the late January heavy lake effect stayed North of the area I was in).  The Black River Valley is a different story of course, then snowpack increases again heading East of the valley into the Adirondacks. 

 

Long story short, enjoy the snow when it’s here because, this year, it might not last more than a day! 

[BuffaloWeather]

I've cross country skied twice this winter, but haven't been to Holiday yet. Hoping to do that later this month or into march. They have had enough snow to ski for awhile, but not great conditions at all. Haven't been able to snowmobile at all, my brother in law went once. 

[BuffaloWeather]

April 5th I'll be on a South Florida beach, can't wait. This up and down weather gives my head fits. A few sinus infections already this winter. 

[rochesterdave]

Rochester genuinely has had a crap winter. Even with drastic over measuring at the airport we are still below normal. I’ll say it again, ‘it feels like a 30” winter’ as opposed to 65”. 

The thaw/ freeze cycle has been manic. Leaving us with sheets of ice and minimal snowpack. I don’t think we’ve had a single day over 12”. 

I really need to move somewhere with better winters. Or at least purchase a vacation home in the North Country. What lake in the Adirondacks gets the most snow? 

I like Brantingham but it doesn’t get tons as it’s close to a valley. I also like Piseco but I can’t seem to line it up with snowfall maps. 

[rochesterdave]

1 hour ago, winter_rules said:

.  The Black River Valley is a different story of course, then snowpack increases again heading East of the valley into the Adirondacks. 

 

Yeah, I think I know what you’re talking about. This area is like: Lowville? Do they suffer that much from elevation drop? 

Turin seems to be on the west edge and Brantingham is on the east edge. Boonville gets good snow though? 

I’d appreciate your thoughts on this region and how the valley impacts it. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Looks like there's a bunch of open area out near Cleveland, the entire south shore, and near long point. Could be interesting this afternoon.

[AppsRunner]

7 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Once again, an advisory for the Eastern Lake Ontario Region, what does that mean exactly? I wont see a 1/2" from whatever comes through tonight so why are we under a WWA, seriously though, what's the reason this time KBUF?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Because BUF issues for the entire county, which includes 8NNW Redfield. Don't blame the folks at BUF

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Luke_Mages said:

Looks like there's a bunch of open area out near Cleveland, the entire south shore, and near long point. Could be interesting this afternoon.

Yeah only 66% covered.

[wolfie09]

Here is the expected snowfall..

[winter_rules]

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah, I think I know what you’re talking about. This area is like: Lowville? Do they suffer that much from elevation drop? 

Turin seems to be on the west edge and Brantingham is on the east edge. Boonville gets good snow though? 

I’d appreciate your thoughts on this region and how the valley impacts it. 

Dave, You describe it well, except Lowville and Boonville often have similar “lower” snow depths.  Basically follow NYS Rte 12 from Boonville to Lowville and then offset maybe +/-3 miles on each side (East and West) to define the Black River Valley that always has much less snow.  It’s a combination of:

A) Lower elevation and the temperature and precipitation effects that come with that, and;

b) Picture a westerly wind coming off Lake Ontario with a nice lake effect plume (the one TugHillMatt has been waiting for).  The air upslopes up Tug Hill, then downslopes down into the valley, then upslopes again into the Adirondacks.  A north/south line from Brantingham to, say, Forestport is where you often start to see the snow depth becoming impressive again.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Just use these cams to pick out a good spot for snow depth. This place always has a few feet on the ground

http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm

 

[wolfie09]

Emcwf has been cracking down from what i've heard so can't post paid images anymore..

12z is meh for wed..Some how parts of VA, nj and all of PA see several inches of front end but it's all mix for upstate lol

Goes right from snow to mix once it gets north of PA, can't make this stuff up lol.. I wish i could post the snowmap lol

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Emcwf has been cracking down from what i've heard so can't post paid images anymore..

12z is meh for wed..Some how parts of VA, nj and all of PA see several inches of front end but it's all mix for upstate lol

Goes right from snow to mix once it gets north of PA, can't make this stuff up lol.. I wish i could post the snowmap lol

Yeah long range looks pretty meh. It brings us right into March. March is usually our best synoptic month around here. 

Potential for small events on Monday and Weds. 

[winter_rules]

36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just use these cams to pick out a good spot for snow depth. This place always has a few feet on the ground

http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm

 

Yes, that’s a good spot.  That’s roughly the NW corner for the “deep snow depth on the Tug.”  Snow drops off dramatically North of NYS Rte 177 which is only +/-3 miles north of that cam.  

[lakeeffectkid383]

Lake doesn’t look like she wants to fire up at all today so far, that could change in a few hours as the cold air deepens and delta t’s become bigger but even out over Western Lake Erie there’s hardly any returns on radar. 

[WNash]

35 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Lake doesn’t look like she wants to fire up at all today so far, that could change in a few hours as the cold air deepens and delta t’s become bigger but even out over Western Lake Erie there’s hardly any returns on radar. 

Sunshine up here - wondering if this is a good indication that the lake is pretty well frozen up.