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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted
Just now, WesterlyWx said:

Looking back over the Western Great Lakes the flow is still SW to SSW all the way back to upper Michigan so looks like it may be quite a while before winds realign sending a more consolidated band back into the northtowns to airport to Cheektowaga corridor. 

Maybe it's just me but already a subtle shift on CLE radar per last few frames?

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

Winds certainly look to be turning back towards a more more SW flow on the far western end of the lake if you loop this satellite image.  Running out of daylight though.  Anyway, looks like things are realigning nicely.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-LakeErie-01-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really picturesque scene here as the snow growth is better and dendrites flutter to the ground. 

Mod snow reported at the airport with visibility around a quarter mile. 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=wrh&sid=Kart&num=64#
(5 minute obs)

Yeah, radar looks great up there right now.  Looks like some solid enhancement to the synoptic moisture. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted 
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Synoptic snow continues east of Lake Ontario this afternoon.  After
a burst of heavy lake effect snow NE of lake Erie this morning, flow
has backed further to the SW.  The synoptic snow east of Lake
Ontario will take several more hours to move east of the region with
another 3-6 inches there, then the focus turns to lake effect this
evening.

The much awaited arctic blast is centered over MN per water vapor
imagery/PV analysis together with surface obs currently in the -25F
range.  The PV intrusion itself won`t arrive until Wed and will mark
the worst of the weather for WNY, with highest winds (near blizzard
conditions) and coldest temperatures lasting into Wed evening.

The details...

Tonight...A lake band is expected to reform NE of Lake Erie just
after the main commute this evening - probably around 6-7 PM or so
as the initial surge of cold air aloft moves in.  The band may waver
a little for a few hours before locking directly over Buffalo, the
airport, Northtowns, and points ENE into Genesee County near or just
north of Batavia. Increasingly strong winds should also direct the
band to just about Rochester overnight.  Snow amounts, on top of the
several that fell early this morning, should amount to generally 5
to 10 inches under the band.  At least through the overnight hours,
this band will have minimal affect for the Southtowns, Boston hills,
and much of Wyoming County.

East of Lake Ontario, once the synoptic snow ends, there may be some
lake development toward morning around or north of Watertown, but
the main event will lag until later Wednesday.

Wednesday....

This period will feature the meat of the event that will last into
Wednesday evening.  A combination of temperatures near 0F,
borderline localized blizzard conditions under lake effect snow,
with winds resulting in wind chills near -25F will make this one of
the more extreme weather events for about 5 years (since Jan 2014).
This will result in a hazardous to dangerous situation for any one
ill-prepared for being in the outdoors. Motorists should be urged to
stay off the roads, and if absolutely necessary, take an emergency
kit.

East of Lake Erie...a stout lake band will make it`s reinforce it`s
own weather.  This means that once set up, it will likely resist
synoptic winds that slowly veer with time.  With this in mind, have
forced a lake band to stay put directly over KBUF and points ENE for
the morning and early afternoon.  Will nod toward the models
eventually pushing the snow further south with time, but it may only
affecting the Southtowns in the afternoon.  Further to the south,
northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties will likely remain out
of this event - at least until late Wed afternoon or early eve.

It is important to note that snow amounts will be secondary to wind
chills and whiteouts, but overall expect another 5-10 inches under
the band. Snow amounts will be difficult to measure, and from a
meteorological standpoint, are nearly impossible to forecast with
increasing Lake Erie ice coverage (wind speeds NOT helping),
temperatures aloft way colder than the typical dendritic growth
zone, and snowflake formation effectively nil due to winds ripping
apart any crystal formation.  This will result in a "dusty" snow
that will contribute to near zero visibilities and possibly over-
forecast snow amounts - again not that you`ll be able to measure
any.  More of a concern will be drifts.

The band should eventually make it south of Buffalo sometime
Wednesday evening and refocus over the Southtowns, but snow rates by
this time may be even harder to come by, again with tiny flakes
making near zero visibility more of a problem than overall snow
amounts.  For what it`s worth, another 4-8 inches are possible
within the band.

East of Lake Ontario...

The lake band near or north of Watertown should get going around or
before sunrise with continued intensity during the day.  This band
will eventually outpace the Lake Erie band in terms of intensity, as
snow rates will probably reach and possibly exceed 3"/hr by
afternoon.  The band may slowly recenter itself toward the northern
sections of the Tug Hill Plateau late in the day.  Similar to Lake
Erie, this band will play second fiddle to the extreme cold airmass,
whiteouts, and wind chills near -25F or lower.  Snow amounts under
the heart of the band will initially near 5-10 inches during the
day, but with significantly higher amounts possible Wednesday night,
where 12 hr totals could exceed a foot.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday morning, there still will be intense lake effect
snowfall ongoing - especially east of Lake Ontario. All the
ingredients will be in place, with 850mb around -25C there will be
plenty of lake induced instability, and upstream lakes and a mid-
level trough will provide ample moisture. The heaviest snows will be
east of Lake Ontario, focused on the Tug Hill between Watertown and
Pulaski. Well aligned westerly winds and upsloping will support
localized snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Lake snow will also
continue off Lake Erie, with the steadiest snows between Dunkirk and
West Seneca...extending eastward to the Boston and Wyoming Hills. By
this time, there may be some additional ice on Lake Erie, but with
the wave action suspect that model guidance (and QPF) is
overestimating the amount of ice that will form on Lake Erie.
Because of this, the forecast is for much more snow off Lake Erie
than model guidance would otherwise suggest.

In addition to the snow, gusty winds will continue on Thursday which
will result in areas of blowing snow. The strongest winds will be
north of I-90 and west of I-81 where winds will gust to 35-40 mph.
Daytime temperatures will remain in the single digits, resulting in
bitterly cold wind chills of -20F to -30F for much of the day.
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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Not even a flower here in Syracuse as I just came back from Rochester Phelps where it was snowing not early in fact got back to Syracuse not even a flurry . If this keeps up Syracuse is going to end the year perhaps with record low snowfall! In fact unless we have a blockbuster February and at least some snow in March I think below-normal snowfall is a lock this year

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

It’s snowing light to moderate here coming up on one inch. I believe Syracuse has already surpassed it’s record low snowfall. 

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
Just now, BuffaloWeather said: 

 Can't beat this. Posting for posterity. 

  Heavy lake effect snow. Dangerously cold wind chills
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 4 feet in the
  most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
  Wind chills as low as 30 below zero expected.

Wha?? That's something you would read from the top of Mt. Rainier or something...lol

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Phillifan22

Phillifan22

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 

 Can't beat this. Posting for posterity. 

  Heavy lake effect snow. Dangerously cold wind chills
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 4 feet in the
  most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
  Wind chills as low as 30 below zero expected.

Excited to be chasing the band off Ontario on Thursday!

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Did it, oh ok then as I wasn't aware but I'd bet money we dint pass 100" this season so we'll see for sure!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Syracuse only had 50.6 in 2011-2012 so you won't be anywhere near that pathetic year.  That was the year Buffalo was sub 40"  The true year without winter.  

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Did it, oh ok then as I wasn't aware but I'd bet money we dint pass 100" this season so we'll see for sure!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Snowing in Syracuse.  Steady but not heavy. KSYR tracking close to normal for seasonal snowfall thusfar thanks to November. 

Looks like a 7-10 day break is upcoming though, other than some extra cold for a few days this week.

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