CNY_WX Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Little different low placement? Wow that’s a pretty big change this late in the game. Definitely delays the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Wish the NWS offices would produce snow maps where the time periods were consistent with each other. Even so, BGM is calling for much less in the Southern Tug area than BUF. For tomorrow's event, BUF is saying 14 to 18, while BGM says 6 to 10. Thinking it may fall in between those two calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Precip all along the South Shore just shot up and over 1" liq eq on the Euro so perhaps as the system jumps the Rockies its getting better sampled as I wholeheartedly believe when a system is over the inter-mountain region, along the Rockies, its just not sampled properly, cause this will be the third time now a system, after its passed, and starts to redevelop along the lee side of the Rockies, and it moves out into the open plains everything changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Is that the 06z run of euro your talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Regardless of p type this is going to be an interesting storm to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On00z euro shows half inch liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Here is the front end on the Nam.. We should see some 1"-2" hour rates tomorrow afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Here was the 0z euro on the front end.. All of this falls in 6 hours between 18z and 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 No more downsloping, which made no sense to begin with lol Nws forecast of 4"-8" tomorrow looks pretty good, then we mix.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Yeah 06Z Euro bumped up totals big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Rgem bumped up snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I could see Toronto doing well. That town never wins and it’s having a BIG winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 For BUF-Roc there just is nothing to stop that warm punch of air. It trains up Erie and onto the Niagara escarpment. North Country still looks good. As does ENY. Battleground (in my feeble mind) is Oswego County and just NE of Syracuse. Hoping on that dry slot once the upper warmth rolls in. Because it ain’t gonna last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 hours ago, rochesterdave said: For BUF-Roc there just is nothing to stop that warm punch of air. It trains up Erie and onto the Niagara escarpment. North Country still looks good. As does ENY. Battleground (in my feeble mind) is Oswego County and just NE of Syracuse. Hoping on that dry slot once the upper warmth rolls in. Because it ain’t gonna last! Yup, this is a just a big nasty rainstorm for KROC, no way to get around this one. Then it rains again, and again, and again, and again in the coming weeks. Just a bad pattern for upstate. Other places are having the best winter of their lives. That's how the weather goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Really. I don't see a rainstorm at all. Maybe flip to drizzle showers after alot of frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 rainstorm after rainstorm after rainstorm, lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 It doesn’t matter to me if it’s rain, or sleet, or snizzle, or frz, once it’s not snow- it’s BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I'm not sure if this is an inhouse run model by the WPC or an Actual Forecast lol NCEP WPC 2.5 KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Right across the lake an entirely different storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Its pretty crazy the difference in winter weather expectations/dealing with snow between LE areas and non-LE areas. Toronto should see 6-10" from this and for me down in Hamilton 4-8". Theres already talk of stay off the roads, work from home if you can, most likely numerous school cancellations. Our local weather station (The weather network) is in storm watch mode. However, you guys just saw widespread 10-20" two weeks ago, that would most likely have crippled Toronto for days. You guys are definitely more prepared for snow compared to us which is funny since it runs against the American-Canadian stereotype of Canadians being winter hardened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Hi rez canadian is all over the place haha It's still on the warmer side along with the rgem, changing us over 3 hours earlier then the Euro/Nam. TT is the worst lol Counts everything as snow, even rain ..Piviotal is way better but doesn't house the hrdps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Pretty much all the models give me over a foot by Wednesday evening. Maybe this could actually be a good event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Really. I don't see a rainstorm at all. Maybe flip to drizzle showers after alot of frozen I think ROC will go above freezing sometime around mid afternoon tomorrow and stay there until 6am Wednesday. Not even sure how much precip we will get with downsloping and dry slotting but It's a swing and a miss for my backyard. And if we do get precip for those 15 hours above freezing, thats called a rainstorm. Remember 3 weeks ago when we saw all these rainstorms on the horizon and people assured me it wouldnt happen? Well, it happened, and it keeps happening. It's an ugly pattern and its locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 This is a non event for WNY IMO. These low pressure tracks rarely produce for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 49 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Its pretty crazy the difference in winter weather expectations/dealing with snow between LE areas and non-LE areas. Toronto should see 6-10" from this and for me down in Hamilton 4-8". Theres already talk of stay off the roads, work from home if you can, most likely numerous school cancellations. Our local weather station (The weather network) is in storm watch mode. However, you guys just saw widespread 10-20" two weeks ago, that would most likely have crippled Toronto for days. You guys are definitely more prepared for snow compared to us which is funny since it runs against the American-Canadian stereotype of Canadians being winter hardened. I find Toronto isn't that winter hardened, though. Having lived in both Toronto and Ottawa, I've noticed that Toronto just isn't as ready for this kind of event. If 4" is forecast, people panic. Toronto, for me, is a city that often tries to deny that it's part of a country with a winter climate. There isn't even a winter carnival like in muskoka, Ottawa, Montreal or Quebec City. All festivals tend to be geared towards warm weather. For Toronto, winter is an inconvenience to get through, not a season to embrace and make the best of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I find Toronto isn't that winter hardened, though. Having lived in both Toronto and Ottawa, I've noticed that Toronto just isn't as ready for this kind of event. If 4" is forecast, people panic. Toronto, for me, is a city that often tries to deny that it's part of a country with a winter climate. There isn't even a winter carnival like in muskoka, Ottawa, Montreal or Quebec City. All festivals tend to be geared towards warm weather. For Toronto, winter is an inconvenience to get through, not a season to embrace and make the best of. Well Toronto has 4-5 million people. It's tough to compare to that amount of infrastructure and population. There is less then 4-5 million across all of New York State if you subtract NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think ROC will go above freezing sometime around mid afternoon tomorrow and stay there until 6am Wednesday. Not even sure how much precip we will get with downsloping and dry slotting but It's a swing and a miss for my backyard. And if we do get precip for those 15 hours above freezing, thats called a rainstorm. Remember 3 weeks ago when we saw all these rainstorms on the horizon and people assured me it wouldnt happen? Well, it happened, and it keeps happening. It's an ugly pattern and its locked in. If the winds turn even the slightest south of east, it will be a rainstorm. Hoping it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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