wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 As far as the weather/precipitation goes...expect initial light snow to be across much of WNY by the start of this period. A southeast wind will bring gusty winds across WNY, especially the downslope Chautauqua Ridge to the Lake Erie shoreline corridor where gusts will reach 45 mph. There is some hints (00Z NAM) that the LLJ may be stronger than forecasted...and if this is the case we could see downslope wind gusts in excess of 45 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline. The southerly flow and LLJ will aid in transporting milder air northward through the day such that the snow will transition to a wintry mix. There will likely be a brief window of sleet/freezing rain as a warm layer noses northward aloft. As the surface temperatures warm through Tuesday and into Tuesday evening a period of plain rain will be found. Some areas of WNY could see a half an inch of rainfall...this in addition to what QPF falls as snow/wintry mix. Rain plus melted snow will bring ponding of water across low lying areas. Along the warm front and locations northward isentropic accent and low level convergence will bring ample lift for a period of moderate to heavy snowfall. Snow will begin to intensify by midday Tuesday, with widespread moderate to heavy snow producing snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour across areas east of Lake Ontario. This heavy snow will continue east of Lake Ontario into the evening hours and here is where winter storm warnings will be in place for snowfall Tuesday - Tuesday night in excess of a foot. The heavy snow will end as a well defined dry slot passes across the region and the LLJ shifts eastward resulting in a loss of low level lift. Tuesday night colder air will sweep across the region from west to east. Along this occluded front there will likely be additional light snow. In addition later in the night a cold west wind will bring lake enhanced and upslope snows...off Lake Erie...and more pronounced off Lake Ontario where lake waters remain open. By Tuesday night areas inland across the Genesee valley and Finger Lakes region will have times of little to no snowfall. Wednesday colder air will continue to push across the region with 850 hPa temperatures lowering to around -12 to -15C. It will be a brisk day with a tight pressure gradient bringing a west to northwest wind producing gusts to 50 mph across the Lake Plain. Factoring in the colder temperatures it will feel like the upper single digits to mid teens throughout the day. Snows (both lake enhanced and upslope) east of the Lakes Wednesday will begin to taper down as the surface low and upper level low lift off to the northeast. However it will remain cold enough with ample moisture for lake effect snow to become predominate. Streamers of snow are possible east of Lake Erie...with minor accumulations of an inch or two across the hills. Off Lake Ontario a band of snow will bring more impressive snowfall totals, with lake snows through the night. The band of snow will shift southward through the night, reaching the southeastern shoreline of Lake Ontario near Oswego County Thursday morning. While light lake effect snow will end off Lake Erie by late Wednesday night, it will not be until Thursday midday before inversion heights fall and moisture depletes that lake snows off Lake Ontario will end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I wonder how much is front end and how much is back end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 8 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: The ICON is a worthless piece of garbage but when I saw the GFS come in a tick or two warmer with tonights 00Z then I got a bit worried so we wait for the Euro to put the nail in the Coffin! ICON has been the best model this year for amounts and type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Wow, 18 to 24 inches for me? I hope this is the one time their map comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 P-type? The darn model only shows rain vs snow, it can't even show sleet/zr 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Smart to F.ck hole the valley and SW. Way too much for Oswego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: ICON has been the best model this year for amounts and type. Dave, where do you come up with this stuff? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: P-type? The darn model only shows rain vs snow, it can't even show sleet/zr I don’t care about sleet vs frz rain, I’m talking not seeing sleet as snow totals bro. The ICON has had lower totals because it caught the taint. Canadian has been bad cause it doesn’t see it. IDK. I’m sticking with it. Let’s see. I made my call at 10pm last night. Maybe it’ll all be snow and you guys can say what a fool I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 my niece was just called off school after a 2 hour delay. most likely wont go tomorrow either. she all rdy has a in service this fri and off next monday for the holiday. so far about 2 inchs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 whats more funny is that is not the enire event..Only valid till wed PM.. Nws still has pops at 90% wed night and thur.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Icon showed all rain almost all week..It was a straight cutter with no secondary .. It now has 4"-6" on the front end, it has already FAILED.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 You guys seriously saying the ICON hasn’t been great with totals? In Roc it’s just dominated. Yeah, I used to just look at it for kicks and thought it was a joke. But not any more. Resolution isn’t everything. The new GFS has the most resolution and the big mets already say it’s terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Good cause no one really cares about your call. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: You guys seriously saying the ICON hasn’t been great with totals? In Roc it’s just dominated. Yeah, I used to just look at it for kicks and thought it was a joke. But not any more. Resolution isn’t everyWe thing. The new GFS has the most resolution and the big mets already say it’s terrible. We DON"T care about KROC! The Big Mets vs 's what the small, lol? Just stop please, WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon showed all rain all week..It now has 4"-6" on the front end, it has already FAILED.. It's a horrific model point blank. Its so bad thats its not included in verification scoring, lol, but your other favorite is, the CMC, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 your acting as if the icon gives no snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon showed all rain all week..It now has 4"-6" on the front end, it has already FAILED.. Well, the ICON is only 120 hrs. It’s had Roc at 1-2” while the others all had 12”. So let’s see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Its so bad the the NE forum use's it as their last last resort behind the Frenchie, lol, yeah the French have a model, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Sneeking suspicion this ends up colder in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Event will be here in less than 24hrs and we'll see which model does the best, K! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 The Icon and new GFS should hold hands and go for a walk...off a cliff. The NAM 3k can tag along as a third wheel as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Good cause no one really cares about your call. lol! And people care about your ravings? I did like the Canadian at one time. You are correct buddy. But it hasn’t done well this year. Look, I understand you guys getting hostile. I do. I’m being a pessimistic little bitch. But can none of you see that the ICON has done well this year? Come on? I can’t be the only one? And Wolfie, the North country does well on upslope after the punch. You know that. I’m talking change over. So sure the north country gonna get 6”+. But the big models had 18” all week. Come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 If that parent LP gets up to GB like some globals have it, we mix and probably go over to rn for a while, s I'm not confident we even make wsw criteria right now, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I get what you are saying, Dave. But I think this is an instance of where the ICON's awfulness worked out for it. It didn't sniff out anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Ski trip to Killington. Still had lots of snow from Ballston Spa to S VT. I’m the ugly one.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: And people care about your ravings? I did like the Canadian at one time. You are correct buddy. But it hasn’t done well this year. Look, I understand you guys getting hostile. I do. I’m being a pessimistic little bitch. But can none of you see that the ICON has done well this year? Come on? I can’t be the only one? And Wolfie, the North country does well on upslope after the punch. You know that. I’m talking change over. So sure the north country gonna get 6”+. But the big models had 18” all week. Come on. No Dave, when your right your right, but this time you are wrong, sorry! It did well with one event his yr, the NE wind event for the KROC area but what about every other event? Your basing your whole argument on one event that it got close to correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Beautiful picture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 But who cares, back to the weather, Watch the Parent SLP today where it forms and how it moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Sneeking suspicion this ends up colder in the end. I was thinking the same...but am extremely reluctant given the winter's theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Little different low placement? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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