tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Models having a hard time with precip type or showing a ton of sleet cause precip amounts don't jive with with snow or freezing rain amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 This has the look of a WAA thump and then mix, dry slot. I'd guess 4-6" for most, maybe 6-8" up near Tug area to north. Enhancement after? Maybe a few inches up east of L.O. but that's about it. Wolfie and TugHillMatt may get 8-12" is my guess. Mostly a WWA event from a snow accum standpoint here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Yeah, I am thinking sleet will be more common than freezing rain. Snow to sleet to some freezing drizzle/plain rain showers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 44 minutes ago, tim123 said: Kinda silly wny is at least not in a watch. Imo. It's real easy to understand, don't know why you don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 For one it's a watch to at least put people on guard. The potential it there for 7 inches of snow plus significant sleet freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 If things become clearer issue a wwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 You guys are gonna see more liquid than anything so I think their not posting Watches further West was definitely a good call IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Speaking of downsloping, the HRWs are showing it....over....Oswego county. Lol UM we don't downslope so thats just idiotic but whatever I guess as that's why they get thrown out the window and are never regarded as useful guidance. Most of the meso's aren't even used during most synoptic events but everyone seems to jump on them all the time. Alls I know is this, if I get 8" of snow with a few 1/10's of ZR then ill be happy cause we can't seem to get anything to work out this season so a 6" plowable snowfall is nice to me, lol as beggers can't be choosey! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: If things become clearer issue a wwa I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 It would be silly to issue a watch IMO. Sleet is the easiest precip to deal with. Roc and BUF will see WELL under 7”. And yes, everything after is snow. A full inch outside of upslope LE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 As usual, ICON has the best handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I gotta be honest the event after the event is gonna be the real show as we'll be hard pressed to get a few inches before we flip to whatever we flip to and then the wrap around which will amount to more than the front end thump with better dynamics, snow growth and lapse rates with a well aligned WNW-NW flow for about 18hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: As usual, ICON has the best handle on it. How do you know what has a better handle on it? Are you serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 If anyone is expecting double digit snows from this event is gonna be surely disappointed even before it begins so I'd lower your expectations dramatically, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 GFS just came in a tick nor 2 warmer so I wouldn't be surprised if we switch over even here in Oswego county for at least 6 hrs before a switch back to some kind of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 In order for us to not get affected by upper lvl warmth nosing in, is a quicker transfer or a weaker parent, which we all know and I just don't see it happening so I'm hoping on a prayer, lol. Here in CNY we warm too quick with a South screaming wind so I don't know what their looking at.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: UM we don't downslope so thats just idiotic but whatever I guess as that's why they get thrown out the window and are never regarded as useful guidance. Most of the meso's aren't even used during most synoptic events but everyone seems to jump on them all the time. Alls I know is this, if I get 8" of snow with a few 1/10's of ZR then ill be happy cause we can't seem to get anything to work out this season so a 6" plowable snowfall is nice to me, lol as beggers can't be choosey! Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Finger Lakes seem get killed by downsloping on any kind of W or SW flow - I’m assuming due to Allegheny Plateau in Western NY/Northern PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 This looking like a whopping 3 to 6 inches, With Jefferson county getting more. The winter of Jefferson county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I don';t even think we get to WSW but rather WWA but thats just me but this it their current thinking. In terms of potential snowfall amounts...at this still-early juncture it still appears that the best potential for a significant (i.e. warning- criteria) snowfall will lie across the far eastern Finger Lakes/Eastern Lake Ontario region and especially the North Country...where the potential for any mix will be lowest and the briefest...and consequently the precip should remain in the form of snow the longest...potentially leading to total snowfall accumulations of 12 to 18 inches over a rough 24 to 36 hour period. Have thus upgraded the Winter Storm Watch for Jefferson and Lewis counties to a Winter Storm Warning. Elsewhere... snowfall amounts should decrease with increasing southwestward extent owing to the progressively earlier arrival of the milder air and the attendant wintry mix/changeover to rain...though current projected snowfall amounts and the potential for a wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain will still likely eventually warrant Winter Weather Advisories. Congrats once again KWRT and the North Country,lol, what a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Really, when you look at what the models were showing just 24 hours ago, this is looking pathetic. Anybody on this forum still holding out hope for a good ending to this winter, or are we pretty well spent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Really, when you look at what the models were showing just 24 hours ago, this is looking pathetic. Anybody on this forum still holding out hope for a good ending to this winter, or are we pretty well spent? I'm almost ready for some sunshine by my pool, with a nice barbeque going, a blue moon in my hand, and some good country tunes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm almost ready for some sunshine by my pool, with a nice barbeque going, a blue moon in my hand, and some good country tunes. You have been there since Thanksgiving. Haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Icon was a cutter with all rain for days, garbage lol Shows the next system as all snow, so yeah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 First guess:' SKYR 4" then slop for several hrs then 2-3" on the backend so totals 4-7" KFZY 5" then slop for several hrs the 3-4" on backend so totals 5-9" KWRT Heavy Snow 12-18" lolli's of 24+ with backside upslope flow, congrats Matt KROC 1-2" then slop for most of the vent then backend snows 1-2" totals 2-4" KBUF 2-3" snow then slop hor remainder of event without much backend anything so 1-3" KBGM 1-2" front end then rain then back to sn showers but no accumulation so 1-2" I doubt anyone see's warnings from this except places to our N&E like Northern Oneida, Herkimer and most of the Mohawk Valley and the Dacks should do fairly well with this set-up but further up in ME is where it really gets a crankin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 The ICON is a worthless piece of garbage but when I saw the GFS come in a tick or two warmer with tonights 00Z then I got a bit worried so we wait for the Euro to put the nail in the Coffin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Nothing but cutter after cutter on the long range so I would really except that fact that this Winter is toast and I wish we can just turn a switch and head into Spring but no dice. The worst part is that El Nino's are notorious for having late Spring starts so that is just horrible if that comes to fruition. What a disappointing Winter and one where I thought was off to a great start in November then it took a drastic turn for the worst but they happen every so often but lately they've been happening way too often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 0z euro pretty much unchanged, if anything it looks a little snowier to the south.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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