BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: They would love to have it this year. I agree. I think there is no such thing as fake snow. The fluffy high ratio snow is the most beautiful to watch fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Looks good for you guys in central NY winter storm watches posted. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow today. Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible Tuesday through Wednesday. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches in the most persistent lake snows today. Snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible Tuesday through Wednesday along with some ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Not liking that ice forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Seriously, NOW the Canadian changes its tune and becomes warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12z op run of Euro looks quite interesting next weekend for most if not all of us. Hopefully that system trends in a good direction over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Time to start riding the euro lol Looked even a little better then lastnights 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Nice little 2 days event.. ...Oswego County... Oswego 17.0 845 AM 2/10 2 day snowfall Fulton 17.0 942 AM 2/10 2-day snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Euro was hardly any mixing, with trace amounts of ice/sleet.. Max 850mb temps are now 0c instead of +2c and max surface is mid-upper 20s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 GFS OP looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro was hardly any mixing, with trace amounts of ice/sleet.. Max 850mb temps are now 0c instead of +2c and max surface is mid-upper 20s.. We're good, WSW up tomorrow morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Para looks really good as well.. Foot and half at 10-1 verbatim..Just like the euro minimal mixing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Maybe me and matt can finally see a decent west wind event on the backside, embedded within the wrap around moisture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 8" of snow fell in the Seattle area yesterday and last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Maybe me and matt can finally see a decsent west wind event on the backside, embedded within the wrap around moisture.. I 100% disagree with the Euro on its wind direction once the system redevelops and heads NE but I may be wrong but I'd bet on a WNW-NW flow so we'll see I suppose as it nailed that WSW flow event up in KWRT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Nam has the most mixing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Nice, they show me getting a foot and a half. Lake effect snow? Pfffft...what's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I hope you both get crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 South shore is a close call. Hoping the primary comes in a little weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Eps looking better than previous runs.. Obviously can't pay much attention to global models and backside enhancement.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I hope you both get crushed. Thanks. Driving to Camden today was painful. As soon as we got to Florence it was quite obvious where the snow band has been all weekend. Camden looks like it got 8 to 12 inches. It would be nice to get one west flow event this winter. Just got back from snowshoeing to the falls on our property. Snow gently falling...Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: 12z op run of Euro looks quite interesting next weekend for most if not all of us. Hopefully that system trends in a good direction over the next few days. Is that for the system that BUF is currently touting will bring highs in the 50s? Or after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 What is the deal with the Nam 3k? It looks awful for good snow anywhere in NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 It's a crappy model still in it's long range..lol It has a mix when all other guidance show Snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 In terms of potential snowfall amounts...at this still-early juncture it still appears that the best potential for a significant (i.e. warning- criteria) snowfall will lie across the far eastern Finger Lakes/Eastern Lake Ontario region and especially the North Country...where the potential for any mix will be lowest and the briefest...and consequently the precip should remain in the form of snow the longest...potentially leading to total snowfall accumulations of 12 to 18 inches over a rough 36 hour period. Elsewhere...snowfall amounts should decrease with increasing southwestward extent owing to the progressively earlier arrival of the milder air and the attendant wintry mix/changeover to rain...though current projected snowfall amounts and the potential for a wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain will still likely eventually warrant Winter Weather Advisories. As has been pointed out previously...it goes without saying that all of this remains highly dependent upon the exact track/strength of the initial primary low and how quickly the transfer of energy to the secondary coastal system takes place. A more northwesterly track to the primary low...a stronger primary low...and/or a delayed transfer of energy to the coastal system would all point to a warmer overall scenario and less snow areawide...while the opposite conditions would favor a colder scenario and more snow overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I do gotta say its a tricky situation but I think we see 8-12" either way. Finger Lakes West is a tougher, situation as with all S-SW wind events, downsloping kills and warm air comes racing Northward. We are lucky as our winds usually stay out of the E-ENE before the occluded front arrives and by then all the warm air is washed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The next event is starting to look more and more promising as its no more a cutter but more like a Spring time bowling ball that sneaks in under the block. At this point it still looks like a good deal of warmer air rushes in but I think that changes with subsequent runs as the models are still catching on to that idea. Vary active pattern incoming for the foreseeable future! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1st guess map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Low end and high end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 1st guess map.. WOW!! But now do we start the upward trend or downward? my doughs on down for sure, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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