wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 57 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: No matter what happens i'm pretty confident we see a nice thump tue afternoon..Prob 4"-8" in a 5-6 hr period.. Wow, thats impressive snow totals for a 6hr period, nice!. Any other guidance showing this scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 So should we ride the FV3 through the gates of Valhalla or the Euro to ultimate doom, lol! I'm gonna ride the FV3 like I did with the other synoptic event where it whipped the but off of the Euro so we'll see how it goes in the end. We do have the CMC on our side, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The euro was good at 12z and it looks even better at 0z from what i can tell.. We are probably going to mix for a little , no biggie to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Euro has that band as well.. .50"-.75" LE in the first 6 hours of precip, then we flip to some light ice and right back to snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Yeah I'm looking it over now and it looks really good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Syracuse sees about half the snow fulton does, thats the cuttoff right there on the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Yep so the Euro is definitely trending colder in line with the FV3 and I'll say it, the CMC, lol! On the Euro we mix for about 2-4hrs, perhaps a mix rn/ip for a time then right back to snow!.. Cuse see's 6-8" while Fulton and I see close to a foot, lol but I think that continues to drop South with subsequent runs as I think the Euro is now seeing the airmass thats directly to ouyr N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Whats up with the dl'ing limits on this site, WTF? I wanna show a ton of shit but It won't let me anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I'm seriously starting to despise LES events as they only affect a few area's on the regular and I'm not one of them, lol. I got to admit, when I first moved here we got more snow on the regular cause I owned 2 snowmobiles and I haven't owned one since 2015 as there's been no need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Could be some 20" amounts in there given ratios on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I looked over the Euro EPS and they seem to be diminishing snowfall with each successive run while the op is highering them so somethings up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Could be some 20" amounts in there given ratios on the backside.. Dude we need to get that snowline to drop at leasts 25 miles or so and we'd all be happy but thats a nasty snow cutoff because of the amount of warm air so I hope it trends a bit colder the next couple days so we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The ICON which was the worst of them all now looks the best wrt snowfall and temps. Basically all globals now get us into double digit snows with a minimal amount of mixing and with still a couple days left of trending I hope we continue to go in the right direction which is down, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Looks like both Buffalo and Binghamton went with the winter storm watches pretty early in the game for that so they must see something interesting coming.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Our next storm system is currently seen on Water Vapor imagery dropping southward over the northern California coastline. The closed upper level low will dip southward along the California shoreline today, and then advance across the Rockies and Plains early next week. Another shortwave will phase with this low Monday, deepening and negatively tilting the upper level longwave trough. This upper level long wave trough will deepen a surface low that will again cut through the Great Lakes region. Tuesday will start on the cold side with advancing precipitation starting as all snow late Monday night and Tuesday morning. A primary low will pass through the Eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Tuesday night, moderating temperatures to above freezing for most of the area. This will change the snow/possible wintry mix over to plain rain later Tuesday and Tuesday night for much of WNY. A secondary lee side low will form off the Delmarva Peninsula Tuesday night and as this secondary low deepens, the primary surface low to the north of Lake Ontario will begin to weaken. This will limit the northward push of milder air such that precipitation southeast and east of Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night may remain as all snow, or just mix with a few hours of sleet/rain. Here is where confidence is high enough that there will be potential for significant synoptic snows and will issue a winter storm watch starting 11Z Tuesday. Cold air will wrap back across our region later Tuesday night and Wednesday, and change precipitation back over to all snow. The closed upper level low will remain across southern Canada and a persistent flow of moist, westerly flow will likely continue light snow Wednesday, with greatest accumulations across upslope areas...and later in the day lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario. With modest snowfall continuing Wednesday and into Wednesday evening we will continue the winter storm watch through Wednesday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 KBGM basically the same, cold air doesn't make it before the parent LP occludes, lol! A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Oneida, Cayuga, Onondaga, Madison, Cortland, Chenango and Otsego Counties in CNY. Monday night snow moves in from the southwest into the central southern tier and NEPA after midnight, then the rest of the area Tuesday morning. Snowfall rates could be heavy with deep moisture and lift into the dendrite zone. This enhanced rates will be a few hours into the event and well ahead of a warm front. Potential for 3 to 6 inches of snow in south central NY and NEPA before a changeover to sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon. A coating of ice is likely before temperatures warm enough. Further north precipitation will stay snow longer so amounts should be higher. Have issued a winter storm watch for Tuesday and Tuesday night first for 5 to 9 inches of snow followed by around a tenth of an inch of freezing rain. Temperatures north of I88 and east of I81 may not get above freezing until Wednesday morning close to the occluded front. The main low will pass to the west of the area. For temperatures a wide range of temperatures Monday night with single digits in Oneida County to low 20s along the Susquehanna River in NEPA. Tuesday highs from mid 30s west to around 30 far east. Tuesday night lows mid 20s far east to around 30 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Don't ask me how but I just measured five brand new inches in the front of my house in my driveway because the snow has just been falling straight down no wind component at all to the lake effect spray that's coming in off Lake Ontario but nice big fat dendrites keep fallingSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 February can be a very decent month snowfall wise if it keeps going like this because the first event this week should be a pretty much all snow event for the North Country including Oswego County and Onondaga County for that matter then the one after that I do believe that was going to come further east and give us more of a mixed bag as opposed to more liquid so we'll see how that works out but we got to get through this first event. The one thing that certain it's definitely an extremely busy patternSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 It sure is a busy pattern. The second system is looking flatter, so hopefully that continues. Beautiful fluffy flakes falling here as well and covering things nicely with no wind. The Oswego county shoreline must be cashing in very nicely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 31 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Don't ask me how but I just measured five brand new inches in the front of my house in my driveway because the snow has just been falling straight down no wind component at all to the lake effect spray that's coming in off Lake Ontario but nice big fat dendrites keep falling Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I measured 1.4 inches of snow of a density so low you can look through it and see the surface it’s on. The liquid equivalent is 0.03 which gives a ratio of 46.67:1. Like I said last night you can use a leaf blower to clear it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I measured 1.4 inches of snow of a density so low you can look through it and see the surface it’s on. The liquid equivalent is 0.03 which gives a ratio of 46.67:1. Like I said last night you can use a leaf blower to clear it. Almost 50 to one that's just straight nutsSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 30 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I measured 1.4 inches of snow of a density so low you can look through it and see the surface it’s on. The liquid equivalent is 0.03 which gives a ratio of 46.67:1. Like I said last night you can use a leaf blower to clear it. 19 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Almost 50 to one that's just straight nuts Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk The second the sun peeks out that stuff is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Happens alot on south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 A little over 2" of fluff here, nice little morning surprise.. Snowing decent with the sun trying to peek out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Nice event near minetto.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Can we lock this in? I'm moving on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: I measured 1.4 inches of snow of a density so low you can look through it and see the surface it’s on. The liquid equivalent is 0.03 which gives a ratio of 46.67:1. Like I said last night you can use a leaf blower to clear it. The New Englanders call that fake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The New Englanders call that fake snow. They would love to have it this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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