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Upstate/Eastern New York


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It baffles me that we finally get a west flow and the main band is still mostly south of here.

My coworker told me when he first moved here, he used to get all frustrated too...but came to accept this is the nature of Lake effect snow. You never know.

I need to adopt this mindset and get it out of my system. The stress over something trivial is not good for the body. Hopefully next winter is much better.

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19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Bummer. Fakeout!

Maybe you got it and the wind blew it to Brewerton? :P

Could be!  It’s snowing heavily here right now. Unfortunately it looks like the band is settling to the south and I’ll be out of it pretty soon. Eyeballing it it looks like 2-3 inches so far. 

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I hate to say but it seems west wind is a transition zone lol

According to the rose plots it's the least likely wind direction..We are just the passer by for WSW and WNW lol I think a straight west wind happens 3.5% of the time, almost always a northern/southern component to it .

 

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Suprised to see all snow forecasted at the moment :whistle:

Tuesday
Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
Snow. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Wednesday
Snow showers. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday Night
Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%
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Latest high-res
guidance suggests the eastern end of this band will come onshore
across Oswego and Northern Cayuga counties, producing local
accumulating snow. These types of bands often drop their heaviest
snow right near the shoreline given the strong land breeze forcing,
and can have notoriously high snow-water ratios. That said, in the
weak flow environment there is always a good deal of uncertainty as
to whether the heavy snow will fall over the lake or just onshore.

Given this uncertainty, have not raised any additional headlines
yet, but did increase POPS and snow amounts to 3-6 inches in a small
area from Fair Haven to Oswego for tonight. If the heavier portion
of the band stays offshore, amounts will be lower. On the flip side,
if the heaviest portion of the band extends to the shoreline for an
extended period of time, warning criteria amounts are within the
realm of possibility.
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