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Upstate/Eastern New York


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11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Today the strong winds are blowing the best snow just east of here. On and off snow showers. Not impressed at all. There's always something.

The RAP and HRRR are waaaay south with the band.

Yeah best band will likely be a line from Fulton to Syracuse, looks to swing pretty quickly through the tug. Just an overall bad year for the tug. 

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6 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Both 4 and 7 made adjustments for suspected areas of open water and wow! Showing a band over the northtowns around lunch time then intensifying and dropping through the metro for the PM rush... Near Blizzard conditions possible...

e7f5a7b49bf9d6487d608d72d09d5088.jpg
0897c208fab24339606a03f75830281c.jpg

Only thing is neither model picked up the current band over the southtowns. Both just showed one setting up over the northtowns around noon - 1pm. Might as well be forecasting this with a blind fold on. No one has any idea where these open pools are right now and if you don’t know that forget even trying to predict where these bands will be...


.

That bands going to have to show up soon to have those radars verify. 

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Moving on into the last 36 hours of this period...it still appears
that a complex...double-barreled low pressure system will move
through the Great Lakes and Northeast Monday night through Tuesday
night...with an incipient cutter-type low tracking by to our
northwest...and a secondary coastal low developing and tracking
northeastward off the mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines. While
some differences in timing still persist with respect to the arrival
of this system (with the GFS remaining notably more aggressive than
its ECMWF and GEM counterparts Monday night)...it is appearing
increasingly certain that the majority of our region can expect a
round of widespread precipitation Tuesday and Tuesday night...for
which PoPs have been further bumped up into the categorical range.
With respect to ptype...our airmass should initially be cold enough
for mainly snow Monday night and Tuesday morning. An incursion of
warmer air out ahead of the initial primary low should then induce a
mix with and/or changeover to rain for a time later Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday evening...before developing cold air advection in the wake
of this system`s trailing occluded front tips the balance back more
toward snow during the second half of Tuesday night.
When we open this period on Wednesday...a large closed low will be
centered over southern Ontario. As is typically the case with such a
mid level system in this area...there will be the likelihood for
Miller B cyclogenesis to take place along the New England coast. The
vast majority of the medium range ensembles and operational packages
concur with this climatology by depicting a primary surface low in
the vcnty of Lake Huron with a secondary storm taking shape near the
Gulf of Maine. The transference of energy to the coastal storm will
dramatically weaken the primary cyclone to our west...virtually
eliminating the risk for any wind issues as would otherwise be the
concern. This will leave accumulating snow as our primary weather...
with the most problematic amounts being found over the Eastern Lake
Ontario region where some lake enhancement will also come into play.

As the secondary storm chugs across the Canadian maritimes and its
slow moving mid level support exits via the St Lawrence Valley...a
cold west-northwest flow of -12c H50 air will flow across Lake
Ontario. This will likely keep a well defined band of accumulating
lake snows in the vcnty of the Tug Hill/Oswego County...with a much
more muted lake response found east of a nearly completely frozen
over Lake Erie. Otherwise scattered light snow showers will be
possible within the moist cyclonic flow on the backside of the mid
level support.

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Yea very unlucky, even pulaski has had 9" and 12" LES events over the last 10-14 days..

This system is coming is pretty much 2 parts , as we see something from the primary and secondary..

Here is the intial burst on the gfs as we flip over to light rain/drizzle/dryslot..

Probably will have to wait for the meso-models to get into range for any Enhancement on wed..

sn10_024h.us_ne.png

 

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