wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Lake effect/lake enhancement are almost never 10/1.. Kuchera worked well with last event.. U guys need to get over the one event because flake size sucked lmao.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 So what’s the Kuchera on next week’s system for us on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 It wasn't kuchera fault the band went WSW/SW instead of west with last event lol Watertown and other area's picked up those huge amounts.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Wolfie, I was just joking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 I've seen Kuchera ratios work out a few times, only chance is with lake effect. You can never post Kuchera for synoptic events, just doesn't happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I know bro. it may seem like i took it personal but did not lol It's the model's qpf output that gives us false hope, kuchera can only react from there .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I'm going to take my 8in and run and run fastSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 We'll be lucky to get 3in here in southern Oswego county!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Spectrum has the band over us for at least 6-8hrs so we'll see how strong it is as she drops South through the Tug!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I'm down to patches of snow as most is gone and it went real fast with super AN low temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 New map.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 NWS says no headlines will be needed for this event but I beg to differ so we'll see. Theres no way a band producing 1"/hr snows with winds gusting to 50MPH at times not need a heads up. I predict headlines will definitely be needed for snow along with blowing and drifting snow for Friday night through Saturday morning. I will now start to check bufkit and soundings. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 GFS looks good for tues/wed with plenty of enhancement on the backside.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I'm not sure how this is no headlines lol This is for KFZY Friday Night A chance of snow showers before 11pm, then snow after 11pm. Low around 18. Breezy, with a west wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Saturday Snow before 8am, then a chance of snow showers after 8am. High near 23. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is getting interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Wow, I'm serious too, wowzers as the potential does actually exist for someone to cash in for sure! Look at these parameters, seriously?? OMEGA OMEGA OMEGA, yikes and it all intersects beautifully the only small caveat is the sng of course but that should be offset by super steep lapse rates and ample Synoptic moisture! By 15Z its drying out as the Cap lowers and subsidence begins in earnest! MY prediction for this event is Oswego proper Jacks. Winds start off around 275-280 and veer towards 290 slowly and as it hits its furthest point around 285-290 she stays steady state for about 3-6hrs and its during this time that whoever end up under this band will be happy campers come Sat morning and it won't be me or Wolfie but Matt up in Oswego should look out for this one, so good luck to all. Also, Tug Matt you're in a great spot as well I think as you stand the bast chance to see the band the longest so we'll see as with all these events! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Yeah I don't know what their looking at but its something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Decent 10-1 map for next week so we'll see but its definitely trending colder thats one certainty I've been observing as snows becoming the dominant type now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 What is up with the Euro? Looks like a 2-5" event if that, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 The Upper Mid-West is gonna get crushed with storm after storm after storm so good for them I suppose but when will it be our turn for a nice synoptic run, WTF man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: New map.. Bloody Carol... I am going to drive up to her house with a blow torch and melt that 8 to 12 inches around her snowboard. Eh, she'll still somehow measure18 inches... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Wow, I'm serious too, wowzers as the potential does actually exist for someone to cash in for sure! Look at these parameters, seriously?? OMEGA OMEGA OMEGA, yikes and it all intersects beautifully the only small caveat is the sng of course but that should be offset by super steep lapse rates and ample Synoptic moisture! By 15Z its drying out as the Cap lowers and subsidence begins in earnest! MY prediction for this event is Oswego proper Jacks. Winds start off around 275-280 and veer towards 290 slowly and as it hits its furthest point around 285-290 she stays steady state for about 3-6hrs and its during this time that whoever end up under this band will be happy campers come Sat morning and it won't be me or Wolfie but Matt up in Oswego should look out for this one, so good luck to all. Also, Tug Matt you're in a great spot as well I think as you stand the bast chance to see the band the longest so we'll see as with all these events! Eh, I don't know. 18Z runs appear to have it sweeping through here only to stall just off to the south in Oneida county. I am shocked............................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Looks like temps are already in the lower 30s out in Western areas. Did you guys manage to get some flakes in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 KBGM map. Microbullseye over Baldwinsville about 3 miles from here. Close enough, if it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 33 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Looks like temps are already in the lower 30s out in Western areas. Did you guys manage to get some flakes in there? Out this way? Hovered in the low 30s most of the day with some freezing drizzle. Once the rain moved in we bumped up to the mid 30s and now with the southerly down slope wind firing up we are climbing the temperature roller coaster to almost 60 in the next few hours. All that to see it crash back into the 20s by sunrise with some flurries. Gotta love upstate weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Out this way? Hovered in the low 30s most of the day with some freezing drizzle. Once the rain moved in we bumped up to the mid 30s and now with the southerly down slope wind firing up we are climbing the temperature roller coaster to almost 60 in the next few hours. All that to see it crash back into the 20s by sunrise with some flurries. Gotta love upstate weather. I've gone from 39 to 54 from 7pm till now. That's 15 degrees in an hour and 15 minutes! Meanwhile 11 miles to my north it's only 35 degrees so almost a 20 degree difference in 11 miles, the downslope is real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 38 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Out this way? Hovered in the low 30s most of the day with some freezing drizzle. Once the rain moved in we bumped up to the mid 30s and now with the southerly down slope wind firing up we are climbing the temperature roller coaster to almost 60 in the next few hours. All that to see it crash back into the 20s by sunrise with some flurries. Gotta love upstate weather. Wow...that's rare for that area to be colder than up here on the Tug for most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Wow...that's rare for that area to be colder than up here on the Tug for most of the day.Northeast winds will do that. Crazy how fast the temps are rocketing! Look at that difference north side of the city compared to the south side!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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