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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted

Great AFD: 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The mid-week mess maker will be moving east of the area by early
Thursday, leaving us in the relative foul weather nadir for the
week. This occurs as we fully enter the warm sector of a low that
will be rapidly spinning up to our west. This means warm advection
again holds sway and as 850 mb temperatures approach +10C, even with
sub-optimal mixing profiles during the diurnally favorable period,
much of the area should again return into the 50s.

A fantastically strong cold front looks to follow the warm Thursday
across the area Thursday night into early Friday. Fall off of about
25C at 850 mb can be noted across this front between here and lower
Michigan as it approaches. This represents a veritable wall of a
density discontinuity, and it indicates that forcing for ascent
along the front itself should be very impressive. If we combine this
with the presence of a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, steep lapse
rates above the 0C isotherm, and solidly negative theta-e lapse
rates from 850 up toward 500 mb, it would seem a rumble or two of
thunder would also be possible along the front. This is unusual for
February, but the low CAPE/high shear environment really is not.
Further, the deep dive of the dynamic tropopause to below 700 mb on
the ECMWF in the wake of the front yields further confidence in
impressive lift along the front.

Another implication of the suppression of the tropopause and the
presence of the 2 PVU surface below 700 mb will be the propensity
for solid mixing in the dry slot behind the frontal passage. The NAM
and GFS both feature 50-60 kts at 850 immediately post-frontal.
Soundings don`t favor the best mixing until daytime Friday in the
post-frontal air mass, however, which would already be beyond the
time when the best tropopause undulation has moved by. Nevertheless,
a period of high winds seems likely overnight Thursday night into
Friday. The favored areas on WSW flow east of Lake Erie and Ontario,
including the Buffalo/Niagara Falls area, would likely see gusts of
50 to 55 mph in this set up even as it stands now. High end
advisories from KBUF to KROC look very plausible...with at least a
chance for warning criteria winds. Climatologically (rapidly
deepening cyclone passing to northwest and strong post frontal
subsidence)...this event is looking more and more threatening. Stay
tuned.
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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Small window for some lake effect Friday afternoon/evening.. 

Rapidly colder air builds into the area through the end of the week
as flow becomes more westerly and west-northwesterly. This will
result in deepening inversion heights over the lower Great Lakes. As
such, lake effect snow showers will be developing by that juncture,
especially east of the fully open Lake Ontario.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_48.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49.png

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Small window for some lake effect Friday afternoon/evening.. 


Rapidly colder air builds into the area through the end of the week
as flow becomes more westerly and west-northwesterly. This will
result in deepening inversion heights over the lower Great Lakes. As
such, lake effect snow showers will be developing by that juncture,
especially east of the fully open Lake Ontario.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_48.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49.png

Yeah, I have been watching that. Let's just hope it doesn't quickly sweep through the west wind stage in like an hour...

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
A soaking rain will arrive by afternoon, if not a bit sooner,
then spread quickly east across the remainder of the area
through Thursday night. There will be enough forcing into the
area to support a period of possible thunderstorms Thursday
night, and perhaps heavy rain. The rainfall associated with
this system will need to be monitored very closely as this
could be a significant rainfall event with amounts potentially
nearing an inch. Rainfall amounts of this magnitude could
certainly bring renewed hydrologic concerns, especially
considering the several ice jams which are currently in place
on some of the Buffalo area creeks.

The system dry slot will punch through the region late Thursday
night into Friday, as the low pressure center continues to
deepen as it lifts through Ontario into Quebec, forcing a
powerful cold front through the area. This will bring a quick
end to the precipitation as the cold front swings through. Cold
air will rapidly rush into the area in wake of the front, with
temperatures dropping into the 20s through the day Friday. There
will be the potential for a flash freeze given wet surfaces
from all the preceding rain.

In addition, an increasing pressure gradient coupled with drier air
and cold air advection into the region will likely result in a
period of strong gusty winds. The potential for the strongest
wind gusts look to be in the typically favored west-southwest
flow areas northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario, including the
Buffalo/Niagara Falls area over to Rochester. Momentum transfer
profiles suggesting these areas will likely see gusts of 50 to
55 mph, perhaps even higher. Wind headlines will need to be
considered as the event nears.

The incoming colder air will allow for a brief lake response later
Friday into Friday night, this will especially be the case east
and southeast of a fully open Lake Ontario. A few inches of
snowfall is not out of the question.

 

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