TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I sense another underperformer for the Southern Tug. Today's "event" and the end of the week. Maybe I will get a foot by the end of the week. I hate this winter. Oh, and the NAM 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: The radar over western Lake Erie out of Cleveland looks fantastic. Bands are rapidly blossoming indicative of at least a good amount of open water. This one has the feeling of a double whopper with cheese ala 85, Nov 2000, Dec 2010, Jan 14. I think biggest fear would be the fact everyone went to school and work today under the impression it wouldn’t get bad until 4-5 tonight. What if that band locks in over downtown all day and starts intensifying later in the afternoon. Talk about a Nov 2000 that turns into a full in blizzard the following day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 This is a long duration event. Doesn’t end until friday. Heaviest is tonight into thurs morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Pulsating here between heavy and lighter snow. Actually pretty cool when the sun peeks out with giant dendrites pouring down. Here's a shot during a heavy cell a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Yeah this event wasn’t supposed to get cranking until 5-6pm. The fact that radar looks like this, this early is very surprising and impressive. Maybe the lake has enough in her for a proper send off for the season. Wow! It’s still January!?!? Who’s talking send off? Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 This is gonna be epic for BUF. Hi Res pretty much all top out over the city. As usual, sharp cutoffs, but someone’s getting 2 feet easy. TUG feels a bit squishy right now. Not sure what voodoo was put on you guys. Upslope should be good for some snow. Probably 12x was Kroc is in for. So count your blessings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Wind is starting to pick up here now. Vis dropping down to couple hundred feet in gusts and heavy squalls. Pushing 2" since 8 AM. Accurate measuring is gonna be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: This is gonna be epic for BUF. Hi Res pretty much all top out over the city. As usual, sharp cutoffs, but someone’s getting 2 feet easy. TUG feels a bit squishy right now. Not sure what voodoo was put on you guys. Upslope should be good for some snow. Probably 12x was Kroc is in for. So count your blessings. Maybe I set my expectations too high? It has been more and more difficult for me to contain my frustration, as it has been one let down after another. I really do apologize for my negativity, friends...in the "real world" people wouldn't understand the frustration with missing a band of LES. LES has SUCKED here this winter....and now today's system that was set to give us upslope is too east. Excited for you Buffalo guys though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Maybe I set my expectations too high? It has been more and more difficult for me to contain my frustration, as it has been one let down after another. I really do apologize for my negativity, friends...in the "real world" people wouldn't understand the frustration with missing a band of LES. LES has SUCKED here this winter....and now today's system that was set to give us upslope is too east. Excited for you Buffalo guys though! We have to have patience lol I Know it's hard, just waiting for the other shoe to drop lol I like overnight we'd in Thursday as the time frame we start to hopefully cash in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Rochester under lake snow advisory now. Band goin to have legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 In extreme cases I have seen roc under warnings from lake Erie and Wayne county under advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Rochester under lake snow advisory now. Band goin to have legs. Yeah, I thought it looked fishy to have a WSW stop right before Monroe Cty. with no advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 55 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s still January!?!? Who’s talking send off? Lmao Send off for lake effect lol, by this weekend the lake will likely be completely iced over with temperatures for days between -10 and +5. Then it’s pretty much Synoptic only season which if we can manage 2’ with this event we’ll already be close to seasonal snowfall of about 100”... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Wow that band is absolutely cranking and consolidating right over the northtowns. From the north side of the city to Tonawanda and N. Amherst are getting raked!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 Band is intensifying, SSW wind. Looks fantastic. Can see the winds changing directions off Michigan to more wsw. Band shouldn’t move too much over the next 5-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 37 minutes ago, tim123 said: Rochester under lake snow advisory now. Band goin to have legs. Sureeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 30 minutes ago, tim123 said: In extreme cases I have seen roc under warnings from lake Erie and Wayne county under advisory. Yeah, and it has never once verified. This is something I stand very firmly on, especially being a west side of the county observer. I'd take an inch though, we are desperate in this shit pattern. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Meant to type something up last night… but I guess this will have to do. I’ve been away from the LES action for a little bit so take it with a grain of salt. I’m fully on board for a pretty significant event for BUF and for a large portion of Watertown/Tug Hill through Friday. I still think that ice chart that was posted the other day is fairly inaccurate. Based on the few pieces of the lake we can see right now, it seems to be more open than that map or the one from the National Ice Center seems to suggest. Off Erie… Lake effect has already developed a little quicker than expected right now, and an intense singular band appears to be organizing. This isn’t terribly unsurprising, given the 850mb front just passed over Lake Erie and winds are beginning to become better aligned. As temperatures continue to crash and boundary layer winds slacken a little bit through the afternoon, I see no reason that additional organization should continue throughout the day. Boundary layer winds are fairly unidirectional at about around 240°, which should put BUF in or just south the heart of LES through the day. While Lake-induced equilibrium heights only hover around 6-10kft the boundary layer does deepen significantly through the day. We also have fairly good snow growth potential today, as the DGZ still is within the cloud layer through at least the early overnight hours and also evidenced by some recent observations of dendrites falling in the heavier portions of the band. Overnight, temperatures continue to fall and the boundary layer deepens to at least 700mb, as EL’s grow to 10-13kft, with LI CAPE profiles >1000J/kg. Boundary layer winds are very well aligned, though gradually shift from 240-250°. With the dendritic growth zone gradually be pushed down to the surface, it’s hard to expect extremely high ratio snow to continue, though there is just enough lift off the surface that there should be at least some snow growth to work with. Additionally, soundings suggest the potential for rather strong surface winds >20kts, which, combined with finer flakes and already significant accumulations, should lead to blizzard or near blizzard conditions. If LES develops as expected, I would not be surprised to see blizzard warnings for the BUF metro, especially if this continues into the rush hour traffic on Wednesday morning. Same story continues Wednesday as lake-effect gradually slides south of the metro and towards southern Erie/northern Chautauqua/northern Wyoming/Genesee counties. Most of Wednesday looks to be heavy snow… though with variation in the overall band orientation should limit totals. There should still be a well organized, heavy lake-effect band as boundary layer depths reach about 650mb with 1500J/kg LI CAPE and ELs approaching 15kft. If some of the areas hit today/tonight can get into the action again, I could see totals approaching 30-36” (that’s not my actual forecast). Wednesday night through Thursday EL’s gradually decrease and boundary layer depth also decreases a bit as the best cold air move out of the area, with the same general areas seeing additional accumulating snow. I do still have a few concerns that could limit this from being one of the “big ones”. How does limited snow growth potential limit snowfall rates? How do relatively strong boundary layer winds affect lake effect organization (and again), snowfall rates? While both of these factors are likely to increase the blizzard potential from the event, it may limit overall totals, especially in the latter half of the event. Another question I have is if this band can manage to impact Rochester as well - I have them in lower totals right now but I could see 6" amounts if things line up perfectly. Off Ontario… As the low-level cold front has yet to make the trek across Lake Ontario, we have obviously yet to see any significant development downwind of Ontario. Guidance suggests that this should change by the overnight hours as the arctic front sweeps eastward this afternoon/overnight. The models aren’t explicitly showing this, but it looks like there’s some fairly good potential along the front for some heavy squalls, especially east of I-81 as steep lapse rates and additional upslope may provide a quick burst, leading to some minor accumulations. Lake-effect should gradually develop overnight tonight, though there is quite a bit of shear near the top of the boundary layer initially tonight. I think there’s also potential for the Erie band to feed into Lake Ontario overnight, though getting the flow perfectly aligned for that setup is a little more complicated to predict. Either way, lake-effect should first develop near/north of Watertown with 240° winds through the morning hours on Wednesday. Winds very slowly shift a little bit further south through the afternoon Wednesday, with very well-aligned flow and deep moisture suggesting >2-3”/hr. rates seem likely at times, especially if the Erie-Ontario connection can happen. A mid-level shortwave moves through the area Wednesday evening, which will briefly disrupt the flow to become more westerly, similarly to Lake Erie (albeit a few hours earlier). This should shove the band down towards the Tug Hill for at least a brief period Wednesday evening/overnight. Forecast gets a little bit more complicated as a little bit of shear through the boundary layer makes it a bit tougher to guess the exact position of the band through Wednesday night. BUFKIT suggests this setups up somewhere between Redfield and perhaps just south of Watertown. Previous experience leads me to guess southern Jefferson/northern Lewis counties with a 260° wind, where a 270 wind seems to be more of the Oswego/Jefferson county line. Winds will again gradually shift towards the WNW from Thursday morning into Friday, though inversion heights decrease and moisture becomes a little bit harder to get. However, EL’s of 6-10kft should be plenty to generate heavy snow. Snow growth potential looks a little bit better of Ontario, as I assume the lake surface is at least slightly warmer than Erie, and I’d almost assume its closer to 37-39F, and there seems to be at least a shallow DGZ near the surface through most of the event. Some of the soundings the NAM and 3km NAM spit out are rather incredible, but we’ll have to see how they play out. The same concerns I have off Lake Erie are concerns for Ontario as well, but I think Ontario is primed for likely it’s biggest event of the season. Map below, but for Erie: KBUF: 20” Dunkirk: 18” Hamburg: 29” Batavia: 16” Feel free to ask any other thoughts. Since I’m in the icebox that is Iowa, I have a decent amount of free time over the next couple days. Edit: Uploaded the old map from last night, new one attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Wow that band is absolutely cranking and consolidating right over the northtowns. From the north side of the city to Tonawanda and N. Amherst are getting raked!! Heavy snow here, very impressive flake size too so it's piling up nicely. Closing in on our 4" forecast total for the day already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 26 minutes ago, vortmax said: Yeah, I thought it looked fishy to have a WSW stop right before Monroe Cty. with no advisory. There is a significant elevation drop from Genessee county into Monroe. That little downslope just annihilates the Erie band right as it enter Monroe. I've watched it happen 20 times over the past 15 years. We've been known to scrape out a couple inches which would be more than enough to keep me happy... Even snow in the air would be better than the nothing we've gotten the last week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Wow that band is absolutely cranking and consolidating right over the northtowns. From the north side of the city to Tonawanda and N. Amherst are getting raked!! So far this is the kind of Northtowns crusher I've been hoping for. Fingers crossed that the band has residence in the area through the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah, and it has never once verified. This is something I stand very firmly on, especially being a west side of the county observer. I'd take an inch though, we are desperate in this shit pattern. haha Delta, I love your style! 100% bro. NWS pulls this sh.t every season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah, and it has never once verified. This is something I stand very firmly on, especially being a west side of the county observer. I'd take an inch though, we are desperate in this shit pattern. haha It sure has verified before. I have got 3 4 inches in walworth from Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: Meant to type something up last night… but I guess this will have to do. I’ve been away from the LES action for a little bit so take it with a grain of salt. I’m fully on board for a pretty significant event for BUF and for a large portion of Watertown/Tug Hill through Friday. I still think that ice chart that was posted the other day is fairly inaccurate. Based on the few pieces of the lake we can see right now, it seems to be more open than that map or the one from the National Ice Center seems to suggest. Off Erie… Lake effect has already developed a little quicker than expected right now, and an intense singular band appears to be organizing. This isn’t terribly unsurprising, given the 850mb front just passed over Lake Erie and winds are beginning to become better aligned. As temperatures continue to crash and boundary layer winds slacken a little bit through the afternoon, I see no reason that additional organization should continue throughout the day. Boundary layer winds are fairly unidirectional at about around 240°, which should put BUF in or just south the heart of LES through the day. While Lake-induced equilibrium heights only hover around 6-10kft the boundary layer does deepen significantly through the day. We also have fairly good snow growth potential today, as the DGZ still is within the cloud layer through at least the early overnight hours and also evidenced by some recent observations of dendrites falling in the heavier portions of the band. Overnight, temperatures continue to fall and the boundary layer deepens to at least 700mb, as EL’s grow to 10-13kft, with LI CAPE profiles >1000J/kg. Boundary layer winds are very well aligned, though gradually shift from 240-250°. With the dendritic growth zone gradually be pushed down to the surface, it’s hard to expect extremely high ratio snow to continue, though there is just enough lift off the surface that there should be at least some snow growth to work with. Additionally, soundings suggest the potential for rather strong surface winds >20kts, which, combined with finer flakes and already significant accumulations, should lead to blizzard or near blizzard conditions. If LES develops as expected, I would not be surprised to see blizzard warnings for the BUF metro, especially if this continues into the rush hour traffic on Wednesday morning. Same story continues Wednesday as lake-effect gradually slides south of the metro and towards southern Erie/northern Chautauqua/northern Wyoming/Genesee counties. Most of Wednesday looks to be heavy snow… though with variation in the overall band orientation should limit totals. There should still be a well organized, heavy lake-effect band as boundary layer depths reach about 650mb with 1500J/kg LI CAPE and ELs approaching 15kft. If some of the areas hit today/tonight can get into the action again, I could see totals approaching 30-36” (that’s not my actual forecast). Wednesday night through Thursday EL’s gradually decrease and boundary layer depth also decreases a bit as the best cold air move out of the area, with the same general areas seeing additional accumulating snow. I do still have a few concerns that could limit this from being one of the “big ones”. How does limited snow growth potential limit snowfall rates? How do relatively strong boundary layer winds affect lake effect organization (and again), snowfall rates? While both of these factors are likely to increase the blizzard potential from the event, it may limit overall totals, especially in the latter half of the event. Another question I have is if this band can manage to impact Rochester as well - I have them in lower totals right now but I could see 6-12" amounts if things line up perfectly. Off Ontario… As the low-level cold front has yet to make the trek across Lake Ontario, we have obviously yet to see any significant development downwind of Ontario. Guidance suggests that this should change by the overnight hours as the arctic front sweeps eastward this afternoon/overnight. The models aren’t explicitly showing this, but it looks like there’s some fairly good potential along the front for some heavy squalls, especially east of I-81 as steep lapse rates and additional upslope may provide a quick burst, leading to some minor accumulations. Lake-effect should gradually develop overnight tonight, though there is quite a bit of shear near the top of the boundary layer initially tonight. I think there’s also potential for the Erie band to feed into Lake Ontario overnight, though getting the flow perfectly aligned for that setup is a little more complicated to predict. Either way, lake-effect should first develop near/north of Watertown with 240° winds through the morning hours on Wednesday. Winds very slowly shift a little bit further south through the afternoon Wednesday, with very well-aligned flow and deep moisture suggesting >2-3”/hr. rates seem likely at times, especially if the Erie-Ontario connection can happen. A mid-level shortwave moves through the area Wednesday evening, which will briefly disrupt the flow to become more westerly, similarly to Lake Erie (albeit a few hours earlier). This should shove the band down towards the Tug Hill for at least a brief period Wednesday evening/overnight. Forecast gets a little bit more complicated as a little bit of shear through the boundary layer makes it a bit tougher to guess the exact position of the band through Wednesday night. BUFKIT suggests this setups up somewhere between Redfield and perhaps just south of Watertown. Previous experience leads me to guess southern Jefferson/northern Lewis counties with a 260° wind, where a 270 wind seems to be more of the Oswego/Jefferson county line. Winds will again gradually shift towards the WNW from Thursday morning into Friday, though inversion heights decrease and moisture becomes a little bit harder to get. However, EL’s of 6-10kft should be plenty to generate heavy snow. Snow growth potential looks a little bit better of Ontario, as I assume the lake surface is at least slightly warmer than Erie, and I’d almost assume its closer to 37-39F, and there seems to be at least a shallow DGZ near the surface through most of the event. Some of the soundings the NAM and 3km NAM spit out are rather incredible, but we’ll have to see how they play out. The same concerns I have off Lake Erie are concerns for Ontario as well, but I think Ontario is primed for likely it’s biggest event of the season. Map below, but for Erie: KBUF: 20” Dunkirk: 18” Hamburg: 29” Batavia: 16” Feel free to ask any other thoughts. Since I’m in the icebox that is Iowa, I have a decent amount of free time over the next couple days. Wow, this is fantastic, Thank You! Can you post your map for Erie? Also, what are your thoughts on the lake ice increasing on Erie during tomorrow and Thursday? Any possible thunder in the bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The key is background moisture. And wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Author Share Posted January 29, 2019 ...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL ERIE...EASTERN NIAGARA AND SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS COUNTIES... At 1052 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow was producing snow fall rates of up to 2 inches per hour along a line extending from just north of Downtown Buffalo, through North Buffalo, Amherst, and out toward Middleport. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect snow, which will cause widespread blowing and drifting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: Meant to type something up last night… but I guess this will have to do. I’ve been away from the LES action for a little bit so take it with a grain of salt. Awesome write up, thanks for taking the time to do this! Stay warm in the ice box... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I feel left out man, Nothing but flurries out here in Cheektowaga.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 or 4 fluffy inches, over hours and hours, does not really justify headlines. Who knows, airport is west side so we can see if this nonsense verifies. I feel guilty taking up bandwidth on this as our BUF tards are getting their storm of the year (decade?). That band sure consolidated and means business- waaay sooner than anticipated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: It sure has verified before. I have got 3 4 inches in walworth from Erie. Maybe the elevation from Erie to Walworth isn't as much of a factor vs. more SW from Erie to Chili? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.