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Upstate/Eastern New York


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52 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Storms 2 and 3 are anafrontal nonsense. I guess we could get lucky on one of them. Did I mention how much I hate this winter? Better than 50/50 odds it pours for both of them. Right now, February looks like more of the same- progressive as Hell. Everything just slides along. Pushed by El Niño driving jets. 

Yup. No solid blocking in Canada whatsoever, and a SE ridge that keeps pushing back. We need a deep east coast low to work its way due north and stall out over the North Atlantic....and create a new block. Or....a pressure system to sit over Hudson Bay and pump cold air and clippers across the Great Lakes.

This winter has been absent of both.

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1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

Notice how close we are to the baroclinic zone at 850. All we would need is for it to set up a couple hundred miles to the south and we would be in business. We are actually normal to slightly below with 2 meter temperatures which would be around 30 this time of year. 

Yeah, when you look at the 12Z runs, they are showing us right in the zone. At this point, it could spell an ice event. Just a tad north and it's rain. Just a tad south and it is snow. But barely south because then we will get nothing. Lol

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7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, when you look at the 12Z runs, they are showing us right in the zone. At this point, it could spell an ice event. Just a tad north and it's rain. Just a tad south and it is snow. But barely south because then we will get nothing. Lol

Ya, watch it end up rain at 35 degrees, the worst possible weather except maybe ice. 

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9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

This is the kinds of Winter it has been lol

Can't even snow with a more favorable track..

CNY may be the worst spot for synoptic snowstorms lol

Warm air shoots up into cny so easy..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

Look how over about 50 miles over Oswego and Onondaga counties it goes from snow to freezing rain to rain, lol. 

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You know it's been a tough winter when wolfie starts going dark. :P

Just checked out the New England forum and there are some in there that haven't even hit 10 inches for the winter.

I really have a sense from looking at the setup this week that ice may be an issue. Obviously hoping the zone sets farther south so we can get an inch of snow....

 

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The long range Euro has been absolutely terrible. I kept posting the Euro weeklies for months in Nov/Dec/Jan and they never happened. The GEFS show above normal temps throughout its entire run, some really high temps in there too. The EPS is around normal to slightly below. They are polar opposites right now. I'd lean toward a gradient pattern with it setting up shop somewhere along the GL and around normal temps which should lead to some decent snowfall around here synoptically.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The long range Euro has been absolutely terrible. I kept posting the Euro weeklies for months in Nov/Dec/Jan and they never happened. The GEFS show above normal temps throughout its entire run, some really high temps in there too. The EPS is around normal to slightly below. They are polar opposites right now. I'd lean toward a gradient pattern with it setting up shop somewhere along the GL and around normal temps which should lead to some decent snowfall around here synoptically.

Yep, its gambling time and personally by February and March I enjoy this type of pattern more. December and January I enjoy snow packs, long duration cold outbreaks. But our climate doesn't support long lasting cold and snow cover by February and especially March so I hope we have a day in the 40s followed by big snowstorm, back to 40s. rinse and repeat 

If by April 1st we could jump to every day sunny and 80 I would love that haha 

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Often these gradient patterns are flatter and more lateral-based. But this one is really getting pushed up by the southeast ridge. There are tropical-like lows popping up off the southeast coast not allowing the pattern to get squashed a bit.

I really don't know how I feel about this pattern. It is certainly active. It could REALLY suck if we are on the wrong side and get rain storms. But if it gets far enough south we could be looking at snow events in a row.

I certainly hope it goes farther south so many in the northern states can enjoy winter.

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