BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 59 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Long range looks anything but torch...goes back to below average by this weekend and signs that mid February the PV is back in. If anything no pattern that sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 We almost never get cold air here with - PNA. Mid month should turn colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 52 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Storms 2 and 3 are anafrontal nonsense. I guess we could get lucky on one of them. Did I mention how much I hate this winter? Better than 50/50 odds it pours for both of them. Right now, February looks like more of the same- progressive as Hell. Everything just slides along. Pushed by El Niño driving jets. Yup. No solid blocking in Canada whatsoever, and a SE ridge that keeps pushing back. We need a deep east coast low to work its way due north and stall out over the North Atlantic....and create a new block. Or....a pressure system to sit over Hudson Bay and pump cold air and clippers across the Great Lakes. This winter has been absent of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: Notice how close we are to the baroclinic zone at 850. All we would need is for it to set up a couple hundred miles to the south and we would be in business. We are actually normal to slightly below with 2 meter temperatures which would be around 30 this time of year. Yeah, when you look at the 12Z runs, they are showing us right in the zone. At this point, it could spell an ice event. Just a tad north and it's rain. Just a tad south and it is snow. But barely south because then we will get nothing. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, when you look at the 12Z runs, they are showing us right in the zone. At this point, it could spell an ice event. Just a tad north and it's rain. Just a tad south and it is snow. But barely south because then we will get nothing. Lol Ya, watch it end up rain at 35 degrees, the worst possible weather except maybe ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 This is the kinds of Winter it has been lol Can't even snow with a more favorable track.. CNY may be the worst spot for synoptic snowstorms lol Warm air shoots up into cny so easy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is the kinds of Winter it has been lol Can't even snow with a more favorable track.. CNY may be the worst spot for synoptic snowstorms lol Warm air shoots up into cny so easy.. Look how over about 50 miles over Oswego and Onondaga counties it goes from snow to freezing rain to rain, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 What I was talking about last week. Ice storm possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 You know it's been a tough winter when wolfie starts going dark. Just checked out the New England forum and there are some in there that haven't even hit 10 inches for the winter. I really have a sense from looking at the setup this week that ice may be an issue. Obviously hoping the zone sets farther south so we can get an inch of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Euro hanging on to a plains runner. Any further northwest and it’s a rocky runner. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Below normal temperatures, above normal precipitation and we only end up with near normal snowfall in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Man, I got back home to my “snow pack” and I could only wonder what went wrong. Man, that would be tough after what you just experienced. How much at your home in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Euro hanging on to a plains runner. Any further northwest and it’s a rocky runner. Lol Ridiculous winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Freezing drizzle now covering the Tug. I have observed this seems to be the first sign of these thaws coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Winter is far from over.. Never is the first week of February in upstate NY lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 That looks good for much of the northeast north of the Mason Dixon Line. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 We skied Plattekill yesterday. 10/10 snow conditions with deep blue sky and sun most of the day. Holding out hope for Bolton/Stowe later this week. So close to a broken neck this morning. Just a few hundredths of frozen drizzle, invisible on our stone walkway......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Boy oh boy....the next couple weeks not looking good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Who cares seriously. It's not even salvageable anymore, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Who cares seriously. It's not even salvageable anymore, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Agreed. Keep hearing Mets say mid February...its long were being catfished at this point...theres cold and snowy weather out there but we'll never see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 The long range Euro has been absolutely terrible. I kept posting the Euro weeklies for months in Nov/Dec/Jan and they never happened. The GEFS show above normal temps throughout its entire run, some really high temps in there too. The EPS is around normal to slightly below. They are polar opposites right now. I'd lean toward a gradient pattern with it setting up shop somewhere along the GL and around normal temps which should lead to some decent snowfall around here synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Agreed. Keep hearing Mets say mid February...its long were being catfished at this point...theres cold and snowy weather out there but we'll never see it! Well Buffalo just had its 4th snowiest January on record, the last 2 weeks have been incredible around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: The long range Euro has been absolutely terrible. I kept posting the Euro weeklies for months in Nov/Dec/Jan and they never happened. The GEFS show above normal temps throughout its entire run, some really high temps in there too. The EPS is around normal to slightly below. They are polar opposites right now. I'd lean toward a gradient pattern with it setting up shop somewhere along the GL and around normal temps which should lead to some decent snowfall around here synoptically. Yep, its gambling time and personally by February and March I enjoy this type of pattern more. December and January I enjoy snow packs, long duration cold outbreaks. But our climate doesn't support long lasting cold and snow cover by February and especially March so I hope we have a day in the 40s followed by big snowstorm, back to 40s. rinse and repeat If by April 1st we could jump to every day sunny and 80 I would love that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Keep hope alive, lol. Just remember VD has been a good date around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Often these gradient patterns are flatter and more lateral-based. But this one is really getting pushed up by the southeast ridge. There are tropical-like lows popping up off the southeast coast not allowing the pattern to get squashed a bit. I really don't know how I feel about this pattern. It is certainly active. It could REALLY suck if we are on the wrong side and get rain storms. But if it gets far enough south we could be looking at snow events in a row. I certainly hope it goes farther south so many in the northern states can enjoy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Well. It sure looks like end of week system is wet. Unfortunately, I think it’s that one that sets the bar. Could be a very wet Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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