wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Mean Wind flow goes NW/WNW in Feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Yeah I was just gonna say that, Feb and March are our best times down here for a blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I'm pretty confident we see a 20-30" event some time in Feb but it'll be a long drawn out event, as thats how they occur, usually following a nice Synoptic event that stalls over VT and NH and slowly heads ENE from there and takes 3 days to do so, so its safe to say I'm waiting for one of those to happen as we usually get 1/ yr avg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 _NAO is nearing so that means blocking so we'll see what happens during the 2nd week of Feb through March as that's when I think we make up for a horrific January, wait December and January, lol, and if we didn't get that freak event in Nov we'd be in big big trouble right now around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 And I doubt the next intrusion of Arctic will be a reach around as I think we go back to normally getting AF's that come barreling through from the North or NW not SW, especially in January but its quite common in November, thats why so many blockbusters happen in November and early Jan in and around KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 A few videos from the event. One from Westerly. Not sure why it makes my videos not widescreen? Any idea? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 That northern band is about to lock in right over the metro and SB out to just south of the airport. Don’t see why this couldn’t lock in for hours. Both bands looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 Few pics Driving home from work earlier New York State Thruway Visibility during walk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 15.2" storm total so far here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: And I doubt the next intrusion of Arctic will be a reach around as I think we go back to normally getting AF's that come barreling through from the North or NW not SW, especially in January but its quite common in November, thats why so many blockbusters happen in November and early Jan in and around KBUF. You know the climate for Oswego county more than I do...hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 A run down of tonight's meso-models.. Going to be a close one matt, all about watching the radar tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 All I see is the band moving farther and farther north. Winds aren't going to be shifting that much to push it this far south. I will be surprised if we even see a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 West Seneca sure is making up ground! How much WesterlyWx? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 FV3 is so much colder for the northeast next week. It only shows a day or two of warmth. I guess my ski vacation depends on it being right and the other 5 being wrong.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 That band looks beautiful north of Watertown. Looks like it is starting to jog south over the lake. Jefferson county is getting clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: North of town is getting obliterated. I’d love to see totals up there. Even in the lighter returns here I’m observing blizzard conditions with high wind gusts and visibility below 1/4 SM. Easily some of the most intense stuff I’ve seen yet. If/when that band drops it’s going to be extraordinary. I think. Patience. It's going to take its time, but it'll be worth it. Might be best off to grab some sleep now while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Band over Ontario starting to become more W-E oriented! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 IDK. I hate to put salt, but I’m not seeing any signs of the band sinking into the southern TUG. Another scenario where Carol sees boat loads of snow while Redfield south just gets brushed (at best).. The ARW still shows huge accumulation in the south but let’s be honest, it’s been showing that over and over and has been consistently wrong. The Canadian and NMM have had better handles and don’t suffer from this ‘southern ‘ bias. I really can’t recall another time where the southern Tug has been so left out. Im starting to think the best way to forecast these plumes is to strictly observe the upstream orientations and discount modeled expectations. With the last two storms, it became apparent, by looking at placement of Erie bands, that the forecast was simply too far south. And by a solid 20-40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Thundersnow reported by Channel 9 Syracuse, around Adams Center, around 5:15am. Barnes Corners must be getting walloped with 3-5" rates, I'd presume.... The band will settle a few more miles south, then shift north after 12-14z.....then slowly back south (a bit further into central Oswego Co. by late evening/ overnight.)...and then contract back to the lake by Friday morning. I think 3+ feet, 5 miles either side of a line from Adams Center to Montague, is very likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 There you Go Matt, Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 The band is JUST to my north. Shoot...me...now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Another 1.3” overnight. 12.5” storm total.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The band is JUST to my north. Shoot...me...now. Are you serious? Where in God's name are you exactly so I know! I thought you were right there where the tri-counties come together? Guess I was wrong, my bad as I thought you were in a completely diff location! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Are you serious? Where in God's name are you exactly so I know! I thought you were right there where the tri-counties come together? Guess I was wrong, my bad as I thought you were in a completely diff location! I am in Southern Redfield, between Redfield and Osceola...right on the Lewis County line. Great for upsloping...and so far AWFUL for LES. I can literally see the sun just off to my south, while I sir under a cloud bank with not one flake. If the band drifted less than a mile south I would be pound town city. So painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I just saw one big flake. There is hope. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 That sucks, Big Time and I googled your location so I know exactly where it is now. Not looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I am in Southern Redfield, between Redfield and Osceola...right on the Lewis County line. Great for upsloping...and so far AWFUL for LES. I can literally see the sun just off to my south, while I sir under a cloud bank with not one flake. If the band drifted less than a mile south I would be pound town city. So painful. Many times, when a band is moving (in this case it drifted south), the heaviest snows will be located on the edge, where the convergence zone is, opposite of motion with respect to the radar depiction. (In this case, on the northern 1/3 of the radar returns) sometimes, you will see high reflectivities over your head (800-1200 feet) but the flakes at that level are being drawn into the convergence zone (in this case, just to your north!!) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Its times like these that are just maddening to me as you just sit there and watch the radar and look out the window, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: Many times, when a band is moving (in this case it drifted south), the heaviest snows will be located on the edge, where the convergence zone is, opposite of motion with respect to the radar depiction. (In this case, on the northern 1/3 of the radar returns) sometimes, you will see high reflectivities over your head (800-1200 feet) but the flakes at that level are being drawn into the convergence zone (in this case, just to your north!!) Thanks for the info. Just started snowing lightly here, with some big flakes. I am hoping that little jog south out by Pulaski continues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Its times like these that are just maddening to me as you just sit there and watch the radar and look out the window, lol! That's exactly what I an doing...and providing up to second updates on here. Meteorological multi-tasking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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