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Upstate/Eastern New York


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9 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Absolutley crushing out there right now. Why couldn't it have done this all day or stay all night tonight? Can see the south shift coming pretty quickly now. Oh well, better late than never and maybe I can land up at a foot which isnt bad considering how long I was in the "transition zone" for today.

Not seeing the quick southward shift on radar...which one shows the west end of the lake??? Looking at the northern edge of the band over southern Ontario the line does not move.

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We were getting slammed here just a while ago.  Yes now I see why everyone is saying this is a nasty storm.. but again we are almost back out of the bands.  Had another 2.5” for my PM measure puts my storm total at 11.2”.  Really not to bad just stinks when it keeps comming in 2-3” little bursts.

Cold is crazy!!  Took my gloves off for 2 minutes to record a video and they are burning like crazy!  Plus walking into the snow it’s so cold my eye lids were freezing shut had to look at the ground to walk forward. 

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1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

We were getting slammed here just a while ago.  Yes now I see why everyone is saying this is a nasty storm.. but again we are almost back out of the bands.  Had another 2.5” for my PM measure puts my storm total at 11.2”.  Really not to bad just stinks when it keeps comming in 2-3” little bursts.

Cold is crazy!!  Took my gloves off for 2 minutes to record a video and they are burning like crazy!  Plus walking into the snow it’s so cold my eye lids were freezing shut had to look at the ground to walk forward. 

It has snowed under that northern band in Williamsville since yesterday morning for 35 of the 38 hours since yesterday at 9am. This storm has baffled the Mets from the NWS to the local on air Mets...in fact Andrew Baglini on WIVB 4 just stated " I will not show you the models because they are useless...you don't say...

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It has snowed under that northern band in Williamsville since yesterday morning for 35 of the 38 hours since yesterday at 9am. This storm has baffled the Mets from the NWS to the local on air Mets...in fact Andrew Baglini on WIVB 4 just stated " I will not show you the models because they are useless...you don't say...

I wonder if the consistent dual structure of the storm is being affected by the configuration of the open ice. 

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It has snowed under that northern band in Williamsville since yesterday morning for 35 of the 38 hours since yesterday at 9am. This storm has baffled the Mets from the NWS to the local on air Mets...in fact Andrew Baglini on WIVB 4 just stated " I will not show you the models because they are useless...you don't say...


Andy Parker was pretty spot on. This was his map yesterday evening prior to the event starting. He really stressed the double bullseye and was excellent with the placement just a little on the low end with the totals... best forecast in my opinion.
8403c10a24ee49cb040188b460d1ee48.jpg
bf458d0b6e97966f559a5ef9554905dd.jpg
541c2ab2448f63a0b5fb7701c46d2bb4.jpg


.
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2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


Andy Parker was pretty spot on. This was his map yesterday evening prior to the event starting. He really stressed the double bullseye and was excellent with the placement just a little on the low end with the totals... best forecast in my opinion.
8403c10a24ee49cb040188b460d1ee48.jpg
bf458d0b6e97966f559a5ef9554905dd.jpg
541c2ab2448f63a0b5fb7701c46d2bb4.jpg


.

 

Yeah that is pretty spot on. Not sure what caused the issues but one thing is clear is the models did a piss poor job right up to and during the event...several times the band was supposed to move south, and each time it didn't, not to mention only Parker and WKBW 7 showed a model with a dual band, the other stations were reaching for a beer 10 feet away with 2 foot arms.

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Think about everything that needed to come together for this storm. There’s only a short window when the lake is freezing up for a major storm. And to get delta Ts like this, you need to have anomalously frigid air. Add to that the particular heading that goes over the two areas of open ice, and this becomes a very rare event.

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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

I have witnessed this most recently as December '17 when a leading band was over the Northtowns and a southern band from blasdell south. 

I’ve seen the dual band structure but it’s usually much more transient. This is amazing.

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The LO band seems to not wanna drop South and according to most, if not all meso's, it's going to but only for a short period overnight before the winds veer once again into the SW ahead of the approaching SW tomorrow afternoon so some of thos stupidly insane totals, like the 36-60" is just not gonna happen.  It's quite obvious there's 2 main bands one to the North over Watertown and the other cutting across C-Oswego County and up into the Tug, don't know if that's affecting Matt's crib but its close but it's nowhere near what everyone was expecting, including me, and thats being aided by the Erie band or else there wouldn't be much to that southern band.

I've never seen the Central-Southern tug get missed so many times as its getting quite comical actually!

 

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It’s almost another 20”+ storm at KBUF. I’ll have to see how 24 hour total shakes out but could be yet another top 20 single day snowfalls for us in less than a week.  That’s crazy!   

 
Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1037 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...Erie County...
   Buffalo Airport       19.4  1000 PM  1/30  NWS Office
   Kenmore               17.0   420 PM  1/30  Trained Spotter
   3 WSW Elma            12.9   400 PM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   Hamburg               10.8   600 PM  1/30  Public
   Clarence              10.0  1000 PM  1/30  Amateur Radio
   3 SSW Marilla          9.0   930 PM  1/30  Trained Spotter
   Alden                  4.5   430 PM  1/30  12-hr total

...Monroe County...
   Rochester Airport      1.5   700 PM  1/30  ASOS
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3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The LO band seems to not wanna drop South and according to most, if not all meso's, it's going to but only for a short period overnight before the winds veer once again into the SW ahead of the approaching SW tomorrow afternoon so some of thos stupidly insane totals, like the 36-60" is just not gonna happen.  It's quite obvious there's 2 main bands one to the North over Watertown and the other cutting across C-Oswego County and up into the Tug, don't know if that's affecting Matt's crib but its close but it's nowhere near what everyone was expecting, including me, and thats being aided by the Erie band or else there wouldn't be much to that southern band.

I've never seen the Central-Southern tug get missed so many times as its getting quite comical actually!

 

Comical to the point of pissing me off. Unreal.

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’ve done pretty well here, even being on the edge or outside of bands most of the day.

This is the first time I think I’ve seen a ground blizzard. Just big clouds of snow getting blown around. Really cool to see.

That Northern band is dropping rapidly so you should be back in the thick of things real soon!

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1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I don't even know what to say Matt as I've never seen the Tug get missed this many time, especially 2 events in a row!  The NWS's forecast are gonna be in jeopardy if things don't change and do so quickly!

I honestly don't think I am going to see a good west wind event this winter. 3 months in and still waiting. This bloody pattern involves a jet stream that is not conducive at all for west wind events. It has frankly been the same all winter. I guarantee you next week we will get the thaws with NW flow Iake effect in between. Then the next week.we will get a cold snap on SW winds.

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