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Upstate/Eastern New York


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9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Just read the blizzard warning for Northern Erie County raised the new snow amount from 5 to 10 inches to 10 to 20 more and it does not say southern portions of northern Erie like it normally does. This is now officially an epic storm for the Northtowns...its been far too long. Going to enjoy...plus also been updated that the LES will continue through Friday morning. 

Even my wife, a southtowns native, is impressed by this storm.

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7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Probably not the time or place, but was fun to see what happens when a model really runs away with a system (unrealistically).  The FV3 really cranked up this Nor'Easter.  Basically a hurricane strength system. 943mb!!  

Capture1.PNG.758aa5df49fc831593952f221ea4d569.PNG

Someone's bored, posting a 300+ hour op run...Crazy depiction for sure though!

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1 minute ago, AppsRunner said:

My favorite type of METAR:

KBUF 302054Z 24020G34KT 0SM R23/0500V1200FT +SN BLSN

I know we have fantastic snow removal operations at our upstate airports but it still amazes me they can keep the flights going in weather like this. Obviously instrument flight rules are in effect. 

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25 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

No way man.  I will not budge an inch on this debate.  We havent even gotten a half inch of snow. 

If Tim had said winds would create ground blizzards I would give him credi but we all expected to having blowing and drifting concerns with the antecedent conditons..  But as for new snow it has been minimal at best. 

True. Hey, when is your vacation and where will you be?

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I know we have fantastic snow removal operations at our upstate airports but it still amazes me they can keep the flights going in weather like this. Obviously instrument flight rules are in effect. 

Airport is still listed as open but all arrivals and departures are currently marked as canceled for the remainder of the day...


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21 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Probably not the time or place, but was fun to see what happens when a model really runs away with a system (unrealistically).  The FV3 really cranked up this Nor'Easter.  Basically a hurricane strength system. 943mb!!  

Capture1.PNG.758aa5df49fc831593952f221ea4d569.PNG

Keep an eye out...never know if this is a signal for something big possible over the next 2 week. Imagine is something like that happened closer to the coast!

Tough to see 2 cutter potentials in the next week or so.

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20 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Anyone think the rapid weakening of the lake effect is from the lake rapidly freezing over with temps down to 0 or below? 

Perhaps, impossible to tell from satellite imagery, but according to this map, the lake is fairly ice covered. I know we found this map to pretty suspect, but there's definitely gotta be a decent ice cover now, regardless of wind or waves.

Also maybe more dry air is working in and inhibiting the snow.

20190130180000_NAIS25ESD_0010436896.gif

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36 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

True. Hey, when is your vacation and where will you be?

Leaving Sunday morning (perhaps saturday night now) and heading to Lake Placid and Whiteface to ride Sunday through Wednesday.  Then heading over to Smugglers Notch and Stowe for Thursday through Sunday.  I'm currently exploring options to bail on the Vermont half of the trip.  The whiteface portion is happening regardless of weather as I already have too much invested in that portion of the trip.  At least Lake Placid is a super fun town with plenty of other things to do.  I foresee a lot of ice skating and bar hopping in my future, perhaps even a run down the bobsled course if we really run out of ideas and the mountain is beat/closed.  We'll just make the best of it.  

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Spotter Reports
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
326 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...Erie County...
   1 NW Williamsville    17.7   103 PM  1/30  Trained Spotter
   Buffalo Airport       16.1   300 PM  1/30  NWS Office
   East Aurora           14.0   200 PM  1/30  Trained Spotter
   1 W Cheektowaga       13.0   126 PM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   West Seneca            9.0   126 PM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   S Buffalo              8.7   140 PM  1/30  Trained Spotter
   Cheektowaga            8.0   126 PM  1/30  Trained Spotter
   Lancaster              8.0   126 PM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   2 SSW Blasdell         7.0   215 PM  1/30  CoCoRaHS

...Genesee County...
   4 S Corfu             14.0   200 PM  1/30  Trained Spotter

...Jefferson County...
   S Watertown            6.7   215 PM  1/30  CoCoRaHS

...Niagara County...
   1 S Lockport          10.0   200 PM  1/30  Trained Spotter
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5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

190 is now closed with a large multi vehicle accident...
fda9846e6a1eb7d1088f65f833257ac1.jpg
e83799dc5c27aab7c6ec1ed3b385e24e.jpg
d641208c59a0c2463f15b053c5691095.jpg


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Yo I drove through there earlier around 3:30’ish and almost lost control on that bend right after the Kenmore ave exit, it goes from clear pavement to icy slush. 

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10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

This is absolutley epic for the northtowns for sure. You guys are gonna land up with 30” somewhere. 

That 17.7 is from 1pm. It has not stopped snowing...not to mention I'm at almost 2 feet for the whole event. In fact I'm kinda questioning the low end of that as it has snows an average of an inch an hour for about 24 of the last 36 hours. Yes there were periods of 2 to 3 inch an hour and periods of 1/4 to 1/2 inch hour. It averages out. If this band stays put and it continues to snow 30" is not a pipe dream. 

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