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15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Depends where, I think. Out by southwestern its only a bit more, but it increases as you get further east and go up in elevation. 

Every 5 miles south and east you go snowfall goes up 5-10”. Once you get near Springville it starts to decrease as you go south and east. Wsw/w/nw lake effect events are so much more common then sw/ssw

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Every 5 miles south and east you go snowfall goes up 5-10”. Once you get near Springville it starts to decrease as you go south and east. 

Right, but nowhere near a few miles of the lakeshore and near the lake plain elevation averages more than 100". I can't seem to find BUF's good snowfall climo map. It shows the same thing I'm discussing. Village of Hamburg and Op is definitely more, but near Route 20...its near BUF, and down by route 5 its actually probably less than BUF. 

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Right, but nowhere near a few miles of the lakeshore and near the lake plain elevation averages more than 100". I can't seem to find BUF's good snowfall climo map. It shows the same thing I'm discussing. Village of Hamburg and Op is definitely more, but near Route 20...its near BUF, and down by route 5 its actually probably less than BUF. 

Immediate shore line yes but farther south is always better then farther north for lake effect. City of buffalo probably averages 20-30” less then KBUF 

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5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Not bad  this morning. Total of 2.8" yesterday here north of SYR. No wind at all. The snow blowing was easy.  For there to be a wind chill warning, doesn't there have to be wind? Asking for a friend.

Wind chill warning is for later today into tonight, when the core of the arctic air arrives and the winds increase. 

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10 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

The NAM has 43.54N with 28" verbatim..

And 43.53N with 8" lol

Guuess where i live haha

Rechecked my coordinates, im at 43.543121, so we're good haha ..

Nam continues with it's crazy cuttoff, couple feet over my house with less then 6" in the back of my property, i'd like to see that one lol

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16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Rechecked my coordinates, im at 43.543121, so we're good haha ..

Nam continues with it's crazy cuttoff, couple feet over my house with less then 6" in the back of my property, i'd like to see that one lol

You used to live in Fulton, right? Altmar really will be pushing the southern fringe most of the event. Best of luck to you! 

11 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

I don't think that's actually an area where it isn't snowing, just an artifact of the radar. I'm sure someone can give a more detailed reason for it's occurrence, but it always seems to be there

I believe you're correct... those are very low level tilts that have the hole (<500ft), if you go up to the 0.9 degree tilt (600-700ft) the band looks much more coherent. I don't have any solid guesses of what's causing that though. My only thought would be something airport related? But that's about all I got. 

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20 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think at least some of the band weakness today could be attributed to additional freezing. The winds with this event thus far haven't been particular strong, so ice can continue to form. 

 

egg_east (1).gif

Yeah where are these big winds gusting to 45mph.  It’s almost dead calm out there right now.  

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still thinking the same for Watertown? Morning high resolution guidance still looks pretty good to me. 

Yeah, I'd think so. There still seems to be a bit of shear, especially above 800mb this morning/afternoon that may hinder development more than I originally thought, but I would venture that the band sits over Watertown several hours each day, so it won't be 24" in one shot but over the course of this afternoon/tonight/tomorrow/tomorrow night. 

I also still think the models have a bit of a south bias overall with their QPF placement, which seems to always be a common theme. I have a few friends @Phillifan22 + a couple others headed out to Adams or so by tonight, and I've been disagreeing a bit on where their best shot is to set up. 

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