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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji

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Just now, PCT_ATC said:

who was it that said we dont get mecs hecs in the latter half of February.  DT? lol

we didn't get one yet.  I have learned never to count your money when your sitting at the table. we have all seen things turn on a dime at much closer leads so no one should be crying or celebrating as of now.  just my 2 cents

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS is all over the place with the weekend but really hits on the bigger event. Best d10 GEFS weenie run I've ever seen. I have no faith or trust in the GEFS so my excitement level is tempered. 

But HM and DT said we're basically out of time so we should all just move on to Spring LOL

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3 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

But HM and DT said we're basically out of time so we should all just move on to Spring LOL

I'm kinda surprised they have been hesitant. It almost makes me second guess my bullish stance on the rest of the season but I guess I just don't see the same risks. It may be hard to get a clean/big snowstorm over the next 1-2 weeks but man, I think our chances look about as good as you can ever ask in any winter except the holy grail mod nino/blocking. 

I felt very confident in getting additional snowfall when Feb started and I've only gotten more confident. Weather works like the stock market sometimes. When it's all hyped up it fails but when there's fear and blood in the streets it rocks. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
8 minutes ago, Steve25 said:
But HM and DT said we're basically out of time so we should all just move on to Spring LOL

HM didnt say we are out of time but if we have no nao nest week...we are heading into March pretty much still waiting

so if it doesn't snow it won't have snowed

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Just now, osfan24 said:

GEFS looks amazing, but while it may be the weeniest of all-time, you have to wonder given the pattern just how much sleet and slop it's counting as snow.

Enough to not think that we're going to get destroyed but under the hood looks really good to me. Will feel better if the Euro/EPS is at least somewhat similar. 

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GEFS is dead set on rolling the EPO ridge forward, building the +PNA/-NAO, and putting the east in a trough. Looks really good before this but as we get towards March we're going to need a legit cold pattern to make it work. This is a legit cold pattern but apparently winter is cancelled so I guess we toss

Kg5ovCb.jpg

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