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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


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3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

6z GFS slides the weekend light snow deal south to DT land.

Wonder how he would handle that with his proclamation that winter is done.

Seasonal trends at play this weekend. This sub region should score (possibly big?) with (not that anyone cares and not a complaint I am actually voicing opinion in a positive outcome for y'all) M/D line N getting fringed. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I was trolling him and his response to my 5” of snow was “a few hours of snow and sleet and suddenly you think winter is back”. Lol. 

The problem with his proclamation is people will remember the snow against what he said.  He will be viewed as wrong (and likely already is by many that just got snow) regarding no winter in the east through the 28th.  You guys get one or two more wintry systems in the next 6-10 and the egg is not only on his face, but so thick he will need a chisel to get it all off. 

Good luck with that sneaky system for Saturday, maybe you guys can back into one.  Pulling for the MA, just to see DT go down in flames.  Any snow in Richmond, would be icing on the cake.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean it just wants to snow in the Mid Atlantic this year. I cant remember another year where just about every threat in a winter worked out for our area over everyone else. 09/10 maybe. But even that season NE got theirs as well. Just a wild seasonal trend this year for our area.

This is a real thing ie when the pattern sets up and it just wants to bullseye and snow in certain areas. Usually takes a major pattern change to alter this.

 

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The problem with his proclamation is people will remember the snow against what he said.  He will be viewed as wrong (and likely already is by many that just got snow) regarding no winter in the east through the 28th.  You guys get one or two more wintry systems in the next 6-10 and the egg is not only on his face, but so thick he will need a chisel to get it all off. 

Good luck with that sneaky system for Saturday, maybe you guys can back into one.  Pulling for the MA, just to see DT go down in flames.  Any snow in Richmond, would be icing on the cake.

My thing is the gentleman goes with a cold and snowy winter with AN to much AN snowfall. I can understand adjusting your call at this time of the season but to basically write it off and suggest winter cancel is absurd. There was and is still plenty of time to hit his outlook. If there was overwhelming evidence to suggest it's over then ok, but even if the signals for a wild end of the month were merely muted it was still premature to talk in definitive as he did. But the pattern is screaming for many more chances going forward. I dont hate the guy I just dont understand the logic.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

This is a real thing ie when the pattern sets up and it just wants to bullseye and snow in certain areas. Usually takes a major pattern change to alter this.

 

My thing is the gentleman goes with a cold and snowy winter with AN to much AN snowfall. I can understand adjusting your call at this time of the season but to basically write it off and suggest winter cancel is absurd. There was and is still plenty of time to hit his outlook. If there was overwhelming evidence to suggest it's over then ok, but even if the signals for a wild end of the month were merely muted it was still premature to talk in definitive as he did. But the pattern is screaming for many more chances going forward. I dont hate the guy I just dont understand the logic.

speaking as a southerner, you lost me right about .....................here.  

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seasonal trends at play this weekend. This sub region should score (possibly big?) with (not that anyone cares and not a complaint I am actually voicing opinion in a positive outcome for y'all) M/D line N getting fringed. 

Not sure I would be thinking MD line north getting fringed at this time. If what is showing up on current guidance is somewhat accurate this setup has a lot more play with moving north then it does south on future runs. As south trends will be predicated on the initial confluence setup, N trends will not only be dependent on the initial confluence setup but when that confluence begins relaxing as well. So odds probably favor any future trends, if any, will more then likely be north.

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8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure I would be thinking MD line north getting fringed at this time. If what is showing up on current guidance is somewhat accurate this setup has a lot more play with moving north then it does south on future runs. As south trends will be predicated on the initial confluence setup, N trends will not only be dependent on the initial confluence setup but when that confluence begins relaxing as well. So odds probably favor any future trends, if any, will more then likely be north.

Understood and makes sense. But some guidance is South of you guys even. So IF those ideas are right combined with your relaxing confluence then you guys could still be in just the right spot again....which is where I would put my $ right now....tho subject to a refund in the next 72 hours ;)

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Understood and makes sense. But some guidance is South of you guys even. So IF those ideas are right combined with your relaxing confluence then you guys could still be in just the right spot again....which is where I would put my $ right now....tho subject to a refund in the next 72 hours ;)

Subject to a refund of $.02?...

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9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Slide under us in a good way? Or too far under?

Tough to tell for sure but the s/w is pretty much in the same spot as 0z just a little stronger/more defined.  Everything else looks the same...would be similar to 0z track but maybe a bit stronger surface low.  Just a guess...I hate extrapolating!  

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Tough to tell for sure but the s/w is pretty much in the same spot as 0z just a little stronger/more defined.  Everything else looks the same...would be similar to 0z track but maybe a bit stronger surface low.  Just a guess...I hate extrapolating!  

Little stronger would probably mean a larger precip field and get the guys a little further north into the good stuff. Still too far out to worry about any details. But I am feeling pretty good about this one.

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Just a quick mention  but the first in a week or more that the CPC AO ensembles look a lot better , overall concensus on a drop and a few members with a severe drop in the AO  Two members to a - 5 SD drop. Nice to see and matches what the GEPS put out yesterday near Greenland but at hour 324.  

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12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nice looking NAO and AO forecast. Fits right in with the PSU late February beatdown period.

The Pac forcing looks great this morning,  and now you see the indicies starting to line up with a typical MJO phase 8 and then a phase 1 composite. 

Out in the Pac now is the perfect storm lining up to produce snow for our region. 

 

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