BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 36 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Euro looks pretty decent for Saturday. Daytime snow with temps right around freezing, ~0.5 QPF for DC. Could be a nice event. man the FV3 looks good for Saturday. I am not using exclamatory words any more since they just serve to hype. but Saturday could feature some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I agree. I find too often people look at indice and charts without actually eyeballing for themselves what the look actually is. But in this case I do think they reflect the uncertainty that the models have in regards to the tropical forcings. So though the maps may show what we may want to see at this time, we are still in fact talking 10+ days away. Now I haven't been following the MJO like you have and following the maps with tropical convection but from some of what I have seen, haven't we had several instances this winter where the convection was showing up in 8/1 in the long range only to move away from it in the shorter ranges? Not only that but weren't the MJO forecasts also very ambiguous during these periods? The mjo has been in a fairly consistent pattern. Of course that’s in hindsight. The first wave of winter initiated around phase 1/2 and propagated strongly and slowly (with lots of stalls) through 3-4-5-6-7 then died in 8. The next wave initiated in 3/4 and slowly propagated to 6/7 where it died. This wave is initiating in 7 and heading into 8. According to Don there is historical basis for a stall or recycle from 8 to 7 before the wave advances to 1. So seeing that isn’t too bothersome. Seems a normal thing. I scanned through some past winter mjo charts and he seems to be right with that loop there a regular occurrence. Must be a tendency as waves shift east of New Zealand they die and a new wave reforms northwest before moving east. By this point last time the signs the mjo wave was dead and reforming near the maritime continent was apparent. This time the squabble in guidance is wrt exac convection locations over the central pac and amplitude. The maritime continent is the center of subsidence and high pressure through the next 2+ weeks. No sign of that changing yet. The seasonal mjo trend has been slow and amplified. Slow is good here since the forcing is where we want. Keep it tooling around in 8/1/2 until climo runs out in about 5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs really stepping up the blocking look the last few runs. Given the SOI crash, a possibly more coherent Nino-ish Pac look, and the fact that we are in late winter, it might just verify for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I agree. I find too often people look at indice and charts without actually eyeballing for themselves what the look actually is. But in this case I do think they reflect the uncertainty that the models have in regards to the tropical forcings. So though the maps may show what we may want to see at this time, we are still in fact talking 10+ days away. Now I haven't been following the MJO like you have and following the maps with tropical convection but from some of what I have seen, haven't we had several instances this winter where the convection was showing up in 8/1 in the long range only to move away from it in the shorter ranges? Not only that but weren't the MJO forecasts also very ambiguous during these periods? I think Don S was saying even as the MJO was progressing it was fading. And yes some MJO tools just forcus on the standing wave. psu's reference about the look with subsidence is spot on, I love the SOI this AM as mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: man the FV3 looks good for Saturday. I am not using exclamatory words any more since they just serve to hype. but Saturday could feature some snow. Real good for sure. Fresh cold smoke in the daytime. What a perfect Saturday that could potentially be. I’m all for the weeniest model as long as the Euro (and others) got its back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: man the FV3 looks good for Saturday. I am not using exclamatory words any more since they just serve to hype. but Saturday could feature some snow. Definitely how this can work. The initial trough and associated cutter run up and create confluence over top initially to drive the left behind NS energy south. Then start relaxing in time to allow that energy to amplify as it moves east. But it will be all about timing if this is how it plays out. The confluence stays to long and we have a suppressed weaker system. It departs to soon and we probably get rained on as the system runs through our region or even to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Next week’s chance still there? I am hunting big storms if I am gonna get to climo. Yeah we are running out of time to nickel and dime our way. A couple solid warning events or one biggie would get me to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 These one off snow events will allow dt to claim victory about winter not returning in the east....book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Check out the scale. (Maybe the North Atlantic trough being modeled won't be so strong (currently -360 on 6zGFS ensemble mean)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 How about that -23.34 SOI today! Eoro has a pretty major ice storm again for next week. Over 1" qpf with temps well below freezing....especially NW of 95. A slightly colder version of yesterday's 12z run.Psu nailed the soi forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 There is going to be a lot of tracking in here. It might be time to break off the Saturday threat into a different thread. Maybe after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: These one off snow events will allow dt to claim victory about winter not returning in the east....book it I wish he cancelled winter in December... Seems like things started turning interesting just as he did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: These one off snow events will allow dt to claim victory about winter not returning in the east....book it Has Richmond had snow since the early Dec event? He mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Has Richmond had snow since the early Dec event? He mad. We have not. Our time has come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Euro and FV3 are hits for the weekend. Gfs and icon are south. CMC is west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, Hyphnx said: We have not. Our time has come! Hug the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mjo has been in a fairly consistent pattern. Of course that’s in hindsight. The first wave of winter initiated around phase 1/2 and propagated strongly and slowly (with lots of stalls) through 3-4-5-6-7 then died in 8. The next wave initiated in 3/4 and slowly propagated to 6/7 where it died. This wave is initiating in 7 and heading into 8. According to Don there is historical basis for a stall or recycle from 8 to 7 before the wave advances to 1. So seeing that isn’t too bothersome. Seems a normal thing. I scanned through some past winter mjo charts and he seems to be right with that loop there a regular occurrence. Must be a tendency as waves shift east of New Zealand they die and a new wave reforms northwest before moving east. By this point last time the signs the mjo wave was dead and reforming near the maritime continent was apparent. This time the squabble in guidance is wrt exac convection locations over the central pac and amplitude. The maritime continent is the center of subsidence and high pressure through the next 2+ weeks. No sign of that changing yet. The seasonal mjo trend has been slow and amplified. Slow is good here since the forcing is where we want. Keep it tooling around in 8/1/2 until climo runs out in about 5 weeks. I'll take your word for it. Have really scaled back on the longer range, pattern shifts, etc.. over the last couple of weeks and have been focusing more so on the more immediate threats. So you are definitely more in the know then I am at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Euro and FV3 are hits for the weekend. Gfs and icon are south. CMC is west. Pick the model that gives you least snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: These one off snow events will allow dt to claim victory about winter not returning in the east....book it He is being an arse. I should know I am one. But he says “so you get snow and think winter is back”. Umm yea what time of year does he think it snows lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Didn’t see any Euro maps for the weekend. Hard to tell from just description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Didn’t see any Euro maps for the weekend. Hard to tell from just description. 4-6 inches for immediate metro with the higher amounts south. A finger of 6+ running west through southern Fairfax. This using 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Didn’t see any Euro maps for the weekend. Hard to tell from just description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 We should be able to start extrapolating the NAM by tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Didn’t see any Euro maps for the weekend. Hard to tell from just description. Kuchera, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I'll take your word for it. Have really scaled back on the longer range, pattern shifts, etc.. over the last couple of weeks and have been focusing more so on the more immediate threats. So you are definitely more in the know then I am at this point. The word is given... Nothing is a given but I am confident the mjo will not be a problem the next few weeks. If we fail it will be a different way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Fringed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Let's wait til tomorrow for a weekend threat thread. Keep the disco here. My .02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 My NWS forecast for this weekend shows 40+F highs and only mentions rain showers. Hmmmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I don't hate that image at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: My NWS forecast for this weekend shows 40+F highs and only mentions rain showers. Hmmmm..... Topper says 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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