jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: On a more serious note, I'd be curious how much of this is after next weekend (which apparently the ensembles don't support?)...I'd take it nearly all? And how much includes the other potential mid-week next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Well it would explain the SE ridge that keeps showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman Wonder what makes him say this? Fine...But, he hasnt given any hints as to what his analogs/research has shown. Unless I have missed it. I admit I didnt dig into his feed to see if he has. He is obviously keying on the weak PV....I just wish I knew what years he has as a comparison....are they ninos? MJO similarities etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Ok I’ll ask the stupid question but the post Furturdo means what? I thought 8/1 was the holy grail of MJO? From the discussions on here I was under the same impression (don't tell me there's some "wait but it can't be there THIS way" fine print there too, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: From the discussions on here I was under the same impression (don't tell me there's some "wait but it can't be there THIS way" fine print there too, lol That is always the case. I’m convinced we can have -NAO -AO +PNA phase 1 50/50 and still rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Fine...But, he hasnt given any hints as to what his analogs/research has shown. Unless I have missed it. I admit I didnt dig into his feed to see if he has. He is obviously keying on the weak PV....I just wish I knew what years he has as a comparison....are they ninos? MJO similarities etc... Is the SPV really that weak though? Much more consolidated and cold since the split/warming event. Being totally honest... I think the strat gets too much credit for its influence on the troposphere. In the last 13 years since I began looking deeply into NWP it seems way more hit and miss considering the level of attention it gets. And I really don't believe the mjo hitting P8&1 with a respectable amplitude means more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That is always the case. I’m convinced we can have -NAO -AO +PNA phase 1 50/50 and still rain. With our type of climo it certainly can. It can also snow with a +ao/nao and mjo phase 5 or whatever, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With our type of climo it certainly can. It can also snow with a +ao/nao and mjo phase 5 or whatever, Will keep that in mind. Good indicies only tip the scale in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Fine...But, he hasnt given any hints as to what his analogs/research has shown. Unless I have missed it. I admit I didnt dig into his feed to see if he has. He is obviously keying on the weak PV....I just wish I knew what years he has as a comparison....are they ninos? MJO similarities etc... I think his student , a grad student maybe, was doing a study but that comment he made, well I am not sure I buy it. So the strat is over whelming the Pac and it's forcing, both ocean based and above. Would like more info and the nature and scope of the study. MJO phase 8 and 1 long standing composites are the Holy Grail of East Coast storms, unless something has changed all of the sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Is the SPV really that weak though? Much more consolidated and cold since the split/warming event. Being totally honest... I think the strat gets too much credit for its influence on the troposphere. In the last 13 years since I began looking deeply into NWP it seems way more hit and miss considering the level of attention it gets. And I really don't believe the mjo hitting P8&1 with a respectable amplitude means more of the same. Agree completely with the bolded... At 10mb things are cooling and consolidating to a certain extent but we are still very weak as you progress down to 50mb. I think the strat is comparable to Cohen's theory on snow advance....It wouldnt get this much play if there wasn't something to it. The complexities and slight differences in development/progression...other drivers, can make them fools gold but also reliable tools. The beauty of seasonal forecasting is it's still in its infancy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 41 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman Wonder what makes him say this? No idea but in the mjo data that goes back 30 years I don’t see and phase 8/1 nino warm periods in February so what is his sample size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, frd said: I think his student , a grad student maybe, was doing a study but that comment he made, well I am not sure I buy it. So the strat is over whelming the Pac and it's forcing, both ocean based and above. Would like more info and the nature and scope of the study. MJO phase 8 and 1 long standing composites are the Holy Grail of East Coast storms, unless something has changed all of the sudden. Agreed. Maybe someone has found a set of variables that would create a pattern of trough west/SE ridge even with a P8-1 MJO. That would be an awesome find. As we know, nothing is a guarantee in this business....and a P8-1 does not guarantee anything. .... but the correlation to a good winter pattern for the east is very high whether we are nino or not and that means a lot imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Agree completely with the bolded... At 10mb things are cooling and consolidating to a certain extent but we are still very weak as you progress down to 50mb. I think the strat is comparable to Cohen's theory on snow advance....It wouldnt get this much play if there wasn't something to it. The complexities and slight differences in development/progression...other drivers, can make them fools gold but also reliable tools. The beauty of seasonal forecasting is it's still in its infancy.... Agree on the strat. I just looked at all the levels on wxbell. Below 10mb it's far from consolidated and cold. Not much of a -ao response on this strat event. I agree there's def something to it but not nearly as clear as Cohen made many believe. Since the SAI became mainstream a few years back its busted pretty much every year. Lol. This year wasn't a strong signal so I guess the lack of a -ao fits the SAI. What about the strat though? Texbook event and no -nao at all. I think that the ao/nao run in some sort of decadal cycle for reasons nobody has figured out. We're clearly in a positive cycle of some sort. That's prob going to flip here in the near future and suddenly the SAI is going to actually start working again. The old saying around here of "weather is just going to weather" has been extremely true this year. I expect a lot of creative backfitting with seasonal forecasts once this winter is over. Either that or many long rangers will just admit that they epically busted. Regardless of all that technical stuff... I think our area is going to end up with some very respectable snow totals this season. I'm expecting my yard to get close to or over 30" on the year unless everything falls apart. No signs of that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I know it was only 7 days but phase 8 in January shifted the trough into the east and we got two snows out of it. Definitely wasn’t what he implies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 18z EPS wants nothing to do with snow in DC this weekend. Handful of members give DC snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 We will have to see about the MJO per Don S ( not sure the GFS and GEFA are the best tools to use here for the MJO ) However lets keep that SOI diving please. I like MINUS 40 please. The below post is from Don S courtesy 33andrain Posted just now A storm will likely bring snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain to parts of the region tomorrow. The SOI was -19.02 today. That's the lowest figure since January 4, 2019 when the SOI was -20.30. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.205. That is the highest value since September 25, 2018 when the AO was +2.265. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.341. For the second consecutive day, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported no MJO data. However, based on model initialization (which is subject to some degree of error), the MJO was in Phase 7 today and near Phase 8. Assuming the model initialization is accurate, it would likely reach Phase 8 in the next day. This is faster than what had previously been modeled and could result in a lag before the atmosphere responds. Afterward, the outlook remains somewhat uncertain. The historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7 from Phase 8 prior to any move to Phase 1. Both the GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS are now showing such an outcome. For now, it remains more likely than not that the MJO will either be in Phase 7 or 8 at mid-month. A fairly stormy pattern is now evolving. A complex system will likely bring a period of snow changing to sleet, freezing rain, then rain across the region later tonight and through tomorrow. Accumulations of 1"-3" in Philadelphia and 2"-4" in such cities as Newark and New York are likely. Well north and west of those areas (including Scranton and Binghamton) and eastward across parts of New England, including the snow-starved Boston area (where just 2.3" snow has been recorded to date), the potential exists for 3"-6". This likely won't be the last snowfall threat for February. With some of the guidance suggesting the development of the strongest westerly wind burst of the winter, the SOI could fall even farther in coming days. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. In short, the subtropical jet could become increasingly active during the second half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum Brooklynwx "The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases." 1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada. This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame: There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase." 2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition. Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This is from a very intelligent meteorology student from another forum Brooklynwx "The period from 2/20 through early March could be quite historic, in my opinion. This will occur in two distinct "phases." 1) There will be a large thermal gradient with the NE in the cross hairs as a 500mb SE ridge takes shape. Although these always appear unfavorable looking at misleading anomaly maps, this feature is vital if you want an active pattern. In fact, there is a strong cold air feed at 2m due to the -NAO taking shape, which forces lower than average heights and HP in the 50/50 region and SE Canada. This pattern might look unfavorable for the E US at a quick glance, however, look at the 2m temperature anomalies valid for the same time frame: There isn't a warm spell in sight. This shows me that there is HP entrenched in SE Canada, which establishes a strong cold press into the NE US. Coupled with the SE ridge aloft, there could be numerous cold SWFEs and overrunning events. Coastals aren't too likely with that upper air setup, but those two storm types can produce prolific snowfall amounts on the right side of the thermal gradient (which I believe the NE US will be on). Also, notice the classic NAO/EPO/AO ridge bridge becoming established. This will set the stage for the second "phase." 2) As the polar blocking fully develops and ridging builds in the EPO and PNA domains, the mean trough will begin to migrate eastward. This will open up chances for major coastal systems to impact the E US. Here, the NAO blocking begins to retrograde into the Davis Strait, and the longwave trough moves into the C US as the western heights begin to rise with a strong STJ into S California. Everything is there: high heights throughout the polar regions, a broad trough over the C US extending into the E US, and a defined 50/50 signal. This is a little harder to see, but the TPV is elongated throughout SE Canada, which opens up a wide variety of phasing scenarios. This is an amazing look, and "thread the needle" won't be uttered often if this pattern comes to fruition. Overall, I believe that this is the best pattern that we have seen all winter, and it could prove to have historic results if it indeed comes to fruition. " Lol that’s exactly the progression I posted earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Feels like three camps...snow and cold potential coming...winters basically over....and Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Feels like three camps...snow and cold potential coming...winters basically over....and Bob You are on a roll !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 47 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z EPS wants nothing to do with snow in DC this weekend. Handful of members give DC snow. Prob need too much too fast for this weekend to work out so not a surprise. Things are in a bit of flux making it tricky to know exactly what this weekend will look like. With the deep western trough spacing needs to be really tight and that's how the Fv3 makes it work. I'm actually pretty surprised how much the 12z guidance changed. Very sudden. The big wound up rainer appeared to be locked in on all guidance. Now it's much more complicated and we're only talking 5-6 days out. Interested to see what 0z does. If there's big changes again, already low confidence will get even lower. Then there's next week... Lots of questions and few answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol that’s exactly the progression I posted earlier today. The new weeklies support that progression. Not a huge blocking signal but gets the trough into the east and looks good into mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Feels like three camps...snow and cold potential coming...winters basically over....and Bob You need to come over and shovel my driveway as a thank you for making it snow in your yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 MJO is going into Phase 8. It will be interesting to see what happens in the Pacific, -PNA (modeled) is opposite of what you would expect. (Is the trough near Hawaii some support?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Feels like three camps...snow and cold potential coming...winters basically over....and Bob What about Bob? Great movie...just finished Groundhog Day. Maybe I’ll do that one tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Hmmmm What about Bob is okay but I always get really annoyed Kinda like drop dead fred but not as strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Hmmmm What about Bob is okay but I always get really annoyed Kinda like drop dead fred but not as strong Bill Murray is completely annoying in most movies. That's not going to go over too well with most. Nothing else to add.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Bill Murray is completely annoying in most movies. That's not going to go over too well with most. Nothing else to add.... Lol I like his personality. He seems like a snarky smartass like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 0z Icon showing PD lite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 LOL, I'm just now seeing the FV3 for this weekend. Sadly this is the Ji of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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