jaydreb Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Boundary further south than 12z through 108hrs. True, but not enough. Precip doesn’t get here anyway but worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: True, but not enough. Precip doesn’t get here anyway but worth keeping an eye on. Boundary has implications for the next wave as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: True, but not enough. Precip doesn’t get here anyway but worth keeping an eye on. Click back a few runs and the look is wildly different for such a short lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Whoa my...lots of pieces jumping around here for the weekend! Good luck figuring out the final solution...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Whoa my...lots of pieces jumping around here for the weekend! Good luck figuring out the final solution...lol Don’t like where this run is headed. Nothing on the weekend. Follow up looks like dog crap. Familiar territory but unpleasant. Will change for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Don’t like where this run is headed. Nothing on the weekend. Follow up looks like dog crap. Familiar territory but unpleasant. Will change for sure Yeah, not a good look but at the same time guidance did a complete 180 for the weekend at a super short lead today. I'm gonna let things evolve for the next couple days. Probably the best thing to do at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Don’t like where this run is headed. Nothing on the weekend. Follow up looks like dog crap. Familiar territory but unpleasant. Will change for sure Doesn't have to be unpleasant if ya scroll through the previous cycles and look at the wild array of solutions! I feel like one of the mental challenges of this is hobby is not letting a bad run in long range get ya down...I think bad runs always fuel worse-case scenario fears, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 After just looking over the EPS and GEFS (12z and 18z) there are some pretty significant changes at 500s for our weekend system. Actually has my interest somewhat now. Let's see where it goes over the next couple of days. Eta: Meant the GFS op runs not the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Doesn't have to be unpleasant if ya scroll through the previous cycles and look at the wild array of solutions! I feel like one of the mental challenges of this is hobby is not letting a bad run in long range get ya down...I think bad runs always fuel worse-case scenario fears, lol Agree. But man it’s trying sometimes. If it was December I wouldn’t shed a tear. But clock is racing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Don’t like where this run is headed. Nothing on the weekend. Follow up looks like dog crap. Familiar territory but unpleasant. Will change for sure You have to have a bleeding ulcer with the way you look at op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Birmingham, Alabama getting 18" of snow is always a good sign for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Birmingham, Alabama getting 18" of snow is always a good sign for us. This was not sarcastic... light snow in DC at hr 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Storm's (2nd one) still on the map. Good enough for me. Notable this run is the slower progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Agree. But man it’s trying sometimes. If it was December I wouldn’t shed a tear. But clock is racing. I heat ya...It's like watching your football team being down by two scores with 7 minyes left...and knowing ya gotta make the most of every opportunity, lol And model run volatility just makes being patient even harder! But, steady as she goes...we could be heading into our best position of the winter; buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Pretty agonizing run verbatim but the storm is still there. Huge hit for the deep south lol. 37” in Tuscaloosa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Storm's (2nd one) still on the map. Good enough for me. Notable this run is the slower progression. Models could be locked and loaded or showing an epic disaster but it doesn't change our odds at taking a nice long ride on the failboat yet. We have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Models could be locked and loaded or showing an epic disaster but it doesn't change our odds at taking a nice long ride on the failboat yet. We have that going for us. We still have the toaster of failure as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Literally laughed out loud at the 37 in. of snow in Birmingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, yoda said: We still have the toaster of failure as well I save that for the short range. No sense ending it all if we're still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I see the mid-level jet overpowering and the whole SE ridge flexing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I see the mid-level jet overpowering and the whole SE ridge flexing north. For Gods sake man! Speak English. AL just got 37 inches of snow and I just drank a quart of vodka and had a bowl of chili. I’m a powder keg holding a lit match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Pretty agonizing run verbatim but the storm is still there. Huge hit for the deep south lol. 37” in Tuscaloosa? If we post every snowmap from every model run (particularly for next week), this thread won't last the week! I mean...I don't see the sense in torturing ourselves this way tbh. Way too much goin' on right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I save that for the short range. No sense ending it all if we're still in the game. True... but I meant I have saved an actual image of a toaster with the word failure on it. Believe it came from Forky. Can't find what happened to the salad shooter of success though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Gfs op showed us the disaster fail lol. North south north south lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs op showed us the disaster fail lol. North south north south lol. Can we just take the average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 alabama deserves that 37 inches more than we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs op showed us the disaster fail lol. North south north south lol. That's why you just hug the Fv3 and break out the it's happening gif. And also why looking past this weekend might not be a good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 18z Fv3 had the weenie plugin installed. 2 for 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: alabama deserves that 37 inches more than we do Agree. Would make for some great headlines. That’s like 8 years worth of snowfall for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Lol at the 18z gfs. Cutter, miss south, cutter ,miss south. That's how we do it here in the mid Atlantic....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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