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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji

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Yum053BB141-CF70-4024-821C-4952F3752C1D.thumb.png.dc32f088a495046b40571d2218ca14a0.png

Guidance finally shifting the trough east. Blocking. Lots of chances during the transition week before this too but it’s way too complicate to key on and one wave. The weekend affects the storm Monday which affects Wednesday which affects the weekend after.... but there is wave after wave with highs around and cold lurking and the mjo and soi in favorable phases now. I’ll take my chances. 

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This is all nicely following the progression of the Pac forcing along with the expected movement in the MJO. 

Models are seeing it now finally. 

Would not take much for the 19th to the 21 st to trend colder. For us here in this forum. 

When you watch the last 25 model runs the trends are impressive and maybe still trending 

IMHO, Highly speculative of course, but if we get the bigtime -NAO and following the typical progressions you could enter a window where a intense coastal storm could form and effect the Mid Atlantic in early March. We have not had any of those yet. Talking about a BM storm and a colder version than what we normally see in these parts for early March. 

 

 

 

and here as well  ..... ( bottom animation ) 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Significant changes on the storm for this upcoming weekend on the 12z EURO. From a low in Indiana at 120 (00z) to a piece of energy sitting over Kansas at 108 (12z)

Wonder if the boundary is going to shift South and track it at a lower lattitude 

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Significant changes on the storm for this upcoming weekend on the 12z EURO. From a low in Indiana at 120 (00z) to a piece of energy sitting over Kansas at 108 (12z)

perhaps these op changes will be more prevalent as they calculate the effects of the expected changes. 

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

he is the best PBP guy especially when things look good...always thought that...the best Jerry

Its funny how I've come to enjoy them during good periods...

Tells us just what we need to know to chart a path to victory (or defeat), but my glass is half full today so....

Now that weve got stuff coming from the south, it may be a matter of time until it happens.  We all need it for sanity's sake.

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I like the multi wave/boundary progression on the euro. Light snow verbatim but there's 2 embedded features that have potential. I can see how this misses south too. Not saying I think it will but these setups are narrow. Nice new development on guidance today and fits the things that PSU has been talking about IRT MJO/forcing etc. Models are in fact playing catchup. Not a surprise. At least not to me. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I like the multi wave/boundary progression on the euro. Light snow verbatim but there's 2 embedded features that have potential. I can see how this misses south too. Not saying I think it will but these setups are narrow. Nice new development on guidance today and fits the things that PSU has been talking about IRT MJO/forcing etc. Models are in fact playing catchup. Not a surprise. At least not to me. 

Yes...like the trends we've seen in the past day or so.  To be honest, I wasn't even looking at or thinking about this weekend, focusing more on middle of next week.  But this is quite a change now in the next few/several days.

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yes...like the trends we've seen in the past day or so.  To be honest, I wasn't even looking at or thinking about this weekend, focusing more on middle of next week.  But this is quite a change now in the next few/several days.

agree.  although now I am wondering how potentially Satnight/Sunday will affect Tuesday being that it all connected.  probably overthinking it

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