BristowWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Total precip on the GEFS. Pretty good signal for an active period. How much of that is rain before the 8th lol 1.75 of it...just details. This is not the pattern you are looking for...move along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 18 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Total precip on the GEFS. Pretty good signal for an active period. How much of that is rain before the 8th lol It's actually really spread out through out the 16 days. About 1"qpf through the 7th. 1.5" qpf after. The point I was trying to make is that the SS is really active and later after about day 8 or 9 we could have plenty of chances lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I'm done with tracking patterns 10 days in the future; not saying this one won't work, but I'm going to log off this website, uninstall my weather app, and see what things look like in 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Imagine the Earth rotates faster and slower at different times. Why did you make me come into this thread? I'm enjoying boo-thang time and it was like a bat signal went off. Shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said: I'm done with tracking patterns 10 days in the future; not saying this one won't work, but I'm going to log off this website, uninstall my weather app, and see what things look like in 2 weeks Just click on the winter 2019-2020 thread when you come back. Speculation outperforms reality more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just click on the winter 2019-2020 thread when you come back. Speculation outperforms reality more often than not.Yep lol. How much longer before this thread is a dumpster fire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, Ji said: 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Just click on the winter 2019-2020 thread when you come back. Speculation outperforms reality more often than not. Yep lol. How much longer before this thread is a dumpster fire? Pretty sure you know when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 38 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said: I'm done with tracking patterns 10 days in the future; not saying this one won't work, but I'm going to log off this website, uninstall my weather app, and see what things look like in 2 weeks Ya might wanna just peak in here a week from now...if it's gonna fall apart, I'd imagine we'd start seeing that by then, lol But hopefully this will be the real deal this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Yep lol. How much longer before this thread is a dumpster fire?I'm done Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Both the 0z gefs and eps seriously degraded the -NAO signal and so both fail to ever get the trough into the east and reestablish the eastern ridge. The snow mean on both also increased. Looking at the individual members as to why, there is a complete split within both ensembles. Looking at day 10-15 about half the members have blocking and an eastern trough and they are very snowy with coastals galore. The other half have no block and a huge eastern ridge and storms cutting to Green Bay and rain all the way to Canada. There is no in between. The glass half full view is that burried within a crappy mean is the fact that half still think this is going the right way. The glass half empty view is suddenly after majority support for blocking as it gets closer to being inside the realistic time period we start to see divergence not convergence on the blocking and this is exactly how it fell apart last time 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Both the 0z gefs and eps seriously degraded the -NAO signal and so both fail to ever get the trough into the east and reestablish the eastern ridge. The snow mean on both also increased. Looking at the individual members as to why, there is a complete split within both ensembles. Looking at day 10-15 about half the members have blocking and an eastern trough and they are very snowy with coastals galore. The other half have no block and a huge eastern ridge and storms cutting to Green Bay and rain all the way to Canada. There is no in between. The glass half full view is that burried within a crappy mean is the fact that half still think this is going the right way. The glass half empty view is suddenly after majority support for blocking as it gets closer to being inside the realistic time period we start to see divergence not convergence on the blocking and this is exactly how it fell apart last time 2 weeks ago. We need a digital -NAO thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: We need a digital -NAO thread. Lol. I don’t want to be too negative. They didn’t lose it completely. And there are a lot of snow solutions in the members. But there is a lot more disagreement on whether we get enough blocking to get the trough to cut under into the easy than there was yesterday. So it was a step back imo. Hopefully just a hiccup. Curious what the mjo output looks like when it updates. Might shows a loop through 6 which would explain the step back last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 That was quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That was quick It was average. It usually last 2 days before flipping to crap. Don't worry.. in a few days it will be epic again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Wasn't particularly enthused with the overnight runs. The issues we are seeing are most notable with the GEFS. Below we have the 5 day mean for the last 3 00Z runs. AS you notice with the one directly below (The Jan 29th run of the 00z) the higher heights are centered over GL (-NAO) with some slight height builds into the SE. Also notice the higher heights over the gulf of Alaska. But notice the next two runs. We are seeing a migration of the higher heights into the WAR zone (western atlantic ridging) from the NAO domain until the final frame where we seeing higher heights extending from the deep southwest all the way up the east coast with a much weaker -NAO reflection. We really don't want to see that. To add insult to injury we are seeing the higher heights in the gulf of Alaska shifting westward as well. Again, not a good look especially if we lose the blocking over Greenland. And.... to kick a dog when it's down we are now seeing the GEFS bring troughing into the gulf of Alaska at the end of its run as well. ***(On a side note we did see the snowfall means increase on both the GEFS and the EPS so there is that ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 On a positive note the GEFS still does see some potential despite the 500 mb means. Come on lucky number 17. eta: EPS roughly breaks down to 1/3 members show 6+ inches (DC/Balt region) through 15 days and 1/3 with less then 2 inches with the remaining 1/3 falling somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Sorry in advance @leesburg 04. There is really nothing to like with the 06Z GEFS. Will just leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Sorry in advance @leesburg 04. There is really nothing to like with the 06Z GEFS. Will just leave it at that. well, I was really hopeful we'd get into a true winter pattern over the next couple weeks, but I guess we'll have to wait until April for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 Yep lol. How much longer before this thread is a dumpster fire?Answer: a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 Lol. I don’t want to be too negative. They didn’t lose it completely. And there are a lot of snow solutions in the members. But there is a lot more disagreement on whether we get enough blocking to get the trough to cut under into the easy than there was yesterday. So it was a step back imo. Hopefully just a hiccup. Curious what the mjo output looks like when it updates. Might shows a loop through 6 which would explain the step back last night. Isotherm said the gfs handling of the mjo is complete bs. So until it gets a handle...gefs meltdowns might be common placeIn other news....winter is over. In fact..everytime @bobchill goes to bed...it ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Isotherm said the gfs handling of the mjo is complete bs. So until it gets a handle...gefs meltdowns might be common place In other news....winter is over. In fact..everytime @bobchill goes to bed...it ends Really wouldn't overly concern myself with what the models have to say beyond 10 days. They haven't been exactly stellar this winter. Originally just looked at the 500mb means on the 06Z GEFS and to put it bluntly they took a big step backwards. But digging a little deeper and I see we are having some conflicting signals showing up. Not going to dive into each ensemble member to see why we are seeing this but suffice it to say I think the model is battling itself on how it wants to move forward. And it could very well be MJO related. eta: Had to laugh at your mention of GEFS meltdowns as if it was everyone else that has them. If we can just keep you from melting down we would be golden in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 30 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 hours ago, Ji said: Yep lol. How much longer before this thread is a dumpster fire? Answer: a few hours You have to have stamina this winter. Will test you to the bones ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: You have to have stamina this winter. Will test you to the bones ! Those of us who meltdown without snow have to have stamina every winter in the MA. At least this winter is better than last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 i hope it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 41 minutes ago, Ji said: Isotherm said the gfs handling of the mjo is complete bs. So until it gets a handle...gefs meltdowns might be common place In other news....winter is over. In fact..everytime @bobchill goes to bed...it ends I'm going out on a limb but your house will get the remaining 5 inches necessary for it to be a normal winter snowfall wise. I will go out on another limb and say that you won't be too happy about that. So it is written... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm going out on a limb but your house will get the remaining 5 inches necessary for it to be a normal winter snowfall wise. I will go out on another limb and say that you won't be too happy about that. So it is written... So shall it be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Snow storms disappear and re-appear in the 6-10 day time frame. Noise Pattern changes disappear and re-appear in the 8-14 day time frame. Noise I'll keep the faith in a change to a favorable pattern at least for a few more forecast cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Snow storms disappear and re-appear in the 6-10 day time frame. Noise Pattern changes disappear and re-appear in the 8-14 day time frame. Noise I'll keep the faith in a change to a favorable pattern at least for a few more forecast cycles -NAOs appear in the LR then fade to nothing inside of a week. Not noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Weird that the EPS would hold out on a -nao only to cave in the last 24 hrs only to flip right back to the original look. GEPS never carved the trough into the east. Guess we should have been paying more attention to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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