AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Really strong +AO in the short term here, it's amazing, the strength of this -PNA for the next 14 days. El Nino can probably be declared gone, although it happened not naturally if you look at the subsurface. The Day 15 pattern is skewing toward European-warmth/NorthAmerican-warmth. As soon as the Stratosphere went cold, the PV really intensified. I wonder if the previous Stratosphere warming (Dec 17-Feb 8) had effects on holding a -NAO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 594dm ridge near the Bahamas Euro Day 9. I do wonder if this will trend toward the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 59 minutes ago, Ji said: Best eps of year. Super 5050....se ridge beat down...very wintry starting next week. Very cold towards end of run. Soi and mjo doing their magic Vacation seems to agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6z GFS comes out in 2 pieces next week. One on PD rain. 2nd on Tuesday snow but not much wiggle room . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 6z GFS comes out in 2 pieces next week. One on PD rain. 2nd on Tuesday snow but not much wiggle room . Timing is just out of sync this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Overnight GEFS were beautiful. Even tries to establish an EPO and weak (somewhat displaced) PNA ridge in tandem with the neg NAO and 50/50. SE ridge beatdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 594dm ridge near the Bahamas Euro Day 9. I do wonder if this will trend toward the coast. Stay vigilant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Everything is on track. The last 48 hours has been a steady step up in the pattern looks and last night hit the warp speed accelerator. Gonna get busy in here soon. It’s hilarious... the soi tanked yesterday and the mjo reached the threshold of phase 8 and suddenly the guidance adjusts. What’s been amazing is their inability to identify and properly factor in the pacific tropical forcing at range all winter. It’s as if past day 7-10 the guidance would revert to “what the forcing should look like” given the sst anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Everything is on track. The last 48 hours has been a steady step up in the pattern looks and last night hit the warp speed accelerator. Gonna get busy in here soon. It’s hilarious... the soi tanked yesterday and the mjo reached the threshold of phase 8 and suddenly the guidance adjusts. What’s been amazing is their inability to identify and properly factor in the pacific tropical forcing at range all winter. It’s as if past day 7-10 the guidance would revert to “what the forcing should look like” given the sst anomalies. With this said why are the ops still just meh in general and even certain guidance continuing the wet not white looks? Lag? Or just ops being ops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Eps mean jumped up again. 8” in DC. 6.5 after this event today. 8” after today northern 1/3. 14 members miss us to the south with a snow event. 27 flush DC hits almost every member has some snow after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: With this said why are the ops still just meh in general and even certain guidance continuing the wet not white looks? Lag? Or just ops being ops? What ops are you talking about. At 0z the gfs, euro, and gem all gave us snow day 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: What ops are you talking about. At 0z the gfs, euro, and gem all gave us snow day 7-10. 6z. Off run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Fv3 looks like PD2 lite. People forget that changed to sleet all the way into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 looks like PD2 lite. People forget that changed to sleet all the way into PA. Be safe and well today. Hope things go well for your son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Be safe and well today. Hope things go well for your son Thanks. Appointment is tomorrow. Wish it was today, snow I can handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I’m trolling DT on Twitter...good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 Fv3 looks like PD2 lite. People forget that changed to sleet all the way into PA. I don't forget. It ruined the storm for me. I bet I got 2 inches of liquid that was sleet. Instead of 46 inches...I only got 28 or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 With this said why are the ops still just meh in general and even certain guidance continuing the wet not white looks? Lag? Or just ops being ops?Ops just being ops I guess. Big lag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’m trolling DT on Twitter...good times. I need to follow you - what's your handle (if you don't mind letting everyone know). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 looks like PD2 lite. People forget that changed to sleet all the way into PA. I don't forget. It ruined the storm for me. I bet I got 2 inches of liquid that was sleet. Instead of 46 inches...I only got 28 or something Ok lol. No one got that much other then really high elevations because to get that much qpf was likely too much WAA and a warm layer was guaranteed. Places that stayed all snow only got about 20-30” also. And our snow lasted longer because of the sleet. In early March I drove down to northern VA from Penn State and the 18” up there was long gone but there was still a glacier on the ground in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: I need to follow you - what's your handle (if you don't mind letting everyone know). Psuhoffman. I know not very diverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 psu and bob are almost making me get caught up in this cycle again. I hate you both for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 He is going to bust so bad. He said it’s a bad pattern the next 2 weeks not just for the mid Atlantic but northeast and New England too. Forget the fact the northeast is getting a snow/ice storm NOW. I don’t know where the couple of threats day 7-9 and 11-12 are going to hit. Some runs go south. They could shift north. But there is a limit to how far north. I would say this storm now is kind of the northern bound to where those go if the trough amplified too far west again. I find it extremely unlikely that no one in the east all the way to New England gets no snow the next 2 weeks...even ignoring the snow falling now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Psuhoffman. I know not very diverse. membengal for me - following you and eager to go back and look for the DT trolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He is going to bust so bad. He said it’s a bad pattern the next 2 weeks not just for the mid Atlantic but northeast and New England too. Forget the fact the northeast is getting a snow/ice storm NOW. I don’t know where the couple of threats day 7-9 and 11-12 are going to hit. Some runs go south. They could shift north. But there is a limit to how far north. I would say this storm now is kind of the northern bound to where those go if the trough amplified too far west again. I find it extremely unlikely that no one in the east will the way to New England gets no snow the next 2 weeks...even ignoring the snow falling now. Lol Weenie handbook page 62....when JB calls for an avg or below avg winter (I know, rare) we assuredly have a solid winter. When DT cancels winter midseason we go on a epic run of cold and stormy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ji said: Ops just being ops I guess. Big lag Plot twist....not all of that is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 EURO is hinting at something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He is going to bust so bad. He said it’s a bad pattern the next 2 weeks not just for the mid Atlantic but northeast and New England too. Forget the fact the northeast is getting a snow/ice storm NOW. I don’t know where the couple of threats day 7-9 and 11-12 are going to hit. Some runs go south. They could shift north. But there is a limit to how far north. I would say this storm now is kind of the northern bound to where those go if the trough amplified too far west again. I find it extremely unlikely that no one in the east will the way to New England gets no snow the next 2 weeks...even ignoring the snow falling now. Lol Fascinating to see the continued excellent trends on the EPS . Not just a better means, but the location and orientation of the mean itself. May not mean a thing but I like it , hope it continues. The mean on the EPS where the heaviest snows are are to fall are also the same areas where the CFS has the coldest temps , day 10 to 15 and to day 20 as well. Looking this morning on the CPCNAO ensembles and there is more hope for a -NAO. Also, the over night GFS made a move to that as well. The EPS is the most aggressive I think. Love the trend down now with the SOI This AM Daily contribution to SOI calculation -19.02 OK this is Newark, NJ but there is a need to watch this period regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He is going to bust so bad. He said it’s a bad pattern the next 2 weeks not just for the mid Atlantic but northeast and New England too. Forget the fact the northeast is getting a snow/ice storm NOW. I don’t know where the couple of threats day 7-9 and 11-12 are going to hit. Some runs go south. They could shift north. But there is a limit to how far north. I would say this storm now is kind of the northern bound to where those go if the trough amplified too far west again. I find it extremely unlikely that no one in the east all the way to New England gets no snow the next 2 weeks...even ignoring the snow falling now. Lol Going completely against a day 10 model forecast this winter is probably the best bet you can make.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I stayed all snow for PD2. And still recorded 'only' 21 inches in Front Royal at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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