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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We can snow with a -pna. It’s not the easiest way but late in winter it becomes more possible. 

Yes,  Don S was mentioning something similar as the wavelenghts shorten the role of the PNA is not as important in late Feb.  Eh, OK. 

I actualy think we improve the looks out West in time , IF IF IF the MJO proceeds. 

You know I wonder to the role of the Northwest Atlantic and all this wave breaking as we are getting some help there which fits HM's posting on the NAO.       

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

e14 please 

then we prepare for March 62 followed by March 58. 

If I put my Jb weenie goggles on I can see Feb 1994 this week to Feb 2003 next week, to March 62 week 3 to March 58 week 4.  Then I will be done with winter and spring has my permission. 

Seems like you would prefer e13.

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

e14 please 

then we prepare for March 62 followed by March 58. 

If I put my Jb weenie goggles on I can see Feb 1994 this week to Feb 2003 next week, to March 62 week 3 to March 58 week 4.  Then I will be done with winter and spring has my permission. 

Can we mix in a March of 93 as well ?!?!

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Very hard to capture timing in a single panel with the large spread but this one does a good job showing that d8-10 is far from a locked in west track. Many good tracks in the mix. 

ds3K4cZ.png

I'm kinda feelin this one... One of my rules of thumb with going from a so-so pattern to a decent hit is when a strong west track precedes it. Has to be strong though to reshuffle upper level heights. A weak storm won't do it. This rule of thumb rarely works when trying to go from a crappy shutout pattern to a good storm. Not the case this time. We're in an "almost good enough" pattern but need something to push it to the next level. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

e14 please 

then we prepare for March 62 followed by March 58. 

If I put my Jb weenie goggles on I can see Feb 1994 this week to Feb 2003 next week, to March 62 week 3 to March 58 week 4.  Then I will be done with winter and spring has my permission. 

Jokes aside... we're prob just 5 days away from knowing whether we can break out the it's happening gif or not. I'm almost ready to break it out now...

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very hard to capture timing in a single panel with the large spread but this one does a good job showing that d8-10 is far from a locked in west track. Many good tracks in the mix. 

ds3K4cZ.png

I'm kinda feelin this one... One of my rules of thumb with going from a so-so pattern to a decent hit is when a strong west track precedes it. Has to be strong though to reshuffle upper level heights. A weak storm won't do it. This rule of thumb rarely works when trying to go from a crappy shutout pattern to a good storm. Not the case this time. We're in an "almost good enough" pattern but need something to push it to the next level. 

So are we looking for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm this week to be that potential catalyst?

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the whole setup can easily be all snow or even miss us south. Too early to know. All hinges on what appears to be a pretty wound up rainstorm before it. 

Eps favors a colder/souther/frozener solution and it's under day 10. We'll prob see many different op looks over the coming days.

My biggest question regardless of track/ptype is does it come out in one big piece or multiple waves? Either is possible and both come with pros and cons. One prediction I'm confident in is it's going to get very busy in this thread this week.

yea, we'll need a better vort pass than what's shown, but it's not impossibly north.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So are we looking for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm this week to be that potential catalyst?

Yep. Check this out for a visual. Both the gfs and euro have a pretty strong closed upper level low tracking north us. It's over Ohio in this panel.

 

gfs_z500a_nhem_24.png

 

Check out what happens in the wake as it tracks into far eastern canada

gfs_z500a_nhem_32.png

 

See what happens to heights over the eastern half of the conus? Below normal heights and "downhill" orientation with the isobars. This sets up suppressive flow for the next wave. Plenty of cold air and storm track is shifted southward. If the first storm is a weak kitten it won't leave much if anything in its wake. Even as is the gfs still doesn't get it done all the way but you can easily track "what happens next" behind the wound up midweek storm as leads shorten. 

 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

Someone on another site just posted the Euro MJO and it looks good like the CFS.  So far the good looks continue. And, it appears the the ECM gets to phase on 1  on Feb 12 th. at an amplitude of slightly more than 1. 

I think that is ahead of schedule. It then advances to phase 1 .  I did see the crazy orbits off the chart are gone.  But maybe thats not a real issue as long as we get to move through phase 8 and 1 at even a decent orbit of greater than 1 . 

There is also no sling shot back to phase 5. Like earlier in the winter. 

Will be interested to see the EPS overnight for clues to next week. 

  

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very hard to capture timing in a single panel with the large spread but this one does a good job showing that d8-10 is far from a locked in west track. Many good tracks in the mix. 

ds3K4cZ.png

I'm kinda feelin this one... One of my rules of thumb with going from a so-so pattern to a decent hit is when a strong west track precedes it. Has to be strong though to reshuffle upper level heights. A weak storm won't do it. This rule of thumb rarely works when trying to go from a crappy shutout pattern to a good storm. Not the case this time. We're in an "almost good enough" pattern but need something to push it to the next level. 

Not really pertinent, but e20 is an odd distribution.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

You know, this kind of leaves me nervous.  Too much wandering around in the really low amplitudes or even the COD.

I agree .   Unless it corrects to a higher amplitude in a few days.  

Because I too am a bit on edge when I see the orbit so close to the COD

To get a faster and more meaningful change you need a higher amp or orbit.

I guess we see what tomorrow brings.  

I thought psu stated the CFS had a higher amp 

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dallen7908

dallen7908

Posted
Posted

Certainly encouraging signals; could this weekend's storm serve as the 50-50 for next week's storm? 

Mixed feelings about next Tuesday as I'll be in New England.   Have missed the last two significant snows here .. why not go for three in a row?  

My snow chase isn't going so well so far ... I'll miss this Wednesday's New England storm because I'm still here, will arrive in time for the rainstorm on Saturday (signing up for the moonlight snow shoe walk that evening may not have been a good idea), and should return to DC before next week's hypothetical storm reaches NE but after it brushes or smashes DC. 

That said, I'd be ok with being stuck in northern NH for an extra day or two as you deal with the big one.  ... and if my return flight is delayed maybe I'll experience it up there instead. 

 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, frd said:

Someone on another site just posted the Euro MJO and it looks good like the CFS.  So far the good looks continue. And, it appears the the ECM gets to phase on 1  on Feb 12 th. at an amplitude of slightly more than 1. 

I think that is ahead of schedule. It then advances to phase 1 .  I did see the crazy orbits off the chart are gone.  But maybe thats not a real issue as long as we get to move through phase 8 and 1 at even a decent orbit of greater than 1 . 

There is also no sling shot back to phase 5. Like earlier in the winter. 

Will be interested to see the EPS overnight for clues to next week. 

  

There is a euro mjo update other than the one that comes out at 9am?

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

COD after 8 or low amplitude in 8/1 in Feb would be fine I think. 

Just my humble opinion here... I think the attention to the MJO this year is somewhat to alottawhat overblown. Not discounting the high amp warm phases and the trouble it has caused but there's more to it than that. No single oscillation or teleconnection drives the hemispheric or continental bus. Anything but a high amp warm phase is fine at any time during any winter because other drivers are equally as important. 

The SSW stuff this year takes the absolute f'n cake. All these previous years where weenies would have sold their soul for it but didn't happen and this year it happens nearly textbook perfect and 1)nothing goes as expected and 2) its blamed for our problems. LOL. Oh the irony... it's palpable.

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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Did Europe or anyone benefit from the SSW this year? 

Saw somewhere that the return of ENSO-like conditions could lessen the impact of the favorable MJO phases we are forecast to enter.  That would be an ironic ending to winter and unwelcome support for your point. 

The SSW is artificial just like other things. 

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just my humble opinion here... I think the attention to the MJO this year is somewhat to alottawhat overblown. Not discounting the high amp warm phases and the trouble it has caused but there's more to it than that. No single oscillation or teleconnection drives the hemispheric or continental bus. Anything but a high amp warm phase is fine at any time during any winter because other drivers are equally as important. 

The SSW stuff this year takes the absolute f'n cake. All these previous years where weenies would have sold their soul for it but didn't happen and this year it happens nearly textbook perfect and 1)nothing goes as expected and 2) its blamed for our problems. LOL. Oh the irony... it's palpable.

Honestly, this is the first year I’ve tried to learn something about the MJO so I’m a self described MJO newbie.  It does seem like the prevailing thought is that the MJO has ‘controlled’ this winter...maybe I didn’t pay attention in other years or glazed past it, but did we talk so much about MJO in the past? 

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