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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji

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4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

just looked at the gfs...next weekend has a rain to snow look/potential.  maybe that it'll be the start of a better pattern to close out winter.

I think the whole setup can easily be all snow or even miss us south. Too early to know. All hinges on what appears to be a pretty wound up rainstorm before it. 

Eps favors a colder/souther/frozener solution and it's under day 10. We'll prob see many different op looks over the coming days.

My biggest question regardless of track/ptype is does it come out in one big piece or multiple waves? Either is possible and both come with pros and cons. One prediction I'm confident in is it's going to get very busy in this thread this week.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My biggest question regardless of track/ptype is does it come out in one big piece or multiple waves? Either is possible and both come with pros and cons. One prediction I'm confident in is it's going to get very busy in this thread this week.

 

Busy = :clap::snowing:

 

and more coffee,  maybe even reach for the      :pepsi:

 

 

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Don’t worry about the exact track that far out on the gfs. It also won’t handle cad well. It had PD2 as a big rainstorm 7 days out, even at penn state where I was at the time. I remember bumming around with my friends who were still in the meteorology program and one of the professors was saying that’s not going to be rain. Something about the epo and 50/50 lol. 

The key is getting a wave to eject before the se ridge has too much time to recover, and the strength of any NAO 50/50 combo. There are lots of ensemble members that suppress the wave south of us even. There is disagreement on those features. But the flow is way less amplified in the west next week and more suppressive so it’s not as bad a setup as this week was for a big storm. 

ETA: we could even get back to back hits if the first wave ejects day 8/9 and suppresses the flow behind it for the next wave. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs just produced the weenie run of the year. Lol

2EAAB903-6C52-44BA-A773-CD750C6DC6BB.thumb.png.164e35f4ea1355ee18c8e24a5a9b8d02.png

 

Like I said yesterday run to run consistency and overall improvements are the keys to watch for.  Three days now in a row with an overall better look. 

And, it is not often you will see those light white greys move South and get close to DC.  Impressive.  

The look too follows HM's  animation of the Pac jet as well,  and it also follows what wxUSA mentioned that the look in the Pac out in time appeared decent,  with just a bit of tweaking.  

 

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