The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

One thing I will say. Slow that 50/50 down or speed that trough drop by a day and we might very well be in business. Just don't see that happening at this time though.

I brought up the Saturday deal yesterday after looking at the 12z GEFS. Despite what the 6z GFS suggests, its probably gone for us. It tries to do a wonky transfer but given where the parent low is, a lot would have to change for it to work out at our latitude. IMO the real period of interest is beyond that, probably just after PD.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Thanks.  I have a stormvista account.  That's where I got it.  What's with the condescending tone? 

Also, jb actually mentioned it it in his latest,update.  

As far as the accuracy of off run eps, I've followed,them over the last month and they do tend to sniff out changes in the 00z 12z runs....from what I've noticed at least.

I don't even know who you are dude. I simply mentioned that metfan only parrots what others say. That's what he does. He is a nuisance.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't even know who you are dude. I simply mentioned that metfan only parrots what others say. That's what he does. He is a nuisance.

Stirring up the s*** again. What a trouble maker you are. 

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Stirring up the s*** again. What a trouble maker you are. 

These people don't even know the magnitude of my bitterness. 

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I brought up the Saturday deal yesterday after looking at the 12z GEFS. Despite what the 6z GFS suggests, its probably gone for us. It tries to do a wonky transfer but given where the parent low is, a lot would have to change for it to work out at our latitude. IMO the real period of interest is beyond that, probably just after PD.

Though I haven't been posting I have been following the long range. And to be honest, though I can see us scoring some snow I am not particularly enthused with where the models have trended. Now I could very well see them flip on a dime with some of the things I see, maybe even at mid range, but until then my expectations are somewhat low.

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't even know who you are dude. I simply mentioned that metfan only parrots what others say. That's what he does. He is a nuisance.

Pretty sure Buckeye and Ji are the same person 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though I haven't been posting I have been following the long range. And to be honest, though I can see us scoring some snow I am not particularly enthused with where the models have trended. Now I could very well see them flip on a dime with some of the things I see, maybe even at mid range, but until then my expectations are somewhat low.

So is it the lack of blocking and no confidence in the long range models showing snow? 

I am concerned ,as  I mentioned earlier, by the AO and the NAO. 

Plus, when things go a certain way for a LONG time, such as Midwest snows and rain on us, even after it  is 5 degrees what is to say we get  a great window late month. 

Honestly a pros and cons list would at this time would be equal and in that case you have to weight it in favor of less snow.    

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though I haven't been posting I have been following the long range. And to be honest, though I can see us scoring some snow I am not particularly enthused with where the models have trended. Now I could very well see them flip on a dime with some of the things I see, maybe even at mid range, but until then my expectations are somewhat low.

Thanks

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I brought up the Saturday deal yesterday after looking at the 12z GEFS. Despite what the 6z GFS suggests, its probably gone for us. It tries to do a wonky transfer but given where the parent low is, a lot would have to change for it to work out at our latitude. IMO the real period of interest is beyond that, probably just after PD.

Agree but sometimes when the upper trough and energy is digging in behind like that something does develop behind the initial cutter. But it’s a convoluted setup that models won’t have any chance of nailing at range. 

The weekend setup is opposite this one in that regard with a lifting trough to our west so the frozen threat is on the front. Next weekend it’s on the back. But that’s a low probability. 

Like you said the best threat showing right now is the week after next weekend with several waves and some runs suggesting a PD2 type of look, and enough suppressed solutions to think maybe this time isn’t a head fake. 

Imo the 50/50 NAO look will be critical. there is a see saw on guidance with that. Runs with blocking suppress the boundary more.  That’s our best chance. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't even know who you are dude. I simply mentioned that metfan only parrots what others say. That's what he does. He is a nuisance.

Bitter 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Bitter 

Cat Man is one sour puss.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though I haven't been posting I have been following the long range. And to be honest, though I can see us scoring some snow I am not particularly enthused with where the models have trended. Now I could very well see them flip on a dime with some of the things I see, maybe even at mid range, but until then my expectations are somewhat low.

Lol your usually way more optimistic than me. Unusual turn here. Makes me wonder if I’m relying on the pacific forcing and model error too much. 

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

Hey back end snow worked for us once this year already maybe we can make it twice @ 144 on gfs

[aldie 22]

How is it in the 30s here when it's snowy in Seattle...temp sensors must be wrong 

[psuhoffman]

@showmethesnow

Remember back in mid January when I was deb supreme even though models were still spitting out some snowy runs...because I saw the expected soi crash reversing and the mjo amplifying into warm phases and hints the h5 was degrading. 

I guess I’m doing the opposite now. I see the guidance heading the right way through day 7/8. Then I see how they become ambiguous and kind of weird looking in the long range. But I see the soi and mjo saying “cold” and so I’m kind of thinking the guidance will adjust. I’d rather have the forcing on my side than the models day 10+. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

Hey back end snow worked for us once this year already maybe we can make it twice @ 144 on gfs

This would say it’s worth keeping one eye on. But the crap antecedent airmass and ridging in front means we neen an absolutely perfect progression to get something on the back with a bombing secondary.  It’s rare. 

What we really needed was this weeks airmass in front of next weeks trough progression. So many ways to screw up our snow!

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

So is it the lack of blocking and no confidence in the long range models showing snow? 

I am concerned ,as  I mentioned earlier, by the AO and the NAO. 

Plus, when things go a certain way for a LONG time, such as Midwest snows and rain on us, even after it  is 5 degrees what is to say we get  a great window late month. 

Honestly a pros and cons list would at this time would be equal and in that case you have to weight it in favor of less snow.    

It's a multitude of things fdr. And what I have seen within the models this winter is like Bill Murray in Ground Hog Day. Just the same old crap. Decent to very good looks in the long range continually degrade until the reality is they are mediocre at best. And that is exactly what I am seeing once again with the models. Now hopefully PSU is right in his thoughts with the SOI and MJO. And maybe the blocking and the 50/50 are the real deal. But until I actually see it in reality it is just another fantasy, one of many this year. I don't know, this winter had so much promise heading in and this is where we now sit. So maybe I am just bitter like CAPE.  

 

[psuhoffman]

Nice gfs run. Gets 3 waves under us in the long range. I’ll take my chances. 

[showmethesnow]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol your usually way more optimistic than me. Unusual turn here. Makes me wonder if I’m relying on the pacific forcing and model error too much. 

Just really haven't liked with what I have been seeing with the trends on the models for the last week or so. I hope you are right about the MJO and the SOI flipping the PAC shortly otherwise I don't like where we are sitting even with a 50/50. Short of seeing strong western based -NAO along with that 50/50 the western extent of the troughing suggests cutter after cutter. Even if we do see a flip I wonder how much of a delay we are talking. Think I saw you mention 7 days? Really starting to run out of time here.

[jaydreb]

Looks like a decent signal on GEFS betwen Day 10 and Day 12.  

Weenie map through Day 13.  

 

[Bob Chill]

I'm with psu on the next couple weeks to maybe a full month. Shorter wavelengths and tighter spacing in Feb changes the storm landscape. A shutout pattern is always a deathblow but even flawed in Feb can work  and early March too. Imho- we're more likely to have a good to great pattern than a continuation of what we have now. The PNA oscillates far more often than locking in for a month+. I strongly believe the PNA will shift out of hostile mode this month. 

I'll just throw this out there and if I bust then bump troll the hell out of me... by next weekend we will be tracking a potential large storm and also will be staring down the barrel of a good to maybe even great North American upper level pattern for the foreseeable future. I predict many uncancel posts and lots of optimism for getting a flush hit from a nice coastal. 

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just really haven't liked with what I have been seeing with the trends on the models for the last week or so. I hope you are right about the MJO and the SOI flipping the PAC shortly otherwise I don't like where we are sitting even with a 50/50. Short of seeing strong western based -NAO along with that 50/50 the western extent of the troughing suggests cutter after cutter. Even if we do see a flip I wonder how much of a delay we are talking. Think I saw you mention 7 days? Really starting to run out of time here.

Forgetting the mjo plots just looking at the pressure and chi charts the forcing looks to enter favorable locations east of the dateline in just a few days. With a 5-7 day lag by day 10 we should be feeling it. Guidance has been trending more trough unto the east through day 8-9 and then reloads the se ridge. 

2 thoughts. That could just be an error and they are doing what they did all year and not seeing the mjo right. 

Also there is a lot of snow within the ensembles (and now the ops too) despite the ridge. I have a thought on that. Tell me if you think this makes sense. 

The se ridge may not be totally pac driven. There might be some other cause. I say that because even runs that pull the western trough back and split pressing a trough into the east still have some se ridge. It’s muted with a trough over the top, and those are the really snowy runs actually as that scenario sets up the kind of boundary war we can win with a muted se ridge resisting and throwing waa back over pressing cold over the top. That’s a PD2 type setup. Of course that was an extreme example but that idea works in general. When the se ridge is connected to the pacific and is being pumped by the trough out west is when we really are in trouble.  A trough split with some diving down west and some diving in on top the se ridge is better. 

So either it is pac driven and then it’s wrong. The pac forcing should encourage the cold to try to dive into the eastern conus. Or it’s not pac driven in which that’s ok too as cold pressing on top a muted ridge is the kind of exception to the rule that works here.  That’s actually how 2003, 2014, and 2015 worked. 

You think I’m off my rocker here or might there be something to that idea?  Been kicking it around in my head since yesterday when the weird snowy SE ridge solutions started showing up. 

[frd]

44 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I don't know, this winter had so much promise heading in and this is where we now sit. So maybe I am just bitter like CAPE.  

It has driven me crazy and bitter too !  But maybe, just maybe if we see run over run, over run improvements we can hopefully think a better window is coming up. 

For example if today the GEFS continues with a better look and then the EPS does as well and it contimues for say 5  days I think you can then feel much better the period after Feb 20th will improve.  

Things should move to a -NOA and the trough in the West should start to move East.  

[frd]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm with psu on the next couples weeks to maybe a full month. Shorter wavelengths and tighter spacing in Feb changes the storm landscape. A shutout pattern is always a deathblow but even flawed in Feb can work  and early March too. Imho- we're more likely to have a good to great pattern than a continuation of what we have now. The PNA oscillates far more often than locking in for a month+. I strongly believe the PNA will shift out of hostile mode this month. 

I'll just throw this out there and if I bust then bump troll the hell out of me... by next weekend we will be tracking a potential large storm and also will be staring down the barrel of a good to maybe even great North American upper level pattern for the foreseeable future. I predict many uncancel posts and lots of optimism for getting a flush hit from a nice coastal. 

Chuck hacked your account Bob. Is that really you ?  LOL

But hey,  I am with you till the end.   I agree that the end of Feb should be decent.  I still like an early March strong coastal system. Based partly on analogs and the pattern progression. 

[Bob Chill]

Wanted to add something to my previous post. I'm not expecting a quick flip to a classic +pna. My thoughts are more along the lines of the big western trough backing off enough to not have the rubber band effect with the SE ridge. A neutral pna with a decent atlantic can be a big east coast storm pattern. Drawn out overrunning or a real coastal. I think the setup is coming to our yards soon. Luck and chaos is needed to finish the job (like always)

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Wanted to add something to my previous post. I'm not expecting a quick flip to a classic +pna. My thoughts are more along the lines of the big western trough backing off enough to not have the rubber band effect with the SE ridge. A neutral pna with a decent atlantic can be a big east coast storm pattern. Drawn out overrunning or a real coastal. I think the setup is coming to our yards soon. Luck and chaos is needed to finish the job (like always)

I’ve felt good for a solid February storm the entire winter. Don’t see a reason to change that.

[Bob Chill]

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve felt good for a solid February storm the entire winter. Don’t see a reason to change that.

I really like what the ops and ens are doing in the d8-10 range. We need to root for the later week rain storm to blow up as much as possible. 12z euro is sweet AF. I think this next window might be the real deal. Just need luck and choas to break right. Upper levels look great for now. Hope it holds...

Eta: before people bitch and moan about the verbatim solution on the 12z euro, I'm looking at the big picture. I see good potential for drawn out overrunning or PD2 redux if the stars align. Prob just the beginning of a better stretch down the line.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I really like what the ops and ens are doing in the d8-10 range. We need to root for the later week rain storm to blow up as much as possible. 12z euro is sweet AF. I think this next window might be the real deal. Just need luck and choas to break right. Upper levels look great for now. Hope it holds...

Luck AND chaos? Aren't we greedy lol

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Luck AND chaos? Aren't we greedy lol

Those 2 ingredients are more important than any teleconnection. We always need both. The event on our doorstep could have gone either way. Bad luck and choas stole my snow so they owe me now.

[frd]

Hmmm