psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Too much of a good thing...wave washes out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Too much of a good thing...wave washes out lol The idea is there. Cmc had a sheared shortwave at the same period. Things like this can suddenly turn into event in the mid range. We'll prob have decent column for a few days after that front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 ok next wave getting its act together and still not looking like a cutter pattern. Boundary is pretty suppressed and a lot of high pressure across the north. Having another franziskaner to get me through this deep analysis of the GFS op at 200 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: The idea is there. Cmc had a sheared shortwave at the same period. Things like this can suddenly turn into event in the mid range. We'll prob have decent column for a few days after that front comes through. Obviously I am not taking details on the op runs at this range seriously...but both the GGEM and GFS so far have seriously shifted the thermal boundary south behind that cutter. To the point they both wash out a wave that was a cutter last run. And the GFS implies the window might be more than just a couple days...its snowing into northern Alabama at 210 and 216. I have kind of felt that given the pacific forcing once that got into range the guidance would do exactly what it has been doing and adjust to it. Maybe we are seeing the first signs of that today? The pattern this week looks like a phase 7. SE ridge, cold centered to our NW. But phase 8, and this certainly looks like a phase 8 to me.... says the cold should press and overwhelm the CONUS including the east. I am kind of waiting to see the guidance flip to that all of a sudden. We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 @Bob Chill ok so the GFS sucks with CAD and so its way off on what the temps would actually look like given this setup but tell me this doesn't remind you of something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Well...don't keep us newbies in suspense....what does it remind you of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, psurulz said: Well...don't keep us newbies in suspense....what does it remind you of? lol that's no fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol that's no fun Well at least say if the reminder is good or bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well at least say if the reminder is good or bad! Was good...but it missed the feb 20-28 window by a few days so toss it right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Missed it prior or before? And that depends...how much snow was it down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Missed it prior or before? And that depends...how much snow was it down here? Before and a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 It's PDIISent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Before and a lot 5 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: It's PDII Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk Seriously? Now @psuhoffman then we have no quarrel, good sir! Never said it couldn't snow significantly before or after that Feb. 20-28th window, lol In fact, President's Day has been the very window I've been curiously watching because the history seems to favor it, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Alright folks...workable or no? My novice eyes say yes, but I don't trust them, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright folks...workable or no? My novice eyes say yes, but I don't trust them, lol Mjo should be good after the 16th so the pattern should get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Euro has alot of snow d9 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Psu will SOiL in his pants when he sees this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 Eps mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 This sucks, +NAO now. (The Stratosphere warming = -NAO dates were Jan 21 - Feb 17. It is usually generally positive the March after.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: Eps mean lol It's decent but this is our money period so we would need better. The very end of the month into March better rock. These snow maps have low value anyway, but given the persistent SE ridge on the EPS in the LR, this is probably close to worthless. There would be a lot of cutters/inland tracks with mix to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 hours ago, Ji said: Euro has alot of snow d9 10 But what will DT do now??? seriously as much as he hugs the euro I’m shocked he bailed considering for a couple runs in a row the top eps analog was an example of a Seattle snowstorm a week before a big mid Atlantic snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But what will DT do now??? seriously as much as he hugs the euro I’m shocked he bailed considering for a couple runs in a row the top eps analog was an example of a Seattle snowstorm a week before a big mid Atlantic snowstorm. One of the better GFS runs at 6z I have seen. Maybe because it’s not just cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's decent but this is our money period so we would need better. The very end of the month into March better rock. These snow maps have low value anyway, but given the persistent SE ridge on the EPS in the LR, this is probably close to worthless. There would be a lot of cutters/inland tracks with mix to rain. That’s a pretty big increase for long range on eps. If you take away the snow from the next few days it’s an increase of 4-5” across the area south to north. That’s a bit more than 12z and about as much an increase as you will ever see on the back half of the eps due to spread at that range. Eps doesn’t have the follow the leader issue of the gefs at long leads so storms will be shotgun all over past day 7 making it very hard for anyone to get a huge snow increase in that range. Another thing I’ve been tracking...there were 17 members that missed us to the south with snow in the day 8-15 period. Up from 15 the last 2 runs. I count 18 flush hits during that period and about 9 others that give the DC area some snow day 8-15. There are some totally dry members and then a handful of straight cutter no where near us members. I cant imagine the se ridge is a big problem with 1/3 of the members suppressing storms south of us. Only reason the snow mean isn’t higher in NC is the surface temps are an issue in NC and some of those suppressed storms only put down a couple inches of snow there. The eps doesn’t do what the gefs does and count ice or marginal temps as snow. I know the ridge is there but either it’s baing exaggerated by outliers or it’s an example of a ridge with cold air stuck under it. The week of PD2 for instance looks like crap at h5. I would love to see that ridge kicked out of there but somehow the eps is saying it thinks it’s gonna snow days 8-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 24 minutes ago, BristowWx said: One of the better GFS runs at 6z I have seen. Maybe because it’s not just cutters. Agreed! I'm focusing on the period around the 22nd. Looks promising on the OP with plenty of precipitation chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s a pretty big increase for long range on eps. If you take away the snow from the next few days it’s an increase of 4-5” across the area south to north. That’s a bit more than 12z and about as much an increase as you will ever see on the back half of the eps due to spread at that range. Eps doesn’t have the follow the leader issue of the gefs at long leads so storms will be shotgun all over past day 7 making it very hard for anyone to get a huge snow increase in that range. Another thing I’ve been tracking...there were 17 members that missed us to the south with snow in the day 8-15 period. Up from 15 the last 2 runs. I count 18 flush hits during that period and about 9 others that give the DC area some snow day 8-15. There are some totally dry members and then a handful of straight cutter no where near us members. I cant imagine the se ridge is a big problem with 1/3 of the members suppressing storms south of us. Only reason the snow mean isn’t higher in NC is the surface temps are an issue in NC and some of those suppressed storms only put down a couple inches of snow there. The eps doesn’t do what the gefs does and count ice or marginal temps as snow. I know the ridge is there but either it’s baing exaggerated by outliers or it’s an example of a ridge with cold air stuck under it. The week of PD2 for instance looks like crap at h5. I would love to see that ridge kicked out of there but somehow the eps is saying it thinks it’s gonna snow days 8-15. I was partly just giving Ji a hard time. I understand the differences between the GEFS and EPS. But yeah the period around/just after PD is looking more interesting- we discussed this yesterday irt to the 12z GFS/GEFS. As for the persistent ridge, who knows. Without looking deeper, and given the potential for winter storms being suggested for the east coast, there would almost have to be a camp among the members that are skewing the mean in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 That’s a pretty big increase for long range on eps. If you take away the snow from the next few days it’s an increase of 4-5” across the area south to north. That’s a bit more than 12z and about as much an increase as you will ever see on the back half of the eps due to spread at that range. Eps doesn’t have the follow the leader issue of the gefs at long leads so storms will be shotgun all over past day 7 making it very hard for anyone to get a huge snow increase in that range. Another thing I’ve been tracking...there were 17 members that missed us to the south with snow in the day 8-15 period. Up from 15 the last 2 runs. I count 18 flush hits during that period and about 9 others that give the DC area some snow day 8-15. There are some totally dry members and then a handful of straight cutter no where near us members. I cant imagine the se ridge is a big problem with 1/3 of the members suppressing storms south of us. Only reason the snow mean isn’t higher in NC is the surface temps are an issue in NC and some of those suppressed storms only put down a couple inches of snow there. The eps doesn’t do what the gefs does and count ice or marginal temps as snow. I know the ridge is there but either it’s baing exaggerated by outliers or it’s an example of a ridge with cold air stuck under it. The week of PD2 for instance looks like crap at h5. I would love to see that ridge kicked out of there but somehow the eps is saying it thinks it’s gonna snow days 8-15. I'm not buying this phase 8 se ridge ssw bs....I think in a few days we will be seeing less se ridge on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I was partly just giving Ji a hard time. I understand the differences between the GEFS and EPS. But yeah the period around/just after PD is looking more interesting- we discussed this yesterday irt to the 12z GFS/GEFS. As for the persistent ridge, who knows. Without looking deeper, and given the potential for winter storms being suggested for the east coast, there would almost have to be a camp among the members that are skewing the mean in that direction. We will see. The soi has gone negative and it looks to really crash bigly over the next few days. There has been no delay or degradation of that this time. One of the big “uh ohs” that turned me sour back in January was when I saw the soi start to trend back positive along with the sudden move if the mjo back to phase 4. That was a “Houston we have a problem” moment. This time the soi crash and mjo wave unti 8/1 seems real. On a side note according to that Furtado’s study when the strat is weak it shifts the mjo phase response back a phase. So if that’s true instead of the mjo becoming favorable the second half of 7 into 8 its 8 into 1. That might explain why the se ridge lingers. Still the mjo looks like 8/1 heading to 1 on the chi charts by days 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s a pretty big increase for long range on eps. If you take away the snow from the next few days it’s an increase of 4-5” across the area south to north. That’s a bit more than 12z and about as much an increase as you will ever see on the back half of the eps due to spread at that range. Eps doesn’t have the follow the leader issue of the gefs at long leads so storms will be shotgun all over past day 7 making it very hard for anyone to get a huge snow increase in that range. Another thing I’ve been tracking...there were 17 members that missed us to the south with snow in the day 8-15 period. Up from 15 the last 2 runs. I count 18 flush hits during that period and about 9 others that give the DC area some snow day 8-15. There are some totally dry members and then a handful of straight cutter no where near us members. I cant imagine the se ridge is a big problem with 1/3 of the members suppressing storms south of us. Only reason the snow mean isn’t higher in NC is the surface temps are an issue in NC and some of those suppressed storms only put down a couple inches of snow there. The eps doesn’t do what the gefs does and count ice or marginal temps as snow. I know the ridge is there but either it’s baing exaggerated by outliers or it’s an example of a ridge with cold air stuck under it. The week of PD2 for instance looks like crap at h5. I would love to see that ridge kicked out of there but somehow the eps is saying it thinks it’s gonna snow days 8-15. I'm not buying this phase 8 se ridge ssw bs....I think in a few days we will be seeing less se ridge on future runs. Even if that furtado study is right it only shifts the phases about 1 phase. We are heading towards 1 by day 10-15 anyways. I agree the guidance will shift towards less ridge soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Even if that furtado study is right it only shifts the phases about 1 phase. We are heading towards 1 by day 10-15 anyways. I agree the guidance will shift towards less ridge soon. If the SD of the neg NAO is as anomalous as forecast wouldnt we want the SE Ridge to at least still remain there in part? I know it is whatever it is whatever happens happens. Just asking. I could see the neg NAO finally setting up and then us wishing the SE Ridge didn't vanish while DT is eating crow and we re smoking cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If the SD of the neg NAO is as anomalous as forecast wouldnt we want the SE Ridge to at least still remain there in part? I know it is whatever it is whatever happens happens. Just asking. I could see the neg NAO finally setting up and then us wishing the SE Ridge didn't vanish while DT is eating crow and we re smoking cirrus. I'll answer this. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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