The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Good news DT just canceled the second half of February 

I can't figure DT out... he lamented how the mjo and soi has failed this winter a while ago...and now just as they are both about to do what he expected all winter he bails?  Is he just model rip and reading?  And even if he is, odd he would cancel right after the 2 best long range runs of the winter. 

[aldie 22]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I can't figure DT out... he lamented how the mjo and soi has failed this winter a while ago...and now just as they are both about to do what he expected all winter he bails?  Is he just model rip and reading?  And even if he is, odd he would cancel right after the 2 best long range runs of the winter. 

He says because its snowing in Seattle forget about here for awhile...I'm paraphrasing 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can't figure DT out... he lamented how the mjo and soi has failed this winter a while ago...and now just as they are both about to do what he expected all winter he bails?  Is he just model rip and reading?  And even if he is, odd he would cancel right after the 2 best long range runs of the winter. 

He is going to jump out a high window, can't blame him  

[MDstorm]

15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Good news DT just canceled the second half of February 

That’s OK.  Earlier in the winter, he said there would be no significant snow in DC for the first half of January.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

He says because its snowing in Seattle forget about here for awhile...I'm paraphrasing 

he has too many "rules" that he sticks too when there are way too many exceptions in this game for that. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

he has too many "rules" that he sticks too when there are way too many exceptions in this game for that. 

MASSIVE  SNOWSTORM HITS   SEATTLE   PAC  NW 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/seattle-nearly-reached-its-yearly-amount-of-snowfall-in-a-day/ar-BBTmzfB?ocid=iehp

If you are regular person  then you may not understand the significance of the Seattle snowstorm except to say well big snow in Seattle that's kind of rare.

That is   true.    But if you are a meteorologist .. if you are weather hobbyist ...   nerd or  weenie...  you will  understand the significance of the snowstorm and the bitter cold which is moved into the Pacific Northwest.  It has to do with basic wave of physics and one of the laws of Newton.

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.  In looking  at jet stream patterns for every Rridge there is a trough  and   for every trough there is a ridge.
If you go back and take a look of the upper air maps for big snow storms and severe cold over the East Coast / the eastern third of the country you wil  see that over 95% a time when the East Coast has had a big snowstorm or coastal storm or severe cold ...the  West coast has seen very warm or near record warm temperatures and that's a specially true and the Pacific Northwest.

Likewise when the Pacific Northwest is a very cold/  snowy / OR stormy... the East Coast usually is quite mild.  It just so happens that the actual distance of conus  of about 3000 miles across is  often the exact distance we get between ridges and troughs.  We see the same sort of thing in Europe.  When the is a deep trough in the jet stream over the Azores or Spain or United Kingdom or France you get a pre big rage over Western Russia.  And vice versa.  It's just one of those things.

The important point here is that  right now  Because you have a deep trough over the Pacific Northwest  and it's going to stay that way  as it  expands into the California area on the Rockies ..  any one who is telling you to stand by for the second half of February it' is gonna get really stormy and cold and snow in the east ... well    that person is selling you will pile of BS.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

MASSIVE  SNOWSTORM HITS   SEATTLE   PAC  NW 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/seattle-nearly-reached-its-yearly-amount-of-snowfall-in-a-day/ar-BBTmzfB?ocid=iehp

If you are regular person  then you may not understand the significance of the Seattle snowstorm except to say well big snow in Seattle that's kind of rare.

That is   true.    But if you are a meteorologist .. if you are weather hobbyist ...   nerd or  weenie...  you will  understand the significance of the snowstorm and the bitter cold which is moved into the Pacific Northwest.  It has to do with basic wave of physics and one of the laws of Newton.

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.  In looking  at jet stream patterns for every Rridge there is a trough  and   for every trough there is a ridge.
If you go back and take a look of the upper air maps for big snow storms and severe cold over the East Coast / the eastern third of the country you wil  see that over 95% a time when the East Coast has had a big snowstorm or coastal storm or severe cold ...the  West coast has seen very warm or near record warm temperatures and that's a specially true and the Pacific Northwest.

Likewise when the Pacific Northwest is a very cold/  snowy / OR stormy... the East Coast usually is quite mild.  It just so happens that the actual distance of conus  of about 3000 miles across is  often the exact distance we get between ridges and troughs.  We see the same sort of thing in Europe.  When the is a deep trough in the jet stream over the Azores or Spain or United Kingdom or France you get a pre big rage over Western Russia.  And vice versa.  It's just one of those things.

The important point here is that  right now  Because you have a deep trough over the Pacific Northwest  and it's going to stay that way  as it  expands into the California area on the Rockies ..  any one who is telling you to stand by for the second half of February it' is gonna get really stormy and cold and snow in the east ... well    that person is selling you will pile of BS.

He is "somewhat" right but takes it to extreme.  I mean first you have to ignore that it is going to snow some in the east next week.  North of Richmond obviously and mostly north of DC but Philly to NYC is getting at least some snow. 

Next...no one is saying the next 7 days are getting very cold...but there are 19 days left in February.  That is time for the trough ridge alignment to shift. 

For instance Feb 28 1962 Seattle had 7" of snow... less then a week later Baltimore got 13" of snow, which was the top analog on the day 10-15 EPS yesterday!

[HighStakes]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He is "somewhat" right but takes it to extreme.  I mean first you have to ignore that it is going to snow some in the east next week.  North of Richmond obviously and mostly north of DC but Philly to NYC is getting at least some snow. 

Next...no one is saying the next 7 days are getting very cold...but there are 19 days left in February.  That is time for the trough ridge alignment to shift. 

For instance Feb 28 1962 Seattle had 7" of snow... less then a week later Baltimore got 13" of snow, which was the top analog on the day 10-15 EPS yesterday!

Little trivia facts like the 1962 seattle  thing you just posted mean something and have value. It's funny how history repeats but it does so for a reason not just coincidence. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For instance Feb 28 1962 Seattle had 7" of snow... less then a week later Baltimore got 13" of snow, which was the top analog on the day 10-15 EPS yesterday!

Priceless . 

 

Besides there is a significant difference versus the entire second half of Feb and the end of Feb. Our window is after 2/20.    

The ace card will be when we see the EPS go up for three days in a row and NOT reverse.  ( or HM annouces a winter threat date, LOL, whatever one is fine with me ) 

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

He says because its snowing in Seattle forget about here for awhile...I'm paraphrasing 

He lives south of Richmond. Enough said.

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He lives south of Richmond. Enough said.

Point taken but Richmond got 15” from that 1962 storm.  I think he just sticks to the euro and firm rules too much. 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Point taken but Richmond got 15” from that 1962 storm.  I think he just sticks to the euro and firm rules too much. 

Probably a combination. Reading his stuff over the years he defo has some sort of complex about his location, which impacts his objectivity.. snow anus etc. Hell he even moved to N VA for a brief time before going back.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably a combination. Reading his stuff over the years he defo has some sort of complex about his location, which impacts his objectivity.. snow anus etc. Hell he even moved to N VA for a brief time before going back.

Oh yes.  He hates our region for something only he knows.  Not sure why because we are a fine bunch of SOBs!

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably a combination. Reading his stuff over the years he defo has some sort of complex about his location, which impacts his objectivity.. snow anus etc. Hell he even moved to N VA for a brief time before going back.

He moved from the anus to the armpit lol. 

I always found that whole thing weird. Not the moving for snow I could never live in Richmond. I dream of moving somewhere that gets 100”+ a year and not having to sweat each “threat” anymore. 

But if you are mobile with your own business like him and your moving for snow why go from somewhere that gets 12” a year to somewhere that gets 25?   Why not go somewhere that gets a lot more?  He makes himself miserable living there and loving snow. It’s provably worse that being in Florida and just knowing it won’t ever snow.   He is constantly teased with the chance but rarely ever rewarded there. Even worse than us. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

He moved from the anus to the armpit lol. 

I always found that whole thing weird. Not the moving for snow I could never live in Richmond. I dream of moving somewhere that gets 100”+ a year and not having to sweat each “threat” anymore. 

But if you are mobile with your own business like him and your moving for snow why go from somewhere that gets 12” a year to somewhere that gets 25?   Why not go somewhere that gets a lot more?  He makes himself miserable living there and loving snow. It’s provably worse that being in Florida and just knowing it won’t ever snow.   He is constantly teased with the chance but rarely ever rewarded there. Even worse than us. 

Yeah I don't get it other than he has family there. If I move(more like when) it will be to a place like Canaan where a fart makes it snow in winter.

[BristowWx]

Gotta move to New England.  NE PA would work or NW NJ.  Living here is painful if you like snow.  We have little margin for error.  Other than the snow I like it here in the MA. 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Gotta move to New England.  NE PA would work or NW NJ.  Living here is painful if you like snow.  We have little margin for error.  Other than the snow I like it here in the MA. 

Just move to the Catoctins and you'll be a million times better.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Gotta move to New England.  NE PA would work or NW NJ.  Living here is painful if you like snow.  We have little margin for error.  Other than the snow I like it here in the MA. 

I’m thinking either the mountains in Colorado or somewhere in northern New England. Colorado would be better for skiing and consistent snow and New England better for blizzards. 

[psuhoffman]

@C.A.P.E.

if we fail I hope it’s like this so I can troll DT unmercifully 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Priceless . 

 

Besides there is a significant difference versus the entire second half of Feb and the end of Feb. Our window is after 2/20.    

The ace card will be when we see the EPS go up for three days in a row and NOT reverse.  ( or HM annouces a winter threat date, LOL, whatever one is fine with me ) 

Yep, he'll add a brief tidbit on what the King is showing and move right into ALEET mode, and trash all other models once the Euro jumps on.  Sorry, he is way worse than JB.  JB's a hypster, but his bias is not to a model, its to cold and snow, and at least he's looking for something I/we want.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just move to the Catoctins and you'll be a million times better.

Perhaps. But my life is here for now.  Kids family and no one outside this board understands this snow addiction.  Someday I will depart and post from a snowy forum.  God willing of course. 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Gotta move to New England.  NE PA would work or NW NJ.  Living here is painful if you like snow.  We have little margin for error.  Other than the snow I like it here in the MA. 

I am leaning towards coastal Maine. Great summers. Snows plenty in winter but not brutal cold, and lobster.

[pasnownut]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Perhaps. But my life is here for now.  Kids family and no one outside this board understands this snow addiction.  Someday I will depart and post from a snowy forum.  God willing of course. 

I hope you can make it happen.  I wish I could.

Stick me in Bennington VT or somewhere close and I'd be a happy guy.  

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m thinking either the mountains in Colorado or somewhere in northern New England. Colorado would be better for skiing and consistent snow and New England better for blizzards. 

NE seems best.  Maine.  They laugh at the thought of worry about 2m temps or 850s.  Our snow climo is a weekend in December for them.  Oh how they mock us.  

[pasnownut]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I am leaning towards coastal Maine. Great summers. Snows plenty in winter but not brutal cold, and lobster.

Someday I'm gonna go up and order 3 lobster roll sandwiches abd not get up till there all gone.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I hope you can make it happen.  I wish I could.

Stick me in Bennington VT or somewhere close and I'd be a happy guy.  

Gotta have hopes and dreams or you would never get out of bed.  My wife thinks it’s cold here so the dream will remain an elusive one. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am leaning towards coastal Maine. Great summers. Snows plenty in winter but not brutal cold, and lobster.

Yummy  ~~~~~ !!!!!!!!!!  The heck with the snow, lobster please and a big bowl of butta 

[aldie 22]

International falls Minnesota is my dream home 

[BristowWx]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

International falls Minnesota is my dream home 

Dream location.  Never been but when a cold front comes through I would think it’s like a freight train hitting your house.  And rain is something the becomes an issue around Mothers Day.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

International falls Minnesota is my dream home 

The icebox. The antithesis of this area. I could do it.