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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The shutout pattern in December had that Pac jet blasting into the west coast.  Now it's barely making it to the dateline before splitting.  That's a pretty good look actually.  If anything we want it to extend a bit farther so that ridge is closer to the west coast.  It gets there right at the very end, but 14-16 days out, etc.  That jet across the CONUS there is primarily STJ.  

By the way not sure if you heard this , or even if this is a real observed effect.

But reading around, I read that even once you enter a better MJO phase , there is a 5 to 7 day lag for the effects to manifest themselves into the pattern.  I assumed that meant to colder and stormier for the East Coast .   

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, frd said:

By the way not sure if you heard this , or even if this is a real observed effect.

But reading around, I read that even once you enter a better MJO phase , there is a 5 to 7 day lag for the effects to manifest themselves into the pattern.  I assumed that meant to colder and stormier for the East Coast .   

I posted a study published last year a week ago that said exactly that. 

@Ji the problem is the mjo progress has been slowing the last 2 weeks. First some expected the last wave to just continue into 8. I kind of never got on board that so I was debbing early Feb. Then the next wave was supposed to immediately initiate and go into 8...and I kind of did jump on that. That would have targeted a flip around feb 15-20. But again it’s stalled. It comes out and does a slow loop through 7 before getting to 8 late on the gfs and geps  and on the euro dies back into null before actually gaining amplitude into 1.  They aren’t as far apart as the charts look it’s actually the way they key on different conflicting convection waves. But the bottom line is they have both stalled getting a clear strong beneficial mjo signal to day 10 now. Add in the lag and ugh.

Plus the latest stall makes it clear the mjo really hates phase 8/1/2 this year. I suppose it opens the possibility we are being duped again and it never really goes on a tour of those phases. I don’t think that yet. Guidance all strongly takes it into 8/1 but frustratingly slow. If in the next couple days we see a trend towards either a loop back to 7 or into null I will concede the mjo just hates us and it’s probably over.  I’m not there now 

Finally the soi crash is progressing. Looks to really tank in 2-3 days and stay severely negative through the next 2 weeks. That should support the mjo moving towards more typical nino phases like 8-2. 

Finally...regarding Furtado’s study that 8 isn’t as good in a ssw year. That would argue that a ssw early in a nino is a bad thing. Maybe it did screw us.  First there is a correlation between early season sswe and high amp warm phase mjo. So that puzzle piece killed a big chunk of early winter. And now there is evidence the sswe muted the benefits of a phase 8 mjo...when that is the main benefit of a nino since phases 8/1 match up with typical modoki nino forcing. So if those phases become less favorable basically a sswe early in a nino makes a nino less beneficial. Ain’t that a kick in the nads!

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Ji said:

HM stopped posting on twitter

Even HM seems only average this year, which says a lot.  But,  normally he is exceptional on pattern signals.  

To make matters worse one met will say the SSTs around Greenland have improved for a -NAO while other mets say the opposite. 

Then another camp argue the fact that SST at the higher lattitudes do not drive a -NAO.  I can see the Northeast PAc warm blob having a huge effect but maybe the NAO is in an area regardless of SSTs it not enough to drive it negative. 

Or, maybe it is the AMO.  Seems the last several winters minus last March had the mostly positive NAO phase, despite several different SST profiles in the Atlantic, warm, super warm, nuetral, tripole , etc.   Nothing has taken place to drive a -NAO like back in the decadal period such  as the 1960s. 

       

  

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

@psuhoffman

ponder this one 

 

 

and ponder this as well, I never heard of this before 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

@Ji

thibgs are moving frustratingly slow but unlike mid January they are still progressing the way I want to see. It will suck to get right for early March but it is what it is. I’m in salvage mode now. We can go on some nice runs in March. We have lately!  I’ll sacrifice Feb 15-22 if this is what it looks like after!  05AA855B-9FFB-455F-9E87-85E7FDEF0669.thumb.png.b7d4369e4db452e51bdeafd8b22c1691.png

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman

ponder this one 

 

 

and ponder this as well, I never heard of this before 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All the pondering seems to give me bare grass. Lol

that h5 chart is misleading. There has been above normal height near Greenland a lot but it’s been the most useless ridging possible. Not a real block. The last 5 days we had a real NAO block but it was weak and is breaking down about 24 hours too soon to help with Tuesday. It did help destroy the war so it got us in the game. Without it we would be warm still early next week with no hope at all like this week. It had an impact but it wasn’t strong or long enough to offset the -pna. 

Most of the time the NAO ridge wasn’t even that good. It was just a northern extension of a mid latitude war ridge. As soon as the next wave came it would retreat only to reload. It wasn’t “blocking” the flow at all and so was useless. Not all red there is the same for our snow chances. 

I’m keeping this simple. Soi tanking. Mjo going into cold phases. Those 2 have been running the pattern all winter. It’s taking longer than we want but that’s been the MO all year too. The mjo took FOREVER in warm phases remember. Maybe it comes too late. The timing is still better then last year if it comes around feb 20-25. This time we don’t need to wait for cold to establish in NAM. There is cold around. Last year the pattern flipped Feb 25 but it took 10+ days to get enough cold into the east to have real legit threats. This time it’s game on as soon as we get storms to track under us. Cold around. isn’t a problem. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The GFS just does not want to keep the cold air in place.  Gosh darn SE ridge!  Sorry for the language.  Can’t believe we have that to contend with now.  I am starting to think we might have to wait longer. 

The block on the gfs sets up too Far East. Great block...just need it near Greenland not out in the Atlantic. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m in salvage mode now. We can go on some nice runs in March. We have lately!  I’ll sacrifice Feb 15-22 if this is what it looks like after

We? Whose we? Lol I just cannot believe we gotta toss next week AND possibly much of the week after as well, smh I do not believe we can get a foot of snow late February (Feb. 20th-March 1st) simply because it has never happened in recorded weather history (as far as I know) Not here in the corridor (feb 87 doesn't count because it wasn't a foot...may not have been 10 inches either). So it's a disaster for the corridor. And 20 inches in March? Forget it...only happened once or twice.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

@frd @Ji

was just scanning some of the weather twitters I follow and watched/read some of JBs stuff from the last week. Seems most are saying the same we are and just as confused by the lack or response yet.  There is enough hints within the guidance though. Random op runs. Support within each enable. The eps still had 15 members last night miss is to the south with some frozen day 10-15. A few were even big hits to our south.  Obviously there isn’t a se ridge problem if a west to east storm gets shoved to our south and it’s snowing in NC.  Until I see a clear signal that either the mjo/soi is failing OR it gets inside 10 days and guidance is universal that we won’t get a response I’m sticking with the idea the guidance will adjust to the mjo like it has all year.

on a Jb side note... I was a bit disturbed that he sounds a lot like me right now.  Confused by the lack of response yet to the mjo and soi.  Makes me less confident honestly.  But others I trust more are saying the same.  Jb does have knowledge but what’s frustrating is his spin and hype and sometimes I believe he purposely misrepresents things to give a false narrative.  We essentially had the same forecast except I didn’t go as stupid crazy over the top as he did.  But for the most part we thought the same.  So I busted just as bad.  Only I admitted it a month ago when the soi and mjo failed to act as expected mid January and cycled back into Nina phases after only a 7 day nino tease.  At that time my forecast AND his was wrong.  No matter the results it would still be wrong because all the justification for it was wrong.  But he is still acting like everything is going according to plan.  And even if he could pull off the snow with some late fluke his temperature call only runs to Feb 28 and has no chance.  It’s toast.  The exact place he centered his cold will be the center of the warmth yet he is acting like his winter forecast was ok.  What’s more amazing is he has this google of followers that defend him (mostly around NYC which makes sense since they are the one place with such crazy anomslous snow recently that his forecasts weren’t as bad there).  

 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We? Whose we? Lol I just cannot believe we gotta toss next week AND possibly much of the week after as well, smh I do not believe we can get a foot of snow late February (Feb. 20th-March 1st) simply because it has never happened in recorded weather history (as far as I know) Not here in the corridor (feb 87 doesn't count because it wasn't a foot...may not have been 10 inches either). So it's a disaster for the corridor. And 20 inches in March? Forget it...only happened once or twice.

You didn’t get a warning criteria snow in March in 2014, 2015, and last year???  That’s 3 of the last 5. 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

GEFS snowfall mean improved yet again. Weenies rejoice.

So this is good for 384 hours ?

I will say this for MBY  Northern freak'in Delaware has got a little more color. LOL  

And the possible good news is this is prior to the so called mystical great pattern window,  j/k  I feel we score 

gefs_snow_mean_neng_65.png

 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, frd said:

So this is good for 384 hours ?

I will say this for MBY  Northern freak'in Delaware has got a little more color. LOL  

And the possible good news is this is prior to the so called mystical great pattern window,  j/k  I feel we score 

 

 

See the panel I posted above

We gonna do PD III.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Question - is that a 50 50 or a displaced Baffins block or neither ?  ( on the GEFS at 192 )

Its sort of inverted from what we want lol. There really is no block, just transient ridging in front of the low. It still probably tracks inland, but the GEFS gives a glimmer of hope. Still way out there, so lots could change.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Lol.

Just looking at the mean this period has improved over previous runs. Not bad.

threat.thumb.png.11df725117c93cf85025846ba77e64cd.png

Guidance lately is adjusting the day 8-9 look to what I would expect. More trough east and some blocking. Then they pop the se ridge back day 11+ and the gefs loses the block. I kind of expect that is error and the better look day 8 just rolls into the long range. 

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