psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Signal for 60s in the extended...that's a tough temp for snow but we will see What are you talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: What are you talking about Might mean the Uber LR on 6z GFS. Op run but SE is doing the deed. Not saying it’s right but it’s not encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 0z GEFS shifts the coldest anomalies to the NE for the last week of Feb. Really beats down the SE ridge. Maybe it has caught on. EPS seems to be slowly moving in that direction, but still stubborn with the W US trough. 6z gefs brought back the SE ridge lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 Lol soi went the wrong way..it may be time to cancel winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 6z gefs brought back the SE ridge lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z gefs brought back the SE ridge lol 6z run. we toss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol soi went the wrong way..it may be time to cancel winter It looks extremely negative day 3 on to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z gefs brought back the SE ridge lol It's actually not much different. Mostly noise. Still gets to a nice look for the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's actually not much different. Mostly noise. Still gets to a nice look for the end of the month. Yea I was just going along with the tone Ji and Leesburg seem to be trying to establish. I don’t put much weight in the gefs right now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 This would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I was just going along with the tone Ji and Leesburg seem to be trying to establish. I don’t put much weight in the gefs right now anyways. I was just trying to get Bristow to leap...he loves looking at OP runs in the long range for temps and when I saw 60s I knew he was having an aneurysm...I remain vigilant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 My takeaway this season....when the MJO and SOI have been driving the pattern BUT the MJO and SOI have been unpredictable at 10 days+, dont buy in even when they decide to work in tandem to show an epic pattern 10-15 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 This would work. That's basically March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This would work. That's basically March Only because February is a short month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 GEPS has consistently kept the SE ridge even when the eps/gefs show a good look. It’s made the eps/gefs look like fools. Should we be giving it more weight until it’s proven otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 Only because February is a short month Psu and Cape have been saying d10 to 15 look good for 2 weeks ....the problem is now 10-15 is starting to tickle march. Were going to get one good wintry day in feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Only because February is a short month Psu and Cape have been saying d10 to 15 look good for 2 weeks ....the problem is now 10-15 is starting to tickle march. Were going to get one good wintry day in feb? Or none....who knows bro...crazy winter for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 Or none....who knows bro...crazy winter for sureWatch us get a hecs on feb 28 and feb finishes +5 with 23 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 What have the eggheads to say about the rest of February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Or none....who knows bro...crazy winter for sure Watch us get a hecs on feb 28 and feb finishes +5 with 23 inches of snow Could happen I suppose but it would have to be a surprise storm because every threat that shows up on the models in the long range disappears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 HM stopped posting on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Probably not a good sign when even Boston is getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Wow, this has been a truly epic pattern and winter for parts of the Plains. I wonder when the last time they got nailed with repeated blizzards like this? And Feb shows no end in sight for them. Screw the road trips N, time to head West! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 27 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Or none....who knows bro...crazy winter for sure It might not snow the rest of winter. Probably will though. It looks like the last week or so of Feb and into March is when the pattern should be colder and more favorable in the east. Hard to have any confidence when it seems we have been saying the same thing all winter, but now we know where we stand with the Nino(or lack there of), and the MJO and SOI look to finally cooperate. If it ends "badly", so be it. Weather gonna weather, and sometimes it doesn't behave as expected(or desired). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wow, this has been a truly epic pattern and winter for parts of the Plains. I wonder when the last time they got nailed with repeated blizzards like this? And Feb shows no end in sight for them. Screw the road trips N, time to head West! I was thinking the same- clearly this is the Midwest’s winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: It might not snow the rest of winter. Probably will though. It looks like the last week or so of Feb and into March is when the pattern should be colder and more favorable in the east. Hard to have any confidence when it seems we have been saying the same thing all winter, but now we know where we stand with the Nino(or lack there of), and the MJO and SOI look to finally cooperate. If it ends "badly", so be it. Weather gonna weather, and sometimes it doesn't behave as expected(or desired). Was saying the same thing earlier to a few colleagues that enjoy snow. The thought that keeps going thru my head for a few days now is we know the MJO with some aid from the SOI have been driving the pattern. This much we seem to know. So on paper if the LR MJO progression and SOI SD appear favorable then recent history says we should enter a good pattern. Ok, ens picked up on this and have been reflecting a better look in the Atl. But what I keep asking myself is this....why should we believe the MJO and SOI forecasts will be accurate at range? Seems like we are putting all of our eggs in this basket where the assumption is both of those indices verify. If for some reason the SOI decides not to tank or the MJO doesnt head into the more favorable phases then we are right back where we began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Like bluewave said in December the Pac jet is a killer. We will never get out of this pattern if this continues and there are no real signs you can believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 The shutout pattern in December had that Pac jet blasting into the west coast. Now it's barely making it to the dateline before splitting. That's a pretty good look actually. If anything we want it to extend a bit farther so that ridge is closer to the west coast. It gets there right at the very end, but 14-16 days out, etc. That jet across the CONUS there is primarily STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The shutout pattern in December had that Pac jet blasting into the west coast. Now it's barely making it to the dateline before splitting. That's a pretty good look actually. If anything we want it to extend a bit farther so that ridge is closer to the west coast. It gets there right at the very end, but 14-16 days out, etc. That jet across the CONUS there is primarily STJ. @WxUSAF do you still feel if the -NAO materializes we do indeed still have an oppurtunity to get "some" snow near the very last part of Feb. (maybe early March ) I am burnt out by this winter. Thanks !! Always appreciate your insights ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, frd said: Like bluewave said in December the Pac jet is a killer. We will never get out of this pattern if this continues and there are no real signs you can believe. The MJO should help everyone out coming up towards the latter half of this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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