psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman I was wondering why i couldnt remember any KU's or even good storms between Feb 20 and March 1st. Lol..there hasnt been any https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Northeast_Snowfall_Impact_Scale_winter_storms Here is the list i found February 22–28, 1969 February 22–23, 1987 (Lame ass) February 25–27, 2010(that didnt impact us) the Feb 2015 storm didnt even make that list.... my guess is that usually that week is drained since the week before then is really snow typically Well obviously we're due then!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 As soon as the El Nino faded this year, we went strong -PNA. March could be hard to do cold. I was going to say, it's been hard to do +PNA in the Hadley Cell region at all since 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman I was wondering why i couldnt remember any KU's or even good storms between Feb 20 and March 1st. Lol..there hasnt been any https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Northeast_Snowfall_Impact_Scale_winter_storms Here is the list i found February 22–28, 1969 February 22–23, 1987 (Lame ass) February 25–27, 2010(that didnt impact us) the Feb 2015 storm didnt even make that list.... my guess is that usually that week is drained since the week before then is really snow typically The top day 10-15 analog from last nights eps was a few days before the 1962 Ashe Wednesday blizzard. Feb 58 and 87 in there too. Some better analogs starting to pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The top day 10-15 analog from last nights eps was a few days before the 1962 Ashe Wednesday blizzard. Feb 58 and 87 in there too. Some better analogs starting to pop up. Hmmmm, Ash Wednesday 62 eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hmmmm, Ash Wednesday 62 eh? @WEATHER53 favorite event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 EPS finally gets me into the purple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 32 minutes ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman Here is the list i found February 22–28, 1969 February 22–23, 1987 (Lame ass) February 25–27, 2010(that didnt impact us) the Feb 2015 storm didnt even make that list.... my guess is that usually that week is drained since the week before then is really snow typically 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Well obviously we're due then!!! I KNEW IT!!!! See, this is why I want to see something around President's day--because I do NOT trust the history for after the 20th-March 1st. I don't believe in "we're due" as far as that's concerned, lol (thanks for researching that, @Ji!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The top day 10-15 analog from last nights eps was a few days before the 1962 Ashe Wednesday blizzard. Feb 58 and 87 in there too. Some better analogs starting to pop up. An event similiar to the Ash Wednesday storm would in today's dollars would be mind boggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS finally gets me into the purple At least I can cross that off my list of things I need to worry about...can now focus on world peace and risky drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I KNEW IT!!!! See, this is why I want to see something around President's day--because I do NOT trust the history for after the 20th-March 1st. I don't believe in "we're due" as far as that's concerned, lol (thanks for researching that, @Ji!) Chill out..there were big storms in that period. Ji dismisses the 12-18” storm in late Feb 1987 for some reason. We just had a 6-10” snow late Feb in 2015. We had a 6” snow late February 2005. Ji is making a big deal of a minor statistical anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Chill out..there were big storms in that period. Ji dismisses the 12-18” storm in late Feb 1987 for some reason. We just had a 6-10” snow late Feb in 2015. We had a 6” snow late February 2005. Ji is making a big deal of a minor statistical anomaly. feb 87 was on my list but its a storm that you hate....it was gone before you could find your shovel. The feb 2005 was the worst noreaster of all time....worst qpf for that kind of Low. Feb 2015 was good but very localized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: feb 87 was on my list but its a storm that you hate....it was gone before you could find your shovel. The feb 2005 was the worst noreaster of all time....worst qpf for that kind of Low. Feb 2015 was good but very localized According to local coop here there was snowcover for 3 days. Went from 16” otg the day of storm to 8” to 3” then gone. Not great but gone in 3 days is better than gone in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: feb 87 was on my list but its a storm that you hate....it was gone before you could find your shovel. The feb 2005 was the worst noreaster of all time....worst qpf for that kind of Low. Feb 2015 was good but very localized I’m sorry our late February snows haven’t lived up to your specific storm criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Wow huge shift in the storm for next weekend on gfs. Went from a cutter to a super mega cutter. Snow shifted from Chicago NW to Minneapolis NW. Maybe if it keeps trending that way for the next 30 runs it can swing all the way around and hit us from the east!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I’m actually kind of rooting on a mega cutter bomb. That could help tank the NAO more and get the trough into the east behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wow huge shift in the storm for next weekend on gfs. Went from a cutter to a super mega cutter. Snow shifted from Chicago NW to Minneapolis NW. Maybe if it keeps trending that way for the next 30 runs it can swing all the way around and hit us from the east!!! The pattern changing HM super Blizzard. After that the HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’m actually kind of rooting on a mega cutter bomb. That could help tank the NAO more and get the trough into the east behind it. Ha ha ha , that was my line of thinking too .I see you ninajed my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 So much for PD3 based on that. Had high hopes for that weekend. Not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Maybe a couple of cutters. Then it should get really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Chill out..there were big storms in that period. Ji dismisses the 12-18” storm in late Feb 1987 for some reason. We just had a 6-10” snow late Feb in 2015. We had a 6” snow late February 2005. Ji is making a big deal of a minor statistical anomaly. So one 12-18 inch late February storm in the last 60 years? Forgive me if I don't like those odds...was really hoping for PD, but...might not be meant to be (I mean, there is minimal chance with that now, right?) Would love to be surprised at late February, though. But historically, doesn't appear to be favorable...but I'll gladly be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Maybe a couple of cutters. Then it should get really good. Like January all over. The first cutter should setup the second cutter which will dip the baroclinic zone for the wave that goes south but sets the stage for the catalyst system which we have to get the rain before we get to the rainbow after that oh wait its St Patty's Day where did winter go? Fingers crossed we dont have a repeat scenario this month. Feb 20+ ftmfw!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 28 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So much for PD3 based on that. Had high hopes for that weekend. Not sure why I did too (maybe it was because of history, lol)...really felt like something might pop there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Like January all over. The first cutter should setup the second cutter which will dip the baroclinic zone for the wave that goes south but sets the stage for the catalyst system which we have to get the rain before we get to the rainbow after that oh wait its St Patty's Day where did winter go? Fingers crossed we dont have a repeat scenario this month. Feb 20+ ftmfw!! You are a pillar of optimism. I wish I could be but I just have a bad feeling like Hurley did in Lost. We know what happened there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 34 minutes ago, frd said: Ha ha ha , that was my line of thinking too .I see you ninajed my mind its a valid idea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: You are a pillar of optimism. I wish I could be but I just have a bad feeling like Hurley did in Lost. We know what happened there. I'm like a blend of the GFS and UKIE....cautious optimism and hope balanced with depressive pessimism and disastrous helplessness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I did too (maybe it was because of history, lol)...really felt like something might pop there. Well next fri-sat storm was the catalyst for reinforcing the 50/50 and helping to build blocking in NAO region so yeah......gulp. But there is a signal for something later next weekend into early the following week but hey....one day at a time right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: its a valid idea though. When you can grab the pebble from my hand you will have learned grasshopper ........ Hey.... I am dating myself right. I bet you know where that line is from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well next fri-sat storm was the catalyst for reinforcing the 50/50 and helping to build blocking in NAO region so yeah......gulp. But there is a signal for something later next weekend into early the following week but hey....one day at a time right? True...maybe we can get it on PD or the day after (hopefully!) I did notice that wonderful red over Greenland the 18z showed around that time, so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So we had been ticking closer....11 days....then 10.....then we were within 9 days....and yesterday day 8. But we pushed things back to day 10+ is where we're at again? One of those is counting down to pattern change and one is counting down to a legitimate threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 -NAO is nice on 18z GFS at the end. I wonder why it only shows up during -PNA recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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