The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

[Jandurin]

How many solid 6" or more events do we get ever in winter is a better question

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

How many solid 6" or more events do we get ever in winter is a better question

In the good winters we can manage 2 or 3...or we can get one big hit. All the winters that BWI measured 20" or more had at least one or the other.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Can you get them to turn all their fans to face the NW and blow that ridge up into the NAO space for us?

All i see is cutters thru 384

Pretty uninspiring 12zGEFS run.  Totally lost the blocking in the long range.  Does press the boundary south some and get us cold day 12 on but do we have any optimism the boundary would hold south of us when a wave approaches with a -PNA and no blocking?  But its just one run, the GEFS is jumpy, 6z was a great run.  I guess I will wait.  Looked at the MSLP and Convection in the PAC and both still indicate severely -SOI and MJO phase 1 towards the end so not sure why it degraded the pattern.  This will go down as one of the worst epic fails ever for my specific location if we finally get the MJO and SOI to cooperate and somehow don't get the typical positive response after they muted our nino pattern all winter long.  

[Jandurin]

This is an abnormal winter. It's been very wet. Just need to time the cold and wet.

2015 we had like 3 8" snows in a row or something in late February/March.

[Fozz]

9 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

How many solid 6" or more events do we get ever in winter is a better question

I expect 1/year on average.

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

How many solid 6" or more events do we get ever in winter is a better question

That is highly variable.  For my location I have always had at least 1, but I have had a couple years with only 1.  The most I have had in a single season is 7 I believe.  

[Jandurin]

That is true, but I was more asking Maestro to consider his location.

I assume you meant to say you've never had less than 1.

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill  I didn't like the mslp and h5 look on the 12z GEFS but the snow mean looked good so I decided to look into just how bad the algorithm is screwing it up.  I really bad.  E9 for instance gives me 6" of snow day 11 from a storm that cuts to Chicago and the precip type algorithm says I get maybe a few hours of ice then rain...  There are others.  In reality the GEFS has almost unanimous support of the op with cutter after cutter after cutter through day 15.  Yet somehow it "sees" snow on that mean map.  In some cases its not even ice...its 34 degree rain and gets counted as snow.  Its seriously off and those maps are completely useless.  We knew that already but its worse than I thought.  

[frd]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pretty uninspiring 12zGEFS run.  Totally lost the blocking in the long range.  Does press the boundary south some and get us cold day 12 on but do we have any optimism the boundary would hold south of us when a wave approaches with a -PNA and no blocking? 

It's pretty amazing how the models flip and flop every 6 hours. Barely any consistency ever. Nightly model runs always change by the AM.  The AM changes at 12z. 

I mean in the old days, like last year, LOL we would get 4 to 7 days of crap runs  at a  times then switch to 5 or more days showing a great pattern. It has been a long time since  I have seen the models with such an eratic behavior. 

Also of note, besides JB. , most long range forecasters have remained rather quiet.     

I am already thinking about the consequences for the summer if we never really get cold again in terms of Atlantic SSTs.   

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill  I didn't like the mslp and h5 look on the 12z GEFS but the snow mean looked good so I decided to look into just how bad the algorithm is screwing it up.  I really bad.  E9 for instance gives me 6" of snow day 11 from a storm that cuts to Chicago and the precip type algorithm says I get maybe a few hours of ice then rain...  There are others.  In reality the GEFS has almost unanimous support of the op with cutter after cutter after cutter through day 15.  Yet somehow it "sees" snow on that mean map.  In some cases its not even ice...its 34 degree rain and gets counted as snow.  Its seriously off and those maps are completely useless.  We knew that already but its worse than I thought.  

The GEFS are worthless. I've been saying this for awhile now. They swing too wildly and they always overinflate snow totals by huge margins.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

It's pretty amazing how the models flip and flop every 6 hours. Barely any consistency ever. Nightly model runs always change by the AM.  The AM changes at 12z. 

I mean in the old days, like last year, LOL we would get 4 to 7 days of crap runs  at a  times then switch to 5 or more days showing a great pattern. It has been a long time since  I have seen the models with such an eratic behavior. 

Also of note, besides JB. , most long range forecasters have remained rather quiet.     

I am already thinking about the consequences for the summer if we never really get cold again in terms of Atlantic SSTs.   

I am not going to react much to one GEFS run.  But some of the changes happen early on.  Yesterday there was a serious move towards some hard core blocking around day 9/10.  That is just gone all of a sudden on the GEFS.  That isn't day 15.  Let's see what the EPS has to say soon.  If the EPS abandons the blocking again then I might be more inclined to worry.  

[psuhoffman]

OK today has kind of sucked WRT guidance so far so I will try to post something optimistic...

I could see how we end up with a big storm from this progression after day 10.  The system cutting through the lakes is going to get stuck under the block in the 50/50 space...that energy coming through California swings east under the block and... maybe 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK today has kind of sucked WRT guidance so far so I will try to post something optimistic...

I could see how we end up with a big storm from this progression after day 10.  The system cutting through the lakes is going to get stuck under the block in the 50/50 space...that energy coming through California swings east under the block and... maybe 

Man I hope so...I HOPE we are tracking a legit threat inside of d7 by the middle of next week.

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Can you get them to turn all their fans to face the NW and blow that ridge up into the NAO space for us?

I will do what I can! One of the people on my team tends to blow a lot of hot air. I will make sure to point him in the right direction!

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Pretty uninspiring 12zGEFS run.  Totally lost the blocking in the long range.  Does press the boundary south some and get us cold day 12 on but do we have any optimism the boundary would hold south of us when a wave approaches with a -PNA and no blocking?  But its just one run, the GEFS is jumpy, 6z was a great run.  I guess I will wait.  Looked at the MSLP and Convection in the PAC and both still indicate severely -SOI and MJO phase 1 towards the end so not sure why it degraded the pattern.  This will go down as one of the worst epic fails ever for my specific location if we finally get the MJO and SOI to cooperate and somehow don't get the typical positive response after they muted our nino pattern all winter long.  

That would really be the icing on the cake for many areas in the east that were expecting a good winter...  I did this post on twitter by Jason Furtado:

Upcoming paper by my grad student shows what is almost exactly projected by the models for mid-Feb. The MJO 7+8 pattern with a weak stratospheric polar vortex promotes more SE US ridging and a SW/NE trough orientation from the Rockies into central Canada. 1/2

Does look similar to the crap trough access we see, personally I'm not sure there is enough data to back this up. What we are seeing is more likely just be the typical lag effect of the MJO. It did spend a decent amount of time at a strong amplitude in 6/7 so one would think it may take some time to get things right after that. I'm still hoping we will just see big changes pop up in the day 8-10 period on models once the favorable MJO forcing gets closer in time and quickly moves forward in time. Problem is time is running short if we have to wait until 3rd week of Feb.

If the weather directly following a snow mitigates any need to go out and shovel or ability to take my kids out to play in it my enjoyment of said event is greatly reduced. Obviously the later you get in the season the more likely that outcome becomes.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK today has kind of sucked WRT guidance so far so I will try to post something optimistic...

I could see how we end up with a big storm from this progression after day 10.  The system cutting through the lakes is going to get stuck under the block in the 50/50 space...that energy coming through California swings east under the block and... maybe 

So we had been ticking closer....11 days....then 10.....then we were within 9 days....and yesterday day 8. But we pushed things back to day 10+ is where we're at again? 

[Amped]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So we had been ticking closer....11 days....then 10.....then we were within 9 days....and yesterday day 8. But we pushed things back to day 10+ is where we're at again? 

Winter is always 10 days away.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Winter is always 10 days away.

Except when its 10 months which it will be come March.  Still I hold out hope that something is askew with the current ensemble look especially the GEFS. 

[Ji]

so what the purpose of the GEFS? If it shows weenie pattern for 9 straight runs and then show a bad pattern for the last run?

[Ji]

EPS is consisent with the SE ridge and the -NAO and 50 50 low.  EPO is terrible---should be a heck of a battle that we end up losing. Looks better D11-15 haha

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So we had been ticking closer....11 days....then 10.....then we were within 9 days....and yesterday day 8. But we pushed things back to day 10+ is where we're at again? 

I said Feb 20 as my target a while ago... you all keep jumping on "threats" before that

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS is consisent with the SE ridge and the -NAO and 50 50 low.  EPO is terrible---should be a heck of a battle that we end up losing. Looks better D11-15 haha

I thought it was an improvement, it wasn't enough this run...but it adjusted the trough axis east some and by day 15 is starting to shove the se ridge out.  The trough east of Hawaii is better.  EPO starting to make progress towards maybe morphing into a PNA at the end..which is what the weeklies and cfs do.  Blocking still there from day 8 on... one of the best 50/50 looks ever (and the 50/50 is our number one telleconnectors to snow).  There was a LOT more to like than dislike this run.  The ONLY thing to dislike was the SE ridge day 10-14, but its temporary, and I am not even that sure its going to be that strong.  If the euro keeps adjusting the trough east a little bit in a few runs it wont even be a problem anymore.  

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS is consisent with the SE ridge and the -NAO and 50 50 low.  EPO is terrible---should be a heck of a battle that we end up losing. Looks better D11-15 haha

It isnt a warm ridge though lol...  this is the temp anomaly right in the middle of that SE ridge

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I thought it was an improvement, it wasn't enough this run...but it adjusted the trough axis east some and by day 15 is starting to shove the se ridge out.  The trough east of Hawaii is better.  EPO starting to make progress towards maybe morphing into a PNA at the end..which is what the weeklies and cfs do.  Blocking still there from day 8 on... one of the best 50/50 looks ever (and the 50/50 is our number one telleconnectors to snow).  There was a LOT more to like than dislike this run.  The ONLY thing to dislike was the SE ridge day 10-14, but its temporary, and I am not even that sure its going to be that strong.  If the euro keeps adjusting the trough east a little bit in a few runs it wont even be a problem anymore.  

I've been busy lately but when I have had the chance to look at h5 panels, the persistent 50-50 vortex really stands out. Even runs where the ridging over GL is on the weak side, that 50-50 is there. Today's EPS run has one of the better NA looks towards D15 that I have seen in recent runs. With that kind of general look showing up on the reg, I am inclined to think at some point things will align such that we see a legit chance for a big winter storm or 2, even with a less than friendly EPAC.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It isnt a warm ridge though lol...  this is the temp anomaly right in the middle of that SE ridge

I like this....I like this alot. If we didnt have the se ridge and/or the EPO was raging while the neg nao and 50/50 was raging we would be overwhelmed with cold. This look at least gives us plenty of chances and threats. As far as my post above I was honestly asking if we had seen a push back or delay of the nice looks. Glad to see nothing has really deteriorated. Game on.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It isnt a warm ridge though lol...  this is the temp anomaly right in the middle of that SE ridge

 

I thought the MSLP panels d10-15 look really good. HP anchored north of us and it's blocked by the 50/50. The "ridge" is probably nothing more than above normal heights in the end but with the pressure pattern in place it's the opposite of warm. I liked the run in general. 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It isnt a warm ridge though lol...  this is the temp anomaly right in the middle of that SE ridge

yea..i know...its the 2nd thing i check after seeeing a big red heigh anomoly over us at 500mb. thats why i said it will be a heck of a battle

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I've been busy lately but when I have had the chance to look at h5 panels, the persistent 50-50 vortex really stands out. Even runs where the ridging over GL is on the week side, that 50-50 is there. Today's EPS run has one of the better NA looks towards D15 that I have seen in recent runs. With that kind of look showing up on the reg, I am inclined to think at some point things will align such that we get a legit chance  for a big winter storm or 2, even with a less than friendly EPAC.

Yea I liked it a lot.  I am not even sure the EPAC is going to stay unfavorable.  There are signs towards the end the EPO is shifting south and pressing into the west coast and likely to become a PNA ridge.  The EPO is going positive but that's ok, in late Feb into March we want that epo ridge out of there...wavelengths are too short, all its doing this time of year is digging the western trough and pumping the SE ridge.  As long as we have NAO blocking to prevent a PAC Jet onslaught we are good with that.   Unless the EPO shifts way east and links with a PNA ridge...or has a TPV displaced in eastern Canada its more harmful than helpful this time of year.  Get it out of there, let some PNA ridging develop, and we can work with the icebox air left over in Canada this time of year so long as there is blocking to prevent it from getting scoured out by the PAC.  By the time it moderates our climo clock would be running out anyways.  

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I thought the MSLP panels d10-15 look really good. HP anchored north of us and it's blocked by the 50/50. The "ridge" is probably nothing more than above normal heights in the end but with the pressure pattern in place it's the opposite of warm. I liked the run in general. 

Agreed.  It can't be all that much of a problem since I count 15 EPS members that miss us to the SOUTH with a snowstorm in the long range!  That was actually the only reason the snow mean wasn't higher in our area day 10-15, the snow is shotgunned all over the east coast during that time.  Equal parts misses to the north, south, and flush hits.  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea..i know...its the 2nd thing i check after seeeing a big red heigh anomoly over us at 500mb. thats why i said it will be a heck of a battle

I think we might win this one though...

[Ji]

@psuhoffman I was wondering why i couldnt remember any KU's or even good storms between Feb 20 and March 1st. Lol..there hasnt been any

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Northeast_Snowfall_Impact_Scale_winter_storms

 

Here is the list i found

February 22–28, 1969

February 22–23, 1987 (Lame ass)

February 25–27, 2010(that didnt impact us)

 

the Feb 2015 storm didnt even make that list....

 

my guess is that usually that week is drained since the week before then is really snow typically