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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That looks awful 

Lol no it doesn’t...it’s decent with that blocking...but we knew it looked that way because that’s just the end of last nights eps. The weeklies start day 16.  Plus that transitions into a great look as the blocking slowly shifts the trough east.

This is all contingent on the eps (and gefs lately) progression being correct. The transition week would be the risk of sw to ne waves. Think the pattern now but shifted south. After that we would be in the more classic pna NAO pattern needing coastal amplification. Hecs hunting as ji would say. 

I can see a mix of feb 2003 transitioning to March 1958/1960/1962 if i channel my inner JB. 

Its a damn good run. Whether it’s right is another matter. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This panel is the greatest risk of snow.  The 2 after are the greatest risk of a big storm. 

I am, of course, across the pond this week so it will happen and I will miss it! I am certain! LOL! I mean, if it comes true! I would be so sad! No help in any analysis - just would be so sad!

 

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36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Im fine w that if the mixed ends up >50% frozen. If at the end it was a bunch of 1-2” washed away by rain like the last few epo gradient patterns I’ll pass. 

Same. That's why I'm about to to toss the upcoming threat (unless it becomes snowier as we get closer, of course! :D) because it seems messy overall...a sloppy 2-3 inches ain't gonna get me to climo!! Any chance we see a clean snow look by PD weekend? Lol

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can see a mix of feb 2003 transitioning to March 1958/1960/1962 if i channel my inner JB. 

Its a damn good run. Whether it’s right is another matter. 

Ah.......to enhance your "channeling"  experience may I suggest a lovely incense candle.    Seriously though lets see what happens next. But,  I can dig 1958.   

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In regards to the Pac 

 

from a very good poster at 33andrain , he knows his stuff. Called for this warm period three weeks ago and right on target, when others stated no way, it is going to be cold. 

<<

In other news....

250hPaJet_prob_1.gif

Jet retraction peaks on the 11th. We are going a bit back and forth. Also good news is a tint towards the equator in terms of the STJ.

 

That last week of the month looks pretty good for snowfall chances. The MJO is certainly a big player in that

 

>>>>

 

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol no it doesn’t...it’s decent with that blocking...but we knew it looked that way because that’s just the end of last nights eps. The weeklies start day 16.  Plus that transitions into a great look as the blocking slowly shifts the trough east.

This is all contingent on the eps (and gefs lately) progression being correct. The transition week would be the risk of sw to ne waves. Think the pattern now but shifted south. After that we would be in the more classic pna NAO pattern needing coastal amplification. Hecs hunting as ji would say. 

I can see a mix of feb 2003 transitioning to March 1958/1960/1962 if i channel my inner JB. 

Its a damn good run. Whether it’s right is another matter. 

Ash Wednesday '62 .  Havent had a stalled cutoff spring nor'Easter like that in forever it seems. 

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6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly  cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers.

Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this.

You're not in the Northeast but you are still gonna get crushed by heavy pure snow later this month. May even happen in March as well. Crushed as in totally annihilated, totally destroyed, everything shuts down for days and days. Good times.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok seriously someone explain to me why if we have...

-NAO, 50/50, -epo, -soi, mjo phase 8/1

we can’t get the trough out of the west day 10-15?  What is pumping that eastern ridge?

What am I missing here?

That AK ridge is a monster, but the location/orientation sucks, allowing for a downstream mean trough in the west. The -NAO/50-50 combo will have to be in beast mode to mitigate that and force lower heights over the east. EPS is trying to get it done.

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok seriously someone explain to me why if we have...

-NAO, 50/50, -epo, -soi, mjo phase 8/1

we can’t get the trough out of the west day 10-15?  What is pumping that eastern ridge?

What am I missing here?

I dug into this a little bit to see if there was something to do with ssts in the GOM or Caribbean that may be driving this feature. Ssts don't show anything *too* crazy outside of some cool blobs in the GOM and a farther west displaced Gulf Stream (this actually aided to fuel another pattern feature this year but for fear of being run out of the country I wont bring it up again).

I dont even know if there are forcing values that are recorded outside of the PAC and enso regions but one would think some sort of tropical forcing irt water temps would be toying with the SE ridge feature being this persistent. If forcing (mjo) was driving features upstream them why wouldnt something similar on or close to our side be driving the pattern in the atl?

anoma.2.7.2019.gif

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That AK ridge is a monster, but the location/orientation sucks, allowing for a downstream mean trough in the west. The -NAO/50-50 combo will have to be in beast mode to mitigate that and force lower heights over the east. EPS is trying to get it done.

Most of the times that look rolls into a good pattern. 

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