aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, frd said: fyi weeklies if you care courtesy 33andrain That looks awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 last one thats enough I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That looks awful Lol no it doesn’t...it’s decent with that blocking...but we knew it looked that way because that’s just the end of last nights eps. The weeklies start day 16. Plus that transitions into a great look as the blocking slowly shifts the trough east. This is all contingent on the eps (and gefs lately) progression being correct. The transition week would be the risk of sw to ne waves. Think the pattern now but shifted south. After that we would be in the more classic pna NAO pattern needing coastal amplification. Hecs hunting as ji would say. I can see a mix of feb 2003 transitioning to March 1958/1960/1962 if i channel my inner JB. Its a damn good run. Whether it’s right is another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, frd said: last one thats enough I guess I can see my March 58 redux in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, frd said: next This panel is the greatest risk of snow. The 2 after are the greatest risk of a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This panel is the greatest risk of snow. The 2 after are the greatest risk of a big storm. I am, of course, across the pond this week so it will happen and I will miss it! I am certain! LOL! I mean, if it comes true! I would be so sad! No help in any analysis - just would be so sad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Im fine w that if the mixed ends up >50% frozen. If at the end it was a bunch of 1-2” washed away by rain like the last few epo gradient patterns I’ll pass. Same. That's why I'm about to to toss the upcoming threat (unless it becomes snowier as we get closer, of course! ) because it seems messy overall...a sloppy 2-3 inches ain't gonna get me to climo!! Any chance we see a clean snow look by PD weekend? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I tend to agree...just being guarded given my fail so far. i am a bit perturbed/distubed by how many midwest/ohio valley storm the GFS/FV3/Euro is showing in long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can see a mix of feb 2003 transitioning to March 1958/1960/1962 if i channel my inner JB. Its a damn good run. Whether it’s right is another matter. Ah.......to enhance your "channeling" experience may I suggest a lovely incense candle. Seriously though lets see what happens next. But, I can dig 1958. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Euro weeklies match the cfs and jma exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 In regards to the Pac from a very good poster at 33andrain , he knows his stuff. Called for this warm period three weeks ago and right on target, when others stated no way, it is going to be cold. << In other news.... Jet retraction peaks on the 11th. We are going a bit back and forth. Also good news is a tint towards the equator in terms of the STJ. That last week of the month looks pretty good for snowfall chances. The MJO is certainly a big player in that >>>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I count 6 separate snow/mix events on the GFS over the next 16 days. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Lol no it doesn’t...it’s decent with that blocking...but we knew it looked that way because that’s just the end of last nights eps. The weeklies start day 16. Plus that transitions into a great look as the blocking slowly shifts the trough east. This is all contingent on the eps (and gefs lately) progression being correct. The transition week would be the risk of sw to ne waves. Think the pattern now but shifted south. After that we would be in the more classic pna NAO pattern needing coastal amplification. Hecs hunting as ji would say. I can see a mix of feb 2003 transitioning to March 1958/1960/1962 if i channel my inner JB. Its a damn good run. Whether it’s right is another matter. Ash Wednesday '62 . Havent had a stalled cutoff spring nor'Easter like that in forever it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On the lighter side: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 GFS late week. Nice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS late week. Nice setup. Well, it's February, we COULD have some blocking, and it's PD weekend...potential? (IF we are meant to get a hecs this month...historically, you'd think it would happen then, lol But, ya never know!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Fv3 setup is a transfer to a coastal near OBX but again at this range another very workable look/solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Both have the 50/50 even tho the setup upstream evolves rather differently. And neither is a hit obviously but at this range the general ideas being tossed around are certainly workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Uh oh... too much blocking. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Uh oh... too much blocking. Ugh Don't tell me you're getting bored again...you're trolling, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers. Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this. You're not in the Northeast but you are still gonna get crushed by heavy pure snow later this month. May even happen in March as well. Crushed as in totally annihilated, totally destroyed, everything shuts down for days and days. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Holy ridge bridge with a 50/50 day 10 EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Ok seriously someone explain to me why if we have... -NAO, 50/50, -epo, -soi, mjo phase 8/1 we can’t get the trough out of the west day 10-15? What is pumping that eastern ridge? What am I missing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Crazy CAD signatures for this range on eps. Makes sense with the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Ok seriously someone explain to me why if we have... -NAO, 50/50, -epo, -soi, mjo phase 8/1 we can’t get the trough out of the west day 10-15? What is pumping that eastern ridge? What am I missing here? That AK ridge is a monster, but the location/orientation sucks, allowing for a downstream mean trough in the west. The -NAO/50-50 combo will have to be in beast mode to mitigate that and force lower heights over the east. EPS is trying to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Oh, well hi there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Ok seriously someone explain to me why if we have... -NAO, 50/50, -epo, -soi, mjo phase 8/1 we can’t get the trough out of the west day 10-15? What is pumping that eastern ridge? What am I missing here? I dug into this a little bit to see if there was something to do with ssts in the GOM or Caribbean that may be driving this feature. Ssts don't show anything *too* crazy outside of some cool blobs in the GOM and a farther west displaced Gulf Stream (this actually aided to fuel another pattern feature this year but for fear of being run out of the country I wont bring it up again). I dont even know if there are forcing values that are recorded outside of the PAC and enso regions but one would think some sort of tropical forcing irt water temps would be toying with the SE ridge feature being this persistent. If forcing (mjo) was driving features upstream them why wouldnt something similar on or close to our side be driving the pattern in the atl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 46 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Oh, well hi there.... Under 10 days and PD weekend. It’s a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: That AK ridge is a monster, but the location/orientation sucks, allowing for a downstream mean trough in the west. The -NAO/50-50 combo will have to be in beast mode to mitigate that and force lower heights over the east. EPS is trying to get it done. Most of the times that look rolls into a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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