aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: the EPS snowfall mean sucks...its only 6 but 3 is from an event a few days away....so the other 3 are in the next 10 days after that. yikes! You must have bladder leaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You must have bladder leaks The other day he was whining because it was 3” for the whole 15 days. Now it has 3” the first 7 days and another 3” the last 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 the only mean acceptable is 10" across the entire conus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: The other day he was whining because it was 3” for the whole 15 days. Now it has 3” the first 7 days and another 3” the last 8. I'm dead serious here....and I'm sure others do it too but Ji believes deep down that the more he complains and says winter over that somehow magically the models start showing more snow. Maybe he will admit it but after all of these years we all have a sense of each others personality defects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The other day he was whining because it was 3” for the whole 15 days. Now it has 3” the first 7 days and another 3” the last 8. 3 in the last 8 sucks because thats our epic period lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 in the last 8 sucks because thats our epic period lol Ok... as for the se ridge... we will see but all winter the day 10-15 has trended towards the tropical forcing analogs. That’s been bad most of the time. I’m expecting the same in our favor now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Ok... as for the se ridge... we will see but all winter the day 10-15 has trended towards the tropical forcing analogs. That’s been bad most of the time. I’m expecting the same in our favor now. @Bob Chill was saying how weenieish the 12z GEFS was, but it has a SE ridge the entire time as well and has the -NAO/50-50 combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @Bob Chill was saying how weenieish the 12z GEFS was, but it has a SE ridge the entire time as well and has the -NAO/50-50 combo. Yea I posted a frame from the 12z gfs where we were under a big ridge and snowing. It could work that way. But I still suspect that se ridge is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Weird look on EPS. Great -NAO. Best 50/50 I’ve ever seen in a day 15 ensemble. Trough east of Hawaii. Looking at pressure and precip day 10 soi is negative and mjo should be in 8/1. But it still has a -pna and SE ridge. I’m just going to assume it’s wrong since everything says there should be a trough in the east. I know the answer to this is yes as anything is possible, but could the SE ridge holding actually be correct and one of those other teleconnections or indices wrong? And if so, if there was one thing driving the se ridge in contrast to the good MJO and soi looks what do you think it could be? On the plus side, that se ridge pretty much gets squashed down on other guidance so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 There's been discussion around that MJO Phase 8/1 in Ninos with early season SSWs DOES correlate to a SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There's been discussion around that MJO Phase 8/1 in Ninos with early season SSWs DOES correlate to a SE ridge. I know I haven't been paying attention as much lately, but are we actually in a Nino? If anything its a warm neutral I would think. Either way guidance likes some SE ridge action, for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There's been discussion around that MJO Phase 8/1 in Ninos with early season SSWs DOES correlate to a SE ridge. Furtado’s study? I thought that was only for phase 7/8. That goes all the way into 8/1 and 1? SOAB! Ok so just venting here then...because a sswe is supposed to be this god darn awesome thing and all...so in a nino with a early season ssw WHAT FREAKING PHASE do we want? Are they somehow all bad?!? Obviously that’s not directed at you wxusaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Furtado’s study? I thought that was only for phase 7/8. That goes all the way into 8/1 and 1? SOAB! Ok so just venting here then...because a sswe is supposed to be this god darn awesome thing and all...so in a nino with a early season ssw WHAT FREAKING PHASE do we want? Are they somehow all bad?!? Obviously that’s not directed at you wxusaf. I could be wrong, I was just going off memory. Could just be 7/8. On a related note, I wonder if the SSW *does* end up actually saving this winter from being a raging dumpster fire for all of the eastern CONUS. Will be an interesting study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Man, ensembles are all over the place! Better go with MoJO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I could be wrong, I was just going off memory. Could just be 7/8. On a related note, I wonder if the SSW *does* end up actually saving this winter from being a raging dumpster fire for all of the eastern CONUS. Will be an interesting study. Other than one tpv displacement that only lead to 5.5” of snow in my yard...I’ve seen no sign its been of benefit. And now I see chatter that it’s lingering effects could be disrupting the typical response to favorable tropical forcing. So how it’s helping us so far is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 hours ago, Ji said: the euro did the most complete about face for this weekend...wow...00z had a MECS...12z has a storm way up north Why do you seem shocked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of early next week. Like the GFS said hell if I know just post the same scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of early next week. Like the GFS said hell if I know just post the same scenario You would think the pattern would be better by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of early next week. Like the GFS said hell if I know just post the same scenario You would think the pattern would be better by then Good one. Won’t look like that anyway. Maybe Friday will deliver. Looking at the models is folly so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of early next week. Like the GFS said hell if I know just post the same scenario You would think the pattern would be better by then I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and 50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and 50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at.We might have to wait till week 3(lol) to get the cleanest looks but I think starting next week every threat is a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and 50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at. Yeah I meant the op runs. Agree things are virtually playing out like predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think the ensembles did a very good job with the upcoming 10 day period. We discussed the battle zone between the se ridge and 50/50s for days when it was uber long range. Now here we are seeing events potentially play out exactly like one would expect with the upper air pattern that was advertised in a range that ralph said we shouldn't even look at. We might have to wait till week 3(lol) to get the cleanest looks but I think starting next week every threat is a threat The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers. Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers. Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this. Especially this time of year. Cold dry warm wet for 3 more weeks and Winter is just about in the books. I’ll take active chips fall mode any February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The battlezone ridge alignment is what delivers multiple qpf events in quick successsion. Much rather have that and deal with mixing than waiting in a mostly cold/dry +pna/-nao regime. Active is far more fun even if it means lots of mixed events. I've had my fill of cold and snowcover this year. Now it's all about piling up numbers. Do i prefer big clean storms with lasting snowpack? Of course but this is the MA and not the NE. Mixed events are our speciality over the years. Let's do this. Im fine w that if the mixed ends up >50% frozen. If at the end it was a bunch of 1-2” washed away by rain like the last few epo gradient patterns I’ll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 @Bob Chill even up here it’s hit or miss. There have been some epic epo patterns that built a glaciers here like feb 1993 and feb 1994 but more often the MO without blocking is 1-2” and a lot of rain. Not always. I’ll feel a lot better about our chances once real blocking sets up and there is a locked in 50/50. This setup was almost perfect but the NAO breaks down 24 hours too soon and might open the door to a cut. For anyone else wondering we would want the NAO to relax and break if we had a +pna but with a -pna it needs to hold enough to force storms under us despite a bad trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Im fine w that if the mixed ends up >50% frozen. If at the end it was a bunch of 1-2” washed away by rain like the last few epo gradient patterns I’ll pass. Based on the hp strength and placements we keep seeing, I don't see that as a problem. Get a few of those and one will prob hit a wall of confluence and force the mess under us and hit us pretty flush. No shortage of 1040s+ showing up in between shortwaves. Even though the atl isn't ideal, it's still a lot better than this winter's base state so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Based on the hp strength and placements we keep seeing, I don't see that as a problem. Get a few of those and one will prob hit a wall of confluence and force the mess under us and hit us pretty flush. No shortage of 1040s+ showing up in between shortwaves. Even though the atl isn't ideal, it's still a lot better than this winter's base state so far. I tend to agree...just being guarded given my fail so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 fyi weeklies if you care courtesy 33andrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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